It was a horrendous 12 months when the improbable happened. Only 4 of our pros had gainers while nine failed to even match the 2.6% loss of our S&P 500 benchmark. Fear not. The correction created bargains. Here are ten for tomorrow!
By Bob Flaherty and his friend Arnaldo Arroyo
Our late guru Sir John Templeton taught us to look forward not backwards. Disruption hit almost every field including biotech, medical instruments, the cloud, finance and of course energy. Let's turn yesterday's negatives into positives. The correction created bargains everywhere. With nearly every CEO arguing that their stock is undervalued and their long term outlook is great, here are our Favorites of the Famous pros' ten selections for tomorrow.
First let's dust off home plate. Please remember in this litigious, politically- correct era readers should be aware that all of our Favorites of the Famous stock pickers including Editor Bob Flaherty may have conflicts of interest involving their stock choices. On the other hand none of the companies selected paid to be chosen or knew ahead of time they were one of this year's picks. No front running allowed.
With interest rates abroad even below zero, bonds are hardly yielding enough to offset the inflationary loss of the purchasing power of your dollar. For 2016 equities are our answer. Where else can investors prudently go?
Let's start off with a trio who deserve our special thanks. Each picked a stock in our very first Favorites of the Famous back in l981 and has continued to help our readers for each of these past 35 years.
Fellow Harvard man Tom Putnam is descended from the Patriot at Bunker Hill who ordered, "Don't fire until you see the whites of their eyes!" For each of the 35 years Tom has always given us a solid steady new pick.
His Fennimore Asset Management has three no loads FAM Value Fund, FAM Equity-Income Fund and FAM Small Cap Fund. (www.famfunds.com ) For his fund portfolios Tom seeks not only survivors in a correction, but winners in an economic rally. His team finds quality companies that have good market share positions not only in their industries, but have strong characteristics of generating free cash flow accompanied by balance sheets with low debt.
Last year, Tom's favorite pick was Fort Worth, TX-based Hallmark Financial Services, Inc. (Nasdaq: HALL -10.45, recently 11.26), up 8%. This insurance holding company through its subsidiaries engages in the sale of property and casualty insurance products to businesses and individuals as well as providing other insurance related services. "We are definitely still attracted to Hallmark Financial Services," says Tom.
This year Tom sights are on Birmingham, AL-based National Commerce Corp. (Nasdaq: NCOM - 23.50). It is engaged in the business of banking through its wholly owned banking subsidiary, National Bank of Commerce. Through the bank, it provides an array of financial services to businesses, business owners and professionals through eight full-service banking offices in Alabama (Birmingham, Huntsville, Auburn-Opelika, and Baldwin County) and seven full-service banking offices in Central Florida (Longwood, Winter Park, Orlando, Oviedo, Kissimmee and Vero Beach).
"The short story is that this bank is essentially run by the same group of people that ran the old Alabama National," says Tom. "So this is a 'putting the band back together' story."
Today the bank trades for about 1.5x tangible book value. "If National Commerce can reach the profitability levels of the old Alabama National, then this stock should trade at a much higher valuation," he explains.
The old Alabama National began as a very small Birmingham bank and was built into one of the finest southern banks around, with operations across Alabama, Georgia, and Florida. "Alabama National was a highly profitable, well managed bank," says Tom. "They were also smart enough to announce their sale to Royal Bank of Canada in 2007 (closed February 2008), just before the cycle turned ugly, for about 2.9x tangible book value and 20x earnings."
Many of the old Alabama National executives and board members purchased control of another struggling Birmingham bank in 2010. From this seed has grown operations across Alabama (e.g., Huntsville, Gulf Shores) and into Florida (Vero Beach, Daytona Beach).
"They are certainly not operating at their old standards, as the return on equity is only about 6%, and that is the opportunity," says Tom. "They are growing very quickly and definitely have laid the foundations to build another high quality bank. We believe as they continue to grow, in part by calling on old customers, they will regain the efficiencies that come from scale. Return on equity will return to the 10% to 15% range."
Forbes reporter Bob Flaherty wrote a positive story when unknown Mario Gabelli was managing just $3 million. Almost alone Mario was finding bargains in micro caps when these orphans were even more out of favor than they are today. Readers went crazy for all of Mario's very low P/E stocks with good managements, strong financial fundamentals and great growth prospects. When Wall Street's gloom disappeared as it always does, Mario's picks all doubled or tripled.
The son of Italian immigrants, Mario Gabelli was born in the Bronx and went to Fordham Preparatory School there. Next he won a scholarship and graduated from Fordham University summa cum laude. Adding an MBA from Columbia and seasoned at a Wall Street research boutique, Mario started up his own tiny firm in l977. Today it's GAMCO Investors (NYSE: GBL) with billions under management and numerous Gabelli Funds (www.gabelli.com).
Now a financial rock star, Mario believes that quality micro and small cap stocks are again so undervalued that the group offers outstanding bargains. Many have become both value and growth stocks. Last year's pick of cloud play Internap Network Services Corp. (Nasdaq: INAP- 10.03, recently 2.58) down -74% was a rare strikeout.
A headliner at Peter Sidoti's excellent Spring 2016 Emerging Growth Convention, Mario extoled how the correction and the flight to the safety into large caps had created a unique small and micro- cap opportunity. "It's a great time to be investing in small companies in America!"
For those who want a diversified approach Mario mentioned Teton Westwood Mighty Mites Fund, (WMMAX). He named the fund after a Pop Warner football league for youngsters. His idea was that the stocks like the players would grow stronger and prosper.
Next he recommended this year's Favorites of the Famous pick. Akron, OH-based Myers Industries, Inc. (NYSE: MYE -12.96) is a diversified industrial manufacturer and distributor of consumable products for a diverse set of markets.
Through its Buckhorn, Akro-Mills, Jamco, and Scepter brands, Myers is a leading manufacturer of polymer products such as reusable material handling containers, pallets and fuel tanks, as well as a host of rubber and plastic products including tire repair kits. The company is also the largest distributor of tools, equipment and supplies for the tire, wheel and under-vehicle service industry in the U.S.
"With just under 30 million shares, debt of $180 million and an EPS approaching $1.00 per share next year, the stock is a good example of a turnaround story that has just started," says Mario.
"We regard both businesses as solid franchises with strong cash flow characteristics that operate in attractive end markets. In particular, the distribution business is set to benefit from the effects that low fuel prices have had on consumer driving behavior. U.S. vehicular miles driven reached a record 3.1 trillion during 2015 - a remarkable figure that naturally drives wear and tear on tires and wheels, necessitating new purchases of the products that Myers provides."
On January 1, 2016, new CEO David Banyard took over the helm of Myers following highly successful stints at both Roper and Danaher. He has already identified several areas for operational improvement and value creation.
The last of our trio we salute for his decades of friendship is Greenwich Village gadfly Ray Dirks. A courageous individual, Ray has fought fearlessly to preserve our endangered right to free speech. While others remained safely silent and regulators slept, he embarrassed the SEC by exposing the huge Equity Funding Fraud. He became a pariah.
Under pressure from the New York Stock Exchange, Ray's employer fired him for doing the right thing. Next a red- faced SEC charged him with insider trading even though he had not personally shorted a single share. Ray just blew the whistle!
Most people would have signed away their reputation by agreeing to a harmless slap-on-the-wrist consent decree.
Not Ray. For years he battled the SEC all the way to the U. S. Supreme Court and won. He is the only person in history which the U.S. Justice Department sided with against the SEC.
Today America's freedom of speech is in jeopardy. Ivy League universities used to encourage every point of view so students could broaden their perspectives and learn. Now they cowardly cancel guest speakers or meetings in fear of protests.
The vital ability of America's journalists to protect sources who leak things which are covered up and shouldn't be hidden continues under attack. Honest reporting of events in China has diminished as giant media parent companies worry about their other more profitable economic interests there. The increasing costs of defending libel suits reduce digging. Under the watchdog's nose a new age of monopolistic trusts in airlines, banking, drugs and you- name- it is taking place.
With reduced competition prices soar and ordinary citizens suffer. No wonder airlines can get away with squeezing our bigger bottoms into shrinking uncomfortable seats!
Blame a corrupt Congress serving special interests. That's why our idealistic young people are angry! We all should be.
Worse, with elections approaching voters are uninformed about too many things they have a right to know. Who really funds and is behind all those super PAC attack ads? What have lobbyists sneaked into those big bills at the last moment? For whom and for what? I wish more people had Ray's courage to fight and didn't look the other way.
Now, batter up! While always swinging for the fences and hitting many home runs for us, last year Ray struck out. Rockville, MD-based biotech Neuralstem, Inc. (NYSE: CUR - 2.01, recently 0.81) dropped 59.7%. It is engaged in the development and commercialization of treatments based on human neuronal stem cells and small molecule compounds. He still rates it a buy.
For 2016, Ray's favorite stock pick is Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: HTZ - 10.30), the world's leading car rental company. Based in Estero, FL, Hertz operates about 11,555 rental locations in about 150 countries under the Hertz, Dollar and Thrifty brands. About 70% of its U.S. revenues come from airport locations. Its fleet includes approximately 524,500 cars from Ford, General Motors, Toyota and other manufacturers. While car rental accounts for about 80% of its sales, the company also rents a variety of heavy equipment through about 335 locations in North America, Europe and China.
"HTZ is way down from where it used to sell in the $30s and $40s, but Carl Icahn has a big percentage of it and he thinks the stock is going back to $20 to $24 a share," says Ray. "I also think it's going to be in that range in the next 12 months."
Malaysian -based Arun Pudur, founder and CEO of Celframe Technology Group of Companies springs from an Orthodox Hindu Brahmin family which has linage to Jews of Indian descent. At 13 Arun began fixing bikes, breeding champion dogs before he started his own tech business. He made his first million at 21, his first billion at 26 and at 37 now ranks among the world's richest individuals under 40. He has a great eye for stocks.
Last year, Arun's favorite stock pick was Fujifilm Holdings Corp. (ADR) (OTC: FUJIY- 34.82, recently 39.50), a winner up 13%. While still making camera and photographic supplies, Fuji has built a big business in copiers and flat panel displays and sells special products to the pharmaceutical and optical industries.
"My pick this year is Sintex Industries (BSE: 502742.BO - 75)," begins Arun. "Sintex is the world largest producer of plastic water tanks. It is also Asia's largest manufacturer of corduroy fabrics. Sintex has a strong presence in European, American, African and Asian markets, including France, Germany and the U.S. It is primarily in manufacturing textiles and a wide range of plastic products including prefabricated structures, industrial custom molding products, monolithic constructions and water storage tanks. In the textile segment, the company focuses on niche segments such as men's shirting."
Why buy the stock? "Sintex is a dominant player in the important plastics and textile business segments. The Indian government's emphasis on cleanliness has emerged as an important business driver for financial and overall growth of the company. Demand for prefabricated structures has been driven by the government's (Clean India/Build Toilets) Swaach Bharat initiative.
"Besides, the positive business and consumer sentiment improved the performance of the automobile sector (four-wheelers and two-wheelers) leading to robust growth for custom molding. We expect that the stock price will achieve Rupees 131 in eight to ten months on a current P/E of 7.80x and Fiscal Year 2017 earnings of Rupees 16.75.
"Right now, India is the only economy growing at break neck speed," says Arun. "I call India the re-emerging giant. Look at history. India was the biggest economy until British occupation left its economy in tatters. Now, finally her time has come. India has strong political leadership and is breaking away from family controlled cronyism politics. With a massive population and huge disposable income, Indian markets will grow exponentially in the next decade."
Lauren Templeton, grandniece of Sir John Templeton, and Scott Phillips of Templeton & Phillips Capital Management, LLC preserve value investing and global bargain hunting the Templeton way. They also are our first husband and wife team of contributors.
Lauren's 2015 pick was WH Group (Hong Kong Stock Exchange: 0288.HK: 4.39 HK dollars, recently 5.01), up 14% in a down year.
WH Group is the largest pork company in the world, with number one positions in China, the U.S. and key markets in Europe. It is also the majority shareholder in Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co., Ltd., China's largest meat processing business, and owns Smithfield Foods, Inc., a global food company. Lauren remains very high on this stock. However, we expect a new idea from a Templeton. Graciously she gave us a new stock.
Lauren's new favorite pick is Total S.A. (NYSE: TOT - 45.59), a French multinational integrated oil and gas company. Total's businesses cover the entire oil and gas chain, from crude oil and natural gas exploration and production to power generation, transportation, refining, petroleum product marketing and international crude oil and product trading. With operations in more than 130 countries, Total's products include natural gas, LPG, gasoline, paraffin, diesel, plastic resins, lubricants, adhesives, rubber, asphalt, fertilizers, jet fuel and ethanol, among others.
Hubby Scott's contrarian choice of SandRidge Energy, Inc. (OTC: SDOC - 1.78, recently 0.11), was our only 2015 energy stock pick. Alas the collapse in oil went deeper and lasted longer than expected and the stock plunged 94%.
Expecting to get back into his usual win column, Scott's new favorite is Fairfax Financial Holding Ltd. (TSX: FFH - $714). Fairfax is engaged in property, casualty, life insurance and reinsurance, investment management and insurance claims management. It operates primarily through several subsidiaries, including Odyssey Re, Northbridge Financial, Crum & Forster and Zenith Insurance Company.
At only 24 Princeton basketball star John W. Rogers Jr. started up Chicago-based Ariel Investments in l983. Benefiting from fine steady undervalued picks of growth stocks in Ariel's six no load funds and private accounts, John has made the first African-American founded mutual fund group an outstanding success.
In 2015 John's pick was Lazard Ltd. (NYSE: LAZ - 52.86, recently 38.18), down 28%. The world's leading independent financial advisory and asset management firm, Lazard is based in Hamilton, Bermuda. It operates in 43 cities across 27 countries in Europe, North America, Asia, Australia, the Middle East and Central and South America. Clients include corporations, public funds, sovereign entities, endowments and foundations, labor union funds, financial intermediaries and private clients.
This year, John's favorite pick is Zebra Technologies Corporation (Nasdaq: ZBRA - 68.59), a leading global supplier of asset tracking solutions. The stock currently trades at just 12x future 12 months earnings per share. Headquartered in Lincolnshire, IL, the company's legacy business includes thermal printers that print barcodes and radio frequency identification labels, primarily used in managing global supply chains.
"Despite global uncertainty across some of its key end markets like retail and manufacturing, its solutions are essential investments for customers looking to optimize supply chains and improve operational efficiency," says John.
Since inception, Zebra has sold approximately 12 million printers and today is the leading player with over one-third of the market share. More recently, it acquired Motorola's Enterprise Solutions business, which added ruggedized mobile computers, scanners and software to complement its end-to-end offering.
I smile remembering my first stories when tiny Kaufmann Fund only had about $16 million in assets, $32 million and then $230 million before it joined Federated Investors. Over the decades co-founder Larry Auriana, shared many of his spectacular winners with our readers.
Last May Larry retired as a Federated senior portfolio manager. As of April 30, 2015 the Federated Kaufmann team managed more than $9 billion in equity assets, including the $5.9 billion Federated Kaufmann Fund, the $2.5 billion, Federated Kaufmann Large Cap Fund, the $752 million Federated Kaufmann Small Cap Fund and the $127 million Federated Kaufmann Fund II. Wow! It's a grand legacy to be part of such amazing growth from such a tiny start.
Last year Larry picked Dynavax Technologies Corp. (Nasdaq: DVAX - 22.70, recently 18.18) for the fifth time and it declined 20%. Meanwhile, the FDA accepted for review its application for Dynavax's flagship product Heplisav-B (liver saver). It is in Phase III clinical trials as an investigational adult hepatitis B vaccine, which promises faster, more effective life -saving protection with fewer doses and injections. In China alone 120 million people, about one out of ten of the entire population, are infected. There is a desperate need for an improved vaccination.
As a venture capitalist, not simply a portfolio manager, Larry has raised this baby from infancy. Usually we always prefer new ideas. But his choice delighted Editor Bob Flaherty. Bob's Oct. 23, 2009 Flaherty Special Situation #13 BUY on Dynavax at $1.36 is way up and still open.
Larry remains bullish on his baby but does not have a new idea for 2016.
We thank Larry for his many past winners.
In this flight to safety our 2015 list of new picks did not have a single OTC start up. So Flaherty Financial News President and Publisher Brian Flaherty fixed that. Along with his dad, Brian co-authored our sponsored Nov. 20, 2014 Flaherty Special Situation Newsletter #37 on BioSig Technologies, Inc. (OTCBB: BSGM-1.75, recently 1.45), down 17%. BioSig is in the middle of a shift from mapping to signaling vital information to cardiac doctors treating irregular heartbeats. Millions of lives can be saved if new technology gives surgeons a better picture of what to do. That means much shorter heart operations and many less do overs, not to mention deaths. For 2016 Brian has no new suggestion.
In 2015, Marc Liu of Capitol Isle Partners volunteered Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. (Nasdaq: TNXP-6.12, recently 2.47), down 59.6% in the biotech correction. The company is dedicated to the development of next generation medicines for common yet challenging disorders of the central nervous system. No new pick this year.
What happens when you pick an energy stock in troubled Russia with a P/E of three? Douglas Makepeace of New York City-based Sperry Fund Management, a close friend who was a key country sector advisor to our mutual friend the late Sir John Templeton, borrowed a page from Baron Rothschild to "Buy when there is blood in the streets."
In Russia blood was literally in the streets and the devil had the people by the throat. Still in 2015, Doug returned to this old favorite - which he chose both in 2011, 2012 and 2014 - Russian oil transporter AK Transneft Pfd (TRNFP.ME - 124,060 Rubles, recently 184,500), up a 49% for first place or only 37% in U. S. dollars because of the decline of the Ruble. "The arguments for Transneft are still intact and the stock is cheaper than anything else I can think of. Since I am more a global macro thinker and not a stock picker, I am retiring. All My Very Best wishes, Douglas."
After Doug announced his retiring, we automatically assumed his 2015 choice was a "goodbye" pick. However, when that stock soared again, he asked to return this year with his old favorite.
"At some point this stock is going from three to ten times earnings and, in the meantime, the net assets owned by the company are huge," says Doug. "These should be a cushion to the downside although I just saw a droll description of the difference between Russia and other global stock markets. With Russia, when you buy a bottom, you get another one free."
AK Transneft is very important in all of Russia's energy sectors and owns an astonishing amount of assets. Together with its subsidiaries, Transneft (which means oil transporter in Russian) engages in the transportation of oil and oil products through the system of trunk pipelines in Russia and internationally. It operates approximately 70,000 kilometers of pipelines and 500 pumping stations that transport crude oil in Russia, the Republic of Belarus, the Kazakhstan Republic and Ukraine. Putin and the CEO are pals.
With the recent leak of the Panama Papers exposing potential money laundering by many foreign leaders and entrepreneurs, official Russia complains that Putinophobia abroad has reached a point that it is taboo to say something good about Russia. Ditto its stocks. That's just where old bargain hunter Sir John Templeton found his best bargains.
"My best guess is that TransNeft triples in the next three years!" predicts Doug.
Russell Cleveland, chairman and founder of RENN Fund, Inc. (NYSE RCG) whose board has approved a plan of liquidation and dissolution is sticking with his venture-backed Bovie Medical, Inc. (NYSE: BVX - 2.20, recently 1.68) for the sixth time. When he chose Bovie for the first time in 2011 it rose 3.9% but in 2012 it went down 11.2%. In 2013 Russell's pick climbed 38.8% but fell 44% in 2014 and 24% in 2015.
"The company is actually making tremendous progress on their new surgery technology, so I have no idea why the stock is down where it is," complains Russ. "It's not because the fundamentals of the company haven't been turning up because they have. Things are moving ahead, the technology is tremendous, it's approved, it's selling, it's taking off and here we are at a ten year low."
Bovie has two major sources of value that are poised for explosive growth: its existing business and a robust pipeline containing breakthrough medical device technologies that address huge markets. Most of these new medical device technologies, such as J-Plasma, are either ready for market entry right now or are very close to being ready, such as BVX's Seal-N-Cut vessel sealing technology.
"Pretty soon Bovie is going to be worth a great deal more money in the market place," says Russ. "The market place doesn't understand or is not willing to acknowledge the potential of this company which is very large. I'm not talking about a $4 or $5 stock. I'm talking about a stock that could be $10 or $20."
Now that our guest panelists have had their shots Editor Bob Flaherty finally gets to the plate. Batter up! Our latest sponsored March 7, 2016 Flaherty Financial News Newsletter #55 update on my 2015 pick CEL-SCI Corporation (NYSEMKT:CVM- 1.02, recently 0.54) is down 47%. "CEL-SCI Corporation's Phase III Cancer Immunotherapy Comeback Continues" describes how arguably the most undervalued Phase III biotech is turning around "the mother of all credibility gaps."
For 2016 CEL-SCI remains my favorite stock. It is pioneering a revolution in current cancer care treatment. It is the only company to be administering Phase III pioneering immunotherapy treatment first before the healthy immune systems of newly diagnosed cancer patients have been debilitated. That's because CEL-SCI's three-week Multikine immunotherapy treatment is the only one which can fit into the four- week window before the current damaging standard of care- surgery, radiation and chemotherapy- devastates the patients' immune systems.
If successful, administering immunotherapy first makes common sense. A healthy immune system should be able to kill more cancer cells than an anemic debilitated one.
New patient enrollment is progressing nicely in CEL-SCI's pivotal world's largest head and neck cancer Phase III study. The company's $50 million arbitration suit plus $100 million in consequential damages charging its initial fired Clinical Research Organization with gross negligence for bungling its Multikine Phase III study launch is scheduled to start a final hearing (trial) this September.
Naturally the CRO denies all and is countersuing. A recent big plus is a judge ruled that CRO's own insurance company which was suing the CRO must be liable to pay even if there was bungling. That decision strengthens CEL-SCI's ability to collect or settle tremendously.
Full patient enrollment of 880 should be achieved later this summer. Phase III results will be available after the 300th enrolled patient dies in the two main comparison groups around late 2017. Then survival improvement can be measured. A 10% improvement in overall patient survival versus the current standard of cancer care is the target. Success would add billions to the stock valuation. Only two years to the finish line!
That's not long. Read our update at www.flahertyfinancialnews.com .
Thank you all for being readers and giving meaning to my working life. On a personal note I swim many days and do 200 pull ups from the water. For someone 82 my mind is functioning at a high level. With trust in God I will continue to face whatever challenges lie ahead. -RJF
