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CHARTS SHOW WHERE THE U.S. ECONOMY IS HEADED
Last Monday we brought you a mid-year update on how the U.S. economy is doing so far in 2013, showing continued growth but not the rapid liftoff that millions of unemployed Americans would like to see. But what are the prospects for the remainder of the year? Might the economy finally get on track? Here's what the evidence shows, in SEVEN MORE charts.
Steady as she goes for jobs
Some of the more reliable leading indicators of the labor market are pointing to the same sort of steady job gains in the months ahead that have been apparent throughout 2013, and, in truth, for most of the last couple of years. This chart shows the number of jobs the United States added (in thousands) in May, and on average for the last 3, 6, 12 months and so on. The fact that the bars are all pretty much the same height says a lot about how consistent, if unexceptional, this job market is.
 Given that track record, the safest prediction would be that the second half of 2013 will offer more of the same: Job gains in the 150,000 to 200,000 a month range, with the unemployment rate falling slowly. Indeed, some key leading indicators for the job market point in the same direction. For example, the number of people filing new claims for unemployment insurance benefits, a useful leading indicator of jobs, has been moving steadily downward, but in recent weeks has been very much locked in the same pattern of the last year or two.  Things look good for business investment Regardless of how much hiring that companies do, leading indicators for business investment are looking pretty good. The stock market is up, which should help executive confidence and implies there are good investment opportunities out there. And the data support the idea that business investment will keep rising in the second half of 2013. For example, take new orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft. This is new orders for the equipment businesses use, whether factory machinery or new desks and chairs for office workers. The orders data tend to presage future investment. And it has continued rising fairly steadily in recent months.
 Low, low, low inflation, as far as the eye can see What about prices? All signals are that they will be rising only modestly-indeed, quite likely below the 2 percent annual price gains that the Federal Reserve aims for. Here, for example, is the average annual inflation that investors are expecting over the next five years, according to bond market data. Not only do markets now price in inflation of only 1.86 percent a year over the next five years, but that expectation has been falling since late March.
But risks from higher rates!
That's not necessarily a blessing, however; low inflation means that "real," or inflation-adjusted, interest rates are higher. This chart shows the inflation-adjusted interest rate that the U.S. government must pay to borrow money for a decade (that is, it's the yield on a 10-year inflation-protected bond. While it is still low by historical standards, the spike on the right is a sharp run up that began at the start of May and accelerated after the Fed's meeting two weeks ago where officials discussed winding down their program of bond purchases
 That may dampen investment and spending that have been spurred by low interest rates. In particular, it will be a test of how resilient this housing recovery truly is. Housing starts were 29 percent higher in May than they were a year earlier, but those gains were driven in no small part by low mortgage rates that made homes more affordable. The National Association of Realtors index of housing affordability, for example, has hovered near all-time highs:
The most recent data in that chart is from April, before the interest rate swings. So expect the number to decline in May and June to reflect higher mortgage rates, which make homes less affordable.
But there is also some good news for consumers heading into the second half of the year. Prices for gasoline, stable over the last few years at between roughly $3.50 and $4 a gallon, have fallen in the last several weeks. That should free up more cash for everything else consumers might want or need.
 So the pieces are in place for more growth ahead in the second half of 2013, but with the drag from higher interest rates and the continuing impact of federal government spending cuts, there isn't much reason to expect any rapid acceleration in growth. (Contributor: By Neil Irwin for The Washington Post)
Let us first give thanks for economic data that indicate more jobs, an improving outlook, and a decrease in unemployment, for when a country prospers, Christians are able to give more to their churches, to mission agencies, and to reach out to the poor and needy with alms. But believers are aware from Scripture and church history that the more affluent any nation becomes, the less conscious its citizens are of their need for God's grace and provision in the spiritual realm. Pray that God will use economic changes and business uncertainty to capture the hearts of thousands of aimless people through revival and transforming visitations of His grace and mercy. Pray that we and our fellow Christian believers will seek first God's kingdom in our planning, spending, and investments.
"Blessed is the nation whose God is the Lord, the people he chose for his inheritance." (Psalm 33:12) "But godliness with contentment is great gain, for we brought nothing into the world, and we cannot take anything out of the world. But if we have food and clothing, with these we will be content." (1 Tim. 6:6-8)
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"Mothers, wives, sisters and daughters are dying at rates that we have never seen before," said Dr. Thomas Frieden, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which compiled the data.
The problem is one of the few health issues the CDC is working on that are clearly getting worse, he added.
For many decades, the overwhelming majority of U.S. overdose deaths were men killed by heroin or cocaine. But by 2010, 40 percent were women - most of them middle-aged women who took prescription painkillers.
Skyrocketing female overdose death rates are closely tied to a boom in the overall use of prescribed painkillers. The new report is the CDC's first to spotlight how the death trend has been more dramatic among women.
The CDC found that the number and rate of prescription painkiller overdose deaths among females increased about fivefold 1999 to 2010. Among men, such deaths rose about 3 1/2 times.
Overall, more men still die from overdoses of painkillers and other drugs; there were about 23,000 such deaths in 2010, compared with about 15,300 for women. Men tend to take more risks with drugs than women, and often are more prone to the kind of workplace injuries that lead to their being prescribed painkillers in the first place, experts say.
But the gap has been narrowing dramatically.
Studies suggest that women are more likely to have chronic pain, to be prescribed higher doses, and to use pain drugs longer than men. Some research suggests women may be more likely than men to "doctor shop" and get pain pills from several physicians, CDC officials said.
But many doctors may not recognize these facts about women, said John Eadie, director of a Brandeis University program that tracks prescription-drug monitoring efforts across the United States.
The report highlights the need for "a mindset change" by doctors, who have traditionally thought of drug abuse as a men's problem, he said. That means doctors should consider the possibility of addiction in female patients, think of alternative treatments for chronic pain, and consult state drug monitoring programs to find out if a patient has a worrisome history with painkillers.
The CDC report focuses on prescription opioids like Vicodin and OxyContin and their generic forms, methadone, and a powerful newer drug called Opana, or oxymorphone.
"These are dangerous medications and they should be reserved for situations like severe cancer pain," Frieden said. He added that there has not been a comparable increase in documented pain conditions in the U.S. public that would explain the boom in painkiller prescriptions in the last 10 or 15 years.
Some experts said the increase in prescriptions can be traced to pharmaceutical marketing campaigns.
CDC researchers reviewed death certificates, which are sometimes incomplete. Specific drugs were not identified in every death. In others, a combination of drugs was involved, such as painkillers taken with tranquilizers.
CDC officials think more than 70 percent of the overdose deaths were unintentional.
One striking finding: The greatest increases in drug overdose deaths were in women ages 45 through 54, and 55 through 64. The rate for each of those groups more than tripled between 1999 and 2010.
In 2010, overdose deaths in those two groups of middle-aged women added up to about 7,400 - or nearly half the female total, according to CDC statistics.
It's an age group in which more women are dealing with chronic pain and seeking help for it, some experts suggested.
Many of these women probably were introduced to painkillers through a doctor's prescriptions for real pain, such as persistent aches in the lower back or other parts of the body. Then some no doubt became addicted, said Dr. Andrew Kolodny, a psychiatrist who specializes in addiction at Maimonides Medical Center in New York City.
There aren't "two distinct populations of people being helped by opioid painkillers and addicts being harmed. There's overlap," said Kolodny, president of a 700-member organization Physicians for Responsible Opioid Prescribing. (Contributor: By Mike Strobbe, AP Medical Writer for The Associated Press, Tri Valley Central,
In the light of these shocking and tragic statistics, may all intercessors come before God with compassionate and repentant hearts on behalf of a nation whose men and women are so wracked with pain that they seek stronger and stronger medication to find relief. Let us mourn as we learn that up to 70 percent of overdose deaths may be unintentional. Pray for restraint in the push for stronger drugs and the relentless marketing by drug companies directly to the public to seek more answers to pain and stress through mixing prescriptions. Pray for a rise in the number of compassionate physicians who will treat the whole person rather than provide an endless chain of drug prescriptions. Pray with faith and in hope for a rapid spread of the gospel in a nihilistic society so as to lower the number of men and women whose lives of turmoil, stress, sadness, regret, and pain motivate them to feel the need for relief through increased medication.
"They heal the brokenness of the daughter of My people superficially, Saying, 'Peace, peace,' But there is no peace." (Jeremiah 8:11)
"You who bring [God's] good news to Zion, go up on a high mountain. You who bring good news to Jerusalem, lift up your voice with a shout, lift it up, do not be afraid; say to the towns of Judah, 'Here is your God!' See, the Sovereign Lord comes with power . . . See, His reward is with Him . . . He tends His flock like a shepherd: He gathers the lambs in His arms and carries them close to His heart; He gently leads those that have young." (Isaiah 40:9-11)
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OBAMACARE MANDATE DELAY - A CASE FOR OTHER FIXES
Without question, the employer mandate is one of the most detrimental requirements under Obamacare.
 For starters, it doesn't make much sense to encourage the growth of employer-sponsored insurance any more than we already do. Tax breaks dating back to Depression-era legislation ensure that the cost of employer-sponsored insurance (relatively expensive and overly comprehensive) is paid by workers through lower cash wages. Perhaps more importantly, employer-provided health insurance is responsible for a phenomenon known as "job lock," in which workers remain in a job out of a fear of losing health insurance.
The mandate's inefficiencies pale in comparison to the pernicious effects it will likely have on the labor market. Because low-income workers are more likely to be in jobs in which they don't have health insurance, the mandate would primarily hurt those at the bottom end of the income ladder. In essence, the requirement to provide health insurance increases the minimum wage that employers must pay their workers. As a result, those living at or below the poverty line may see their wages stagnate or drop. Their hours may be reduced, or they may simply lose their jobs.
Not only would the employer mandate affect those currently working, but it would harm those looking for a job. Just as the mandate raises the minimum wage employers pay to existing workers, it increases the cost of hiring additional workers. Those most vulnerable - teenagers (with an unemployment rate of 24.5 percent) and low-skilled workers - would be hurt the most, and would see their job prospects quickly diminish.
With the delay of the mandate, however, comes an opportunity to make important fixes to the law. Though the Treasury Department justified the delay as a "transition period" for businesses to better streamline the employer reporting requirements, it isn't crazy to think that there may be consensus building among Democrats (and in the administration) that the mandate may not be a great idea. Indeed, a bipartisan bill was introduced earlier this year that would have repealed the mandate.
This may be an opportunity for Republicans to leave a positive mark on the health care system, while saving face by repealing an important part of Obamacare. More important than this, though, the delay offers a chance to fix other parts of the law as well. Paring back the law's premium subsidies - designed to make newly minted insurance policies less expensive - to 300 percent of the federal poverty line, for instance, would benefit those who actually need help paying for premiums. Loosening or eliminating age-rating restrictions would make policies sold on the exchanges less expensive, enticing more young and healthy individuals to sign up.
These fixes plus a repeal of the employer mandate could even become part of a broader effort to reduce employer involvement in health insurance. Doing so would raise cash wages for employees, and employers, knowing that they're not on the hook for health insurance, would be more likely to hire new employees. With the administration now willing to at least delay parts of the law, a "delay and fix" approach may be more promising for Republicans than "repeal and replace." [By Yevgeniy Feyman, Manhattan Institute research associate, for The Washington Times.]
Give thanks to the Lord for this "reprieve," even though officially only one year. And pray that during the coming year, God will stir honest debate on the moral implications of the mandate and other religious freedom issues in the Affordable Care Act. Thank God, too, that this one-year postponement is capturing headlines and creating in-depth discussion among all political viewpoints. God is providentially affording an in-depth study time, which releases immediate pressure for employers with more than 50 personnel who would have been compelled by the original wording and intention to pay for devices and prescriptions promoting and facilitating abortion. Therefore, intercessors have time to unite and pray for righteous judgments to emerge that will protect employers' deeply held religious convictions from being overturned.
"Do not repay evil by doing more evil; instead, provide things honest in the sight of all men." (Romans 12:17)
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STATES' LAWS MAY THIN OUT ABORTION CLINICS
While much of the national abortion debate has focused on late-term abortions, pro-life forces are scoring major victories with new laws and regulations that in effect would force many - if not all - abortion clinics in a state to shut down.
 This battle over clinic regulations shifted into high gear in Texas on Monday as state lawmakers moved closer to passing a bill that advocates on both sides say would force all but a handful of the state's 67 abortion providers to close.
In a report released Monday, the Guttmacher Institute said that states' efforts to restrict abortion - including clinic regulations - were on pace to exceed those enacted in 2012. The institute also reported that there were nearly 3,000 U.S. abortion providers in the early 1990s and fewer than 1,800 providers since 2008.
Abortion rights supporters say regulations, many passed in states where Republicans dominate the legislatures, are not-too-subtle efforts to drive clinics out of business and deny women their rights to abortion, even while allowing abortion to remain nominally legal on the books. Techniques include raising treatment standards clinics must meet, blocking relationships with public hospitals and banning online technology that enables abortion doctors to treat patients in remote locations.
"Extremist politicians" made "a blatant attempt to shutter the Red River Women's Clinic, the sole abortion provider in North Dakota, with a law that would require the clinic's doctors to unnecessarily have admitting privileges at a local hospital," said the Center for Reproductive Rights, which is planning to block the law in state court this summer. Pro-choice activists call these measures targeted restriction of abortion providers (TRAP) laws.
Pro-life groups counter that in the wake of the May murder conviction of abortionist Kermit Gosnell - his inner-city Philadelphia "house of horrors" clinic operated for years under lax state rules and oversight - it is imperative that state officials step up their oversight of the abortion industry and leading practitioners such as Planned Parenthood.
"The taxpayer-funded abortion Goliath, Planned Parenthood, is trying to take over with its extreme agenda that is out of touch with Texas - and American - values. We are in Austin to tell them the eyes of Texas, and America, are upon you. You won't get away with subverting the democratic process to protect Gosnells in Texas - or anywhere," Kristan Hawkins, president of Students for Life of America, said Monday.
Every U.S. state still has at least one abortion provider, according to the Guttmacher Institute, but in 87 percent of U.S. counties, there are no doctors, hospitals or clinics that offer abortion services. Lone clinics in Mississippi and North Dakota are fighting to survive TRAP laws, pro-choice advocates say.
Ohio Gov. John Kasich, a Republican, signed a bill that included a provision blocking public hospitals from entering into written agreements to accept emergency patients from ambulatory surgical centers that perform abortions. The measure means that Ohio abortion clinics must enter into agreements with private hospitals to be licensed.
Also, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, a Republican, signed legislation requiring each abortion doctor to have admitting privileges at a nearby hospital. On Friday, the American Civil Liberties Union, the Planned Parenthood Federation of America and their Wisconsin partners filed a lawsuit against that law, saying the measure would in practice close two of the state's four abortion clinics.
Battle in Texas
In Texas, where a bitter clash over abortion-restricting legislation has garnered national attention in recent weeks, a state Senate panel heard testimony Monday about a bill that would set new restrictions on abortion clinics and outlaw abortions after 20 weeks into a pregnancy.
If enacted, the legislation would require abortions to be performed at ambulatory surgical centers. This likely would reduce the state's estimated 67 abortion facilities to a handful in Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston and San Antonio, said advocates on both sides of the abortion issue.
In addition, all Texas abortionists would have to have admitting privileges at hospitals within 30 miles, to ensure a patient's swift emergency care if needed. Opponents said that is tantamount to ending abortion because many Texas hospitals will not grant such privileges to abortion doctors.
Several witnesses told the state Senate Committee on Health and Human Services on Monday that if the restrictions pass, illegal abortionists will fill the vacuum.
Last month, thousands of advocates gathered at the state Capitol in Austin to support or protest the bill. Texas state Sen. Wendy Davis famously filibustered the bill for some 11 hours June 26 to derail the measure as a legislative special session expired.
Texas Gov. Rick Perry called lawmakers into a special session this week. He expects votes on these measures.
New state laws
In its Monday report, the Guttmacher Institute said that as of June, seven states require abortionists to have admitting privileges at local hospitals - a move that gives hospitals "veto power" over abortion clinics' abilities to provide services. In two of the seven states, however, the laws have not come into effect and another two are tied up in court challenges, institute analysts said.
Other new laws require abortion clinics to meet standards of ambulatory surgical centers. Opponents said this is unfair to abortion clinics because they do not offer a wide range of surgical procedures and in some cases offer only chemical abortions.
Lawmakers in states including Alabama, Indiana and Virginia said their actions were needed to ensure the safety of women seeking abortions.
By midyear, states have adopted 43 provisions of all kinds that limit abortion, according to the Guttmacher survey. This was "as many as were enacted in all of 2012," it noted. [By Cheryl Wetzstein for The Washington Times]
Give thanks that the abortion debate is getting renewed focus at the state level, giving potentially 50 new opportunities for detailed examination of a national atrocity. Pray for God to raise up wise governors and state legislators as closer scrutiny in the U.S. moves into the area of state-by-state regulation. Pray that governors such as Rick Perry of Texas and others who support the sanctity of life in the womb would be able to work with their state's legislators to curb this too-often covered up area of national violence against the lives of the unborn. As with Dr. Kermit Gosnell, the Philadelphia abortionist who operated without scruples in his pursuit of financial gain, pray that businesses and practitioners of such wanton killing would be exposed in their disregard for life and even for abortion laws, as liberal as they are. Pray that exposure of the 'love of money' as the 'root of all evil' will be honestly confronted by intercessors in their prayers for justice across the nation. Pray for forgiveness and for biblical revelation for President Obama, who once proclaimed "God bless Planned Parenthood." May he be given the mercy to understand from Scripture what God will bless and what He will never bless.
"For the love of money is a root of all kinds of evil. Some people, eager for money, have wandered from the faith and pierced themselves with many griefs." (1 Tim. 6:10)
"Their feet are swift to shed blood: Destruction and misery are in their ways: ..." (Romans 3:15-16)
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