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Good morning!
  
Join the long list of investors who are thrilled that the US stock market just experienced its best performance week in 2015, but aren't exactly sure why. The S&P 500 gained +3.3% (total return) last week, moving the nation's most widely followed equity index to just short of breakeven for the year (down 0.5% YTD). If this upward movement is going to continue, it will have to be driven by strong 3rd quarter earnings reports that will be released in the coming weeks (source: BTN Research).
  
First-time claims by Americans for unemployment benefits for the week ending 10/03/15 were 263,000, a weekly number that has been lower only 3 times in the last 41 years. The first-time claims number, which peaked at 665,000 in March 2009, has steadily dropped over the last 6+ years in much the same fashion that the nation's unemployment rate has been cut in half (from 10.0% to 5.1%) over approximately the same time period (source: Department of Labor).      
  
The Treasury Department has drawn a line in the sand with regard to our debt ceiling limit. It believes the government "is likely to exhaust its extraordinary measures on or about 11/05/15" to keep our outstanding debt below its current $18.152 trillion limit. The letter warns that "without sufficient cash, it would be impossible for the USA to meet all of its obligations for the 1st time in our history." Our country's national debt increased +86% over George W. Bush's 2 terms in office and has climbed another +71% during Barack Obama's 6 � years in office (source: Treasury Department).



Notable Numbers for the Week:
 
  • GETTING THAT JOB - 57% of job recruiters believe that an applicant's grade point average (GPA) is "unimportant" when evaluating a candidate, but 87% of recruiters judge prior job experience as a key factor in hiring (source: Jobvite Recruiter Nation Survey). 
     
  • PONZI UPDATE - Less than 2 weeks before Bernie Madoff was arrested on 12/11/08, his investors were told they held assets worth $65 billion on $17.5 billion of money actually invested. The court-appointed trustee to the case has since recovered $11 billion of the $17.5 billion, returning $7.25 billion to victims in the Ponzi scheme. An additional disbursement of $800 million has been made to victims as a result of SIPC insurance (source: CNN).
  • NEXT THREE MEETINGS - As of last Friday 10/09/15, the bond market is priced to reflect a 8% chance of a Fed rate hike at its 10/28/15 meeting, a 37% chance of a Fed rate hike at its 12/16/15 meeting, and a 47% chance of a Fed rate hike at its 1/27/16 meeting (source: CME Group).
  • WORK FOR THE GOVERNMENT - The number of federal government workers has decreased by 402,000 over the last 25 years (i.e., 9/30/90 to 9/30/15), but the number of state and local workers (excluding teachers) has increased by +2.1 million over the same period (source: Department of Labor).


 

     In observance of Columbus Day, banks will be closed, therefore no money movement can be initiated today.  Regular business operations for banks will resume for tomorrow.

   
Sincerely,

Lew Shore, Jon Morgan, and Marya Young 

Shore Morgan Young Wealth Strategies
300 West Wilson Bridge Road, Suite 310
Worthington, Ohio 43085
614-888-2117 office
800-288-2117 toll free
614-888-2023 fax
  
  
  

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Advisory services offered through Capital Analysts. or Lincoln Investment, Registered Investment Advisors. Securities offered through Lincoln Investment, Broker Dealer, Member FINRA/SIPC. (www.lincolninvestment.com). Shore Morgan Young Wealth Strategies and the above firms are independent, non-affiliated entities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. An index is unmanaged and no one can invest directly in an index. This e-mail is a market commentary and is being provided for educational purposes only. It is not a solicitation or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or act on any strategy. This e-mail may include forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Capital Analysts, Lincoln Investment. and your advisor do not provide tax or legal advice services. This communication has been written by Michael A. Higley, and provided by your advisor as an educational service. Any comments, opinions or facts listed are those of Mr. Higley. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable, however their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed.  

S&P 500 Index is an index of 500 of the largest exchange-traded stocks in the US from a broad range of industries whose collective performance mirrors the overall stock market. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
In general, the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities). Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk, liquidity risk, call risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Lower-quality fixed income securities involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed-income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.
  
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of output from U.S factories and related consumption in the United States.  It does not include products made by U.S. companies in foreign markets.