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Again, there will be a lot to say on this in the days ahead, but two thoughts are worth considering now.
New Zealand's Ambassador to the United States, Ambassador Tim Groser, gave an excellent presentation at the GBD members' lunch on September 15. We have not yet quoted from that. We will do so at length next week. The haunting thought we will share here is something he said about a TPP scenario, specifically the scenario in which Congress fails to approve the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement. "If this agreement [TPP] doesn't go through," Ambassador Groser said, "do not expect your closest friends, allies, and partners to sit there in a hole. We will not. We will take whatever - with great heaviness of heart and regret - we will take whatever options we have."
In one sense, of course, that comment isn't strictly relevant here, because the possibility of a Canada-China FTA is not directly linked to the fate of TPP. And yet, in a broader sense, it is as relevant as it could possibly be.
Our other comment relates to something long ago. In the spring of 1986, the Senate Finance Committee held a hearing to consider whether to allow the proposed negotiations for a free-trade agreement between Canada and the United States to go forward. What we remember from that hearing is that, while the Committee did allow the negotiations to go forward, it was a very close call.
One of the reasons it was so close was the concern about Canadian competition from the U.S. northern tier states - from Maine to Washington. Fish, lobster, lumber, wheat, beef - you name it - those states compete with Canadian producers across a wide range of products. The memory seems relevant now, because that competition doesn't just happen in North America. It happens around the world. It happens in China. And one clear result of a Canada-China FTA would be to give Canadian producers an edge in the Chinese market over their U.S. counterparts. But, of course, that's all a long way off.
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