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Good afternoon, 
  

Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan made headlines on 12/05/96 when he delivered his famous "irrational exuberance" speech. Greenspan's comments, directed at what he believed to be unrealistic stock values, proved to be premature as the S&P 500's bull market run (which was 74 months old at the time) continued on for nearly 40 months while gaining an additional +105%. Current Fed Chair Janet Yellen made her own headlines this last Wednesday (5/06/15) when she said that "equity market valuations at this point generally are quite high" and that "there are potential dangers there." Ironically, Yellen's comments came just 3 days before the S&P 500's current bull market reached 74 months in length (source: BTN Research).      

 

US oil producers have idled 51% of their rigs since the beginning of 2015 after seeing oil prices plunge 42% during the 4th quarter 2014, a production slowdown that has impacted both oil and gas prices. The price of oil closed at $60.78 a barrel last Tuesday (5/05/15), its highest close of 2015 and its first time above $60 a barrel since mid-December 2014. The average price of gasoline nationwide has also moved up, increasing by 40.1 cents per gallon YTD through Sunday 5/10/15, a gain of just over 2 cents per week this year (source: AAA, Baker Hughes).
 

US employers have hired a net increase in workers (nonfarm) for 55 consecutive months through 4/30/15, i.e., October 2010 through April 2015. An average of +201,000 new jobs has been created each month during the 55-month period (source: DOL).      

 

Notable Numbers for the Week:

  1. THEY NEED TO SPEND MORE - The personal savings rate in the USA was +5.3% as of 3/31/15. The savings rate of the average Chinese household is +30% (source: Department of Commerce).   

  2.  NOTHING FOR ME - 1 out of 7 Americans workers (14%) surveyed in early April 2015 (a total of 1,015 people participated) do not believe Social Security will ever pay them a penny of retirement benefits (source: Gallup).   

  3. RENTAL BUSINESS IS BOOMING - The number of households in the USA have increased by +1.48 million (to 116.2 million) in the last 12 months through 3/31/15, a combination of +1.87 million new renters and a reduction of 390,000 homeowners (source: Census Bureau).

  4. MAKING THE TAX CODE SIMPLE - House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI) is a supporter of a "flat tax." A "flat tax" rate of 13.1% on the nation's $9.0 trillion of adjusted gross income from tax year 2012 (for individuals, not corporations) would have produced the same amount of federal income tax as was actually collected under our current system (source: Internal Revenue Service).     

Sincerely,


Lew Shore, Jon Morgan, and Marya Young 


Shore Morgan Young Wealth Strategies

300 West Wilson Bridge Road, Suite 310

Worthington, Ohio 43085

614-888-2117 office

800-288-2117 toll free

614-888-2023 fax

[email protected] 


 

 

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Advisory services offered through Capital Analysts, Inc. or Lincoln Investment Planning, Inc., Registered Investment Advisors. Securities offered through Lincoln Investment Planning, Inc., Broker Dealer, Member FINRA/SIPC. (www.lincolninvestment.com). Shore Morgan Young Wealth Strategies and the above firms are independent, non-affiliated entities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. An index is unmanaged and no one can invest directly in an index. This e-mail is a market commentary and is being provided for educational purposes only. It is not a solicitation or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or act on any strategy. This e-mail may include forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Capital Analysts, Inc., Lincoln Investment Planning, Inc. and your advisor do not provide tax or legal advice services. This communication has been written by Michael A. Higley, and provided by your advisor as an educational service. Any comments, opinions or facts listed are those of Mr. Higley. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable, however their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed.  


 

S&P 500 Index is an index of 500 of the largest exchange-traded stocks in the US from a broad range of industries whose collective performance mirrors the overall stock market.