The markets continue to confound -- a real but uneven housing recovery, mixed signals on whether fourth quarter growth was anemic or creating real economic momentum, encouraging and then disappointing jobs reports, all in the face of prospective tapering. Seems like we have been having this discussion for awhile...
Emerging from this polar vortex, perhaps now is a good time to take a look at the numbers. In this issue, AEG's Phil Van Winkle and Jon Morrison take a deep dive into corporate default rates to try to predict what comes next. While much of the data suggests default rates should be moving up, excess liquidity and more lenient deal terms suggest we shouldn't be expecting any dramatic changes soon.
The good news for underperforming companies is that management and owners have a fair amount of runway to get things on a better track. Will those companies take advantage of the time and address the underlying causes, or ride the wave until conditions are not so favorable? Phil and Jon also take a brief look at two AEG clients who leveraged our expertise to significantly improve their numbers.