Andrew Moravcsik is a professor of politics at Princeton. Today's quote is essentially the lead from an article of his that appeared in the Financial Times last Friday. As this opening declaration makes clear and as Professor Moravcsik explains in the balance of the piece, the upcoming referendum on the UK's membership in the EU isn't some grand decisive moment in the life the UK; rather, he writes, it is the kabuki theater of modern politics on a grand scale.

There are certain elements of Professor Moravcsik's argument which are (to our reading) unassailably true. He asserts, for example, that "Politicians do not call EU referendums because they are genuinely dissatisfied with Europe. They do so to extricate themselves from domestic political jams." Almost certainly that was Prime Minister Cameron's motivation in 2013 when he promised this one. 

The professor believes that a vote to leave will really be nothing more than a vote to have another negotiation with Brussels on the terms of staying in, that those negotiations will be successful but won't change much, and that the UK-EU relationship will soon go back to normal, i.e., to the status quo ante referendum. In support of that argument he quotes one of the leave camps more famous supporters, the Mayor of London, Boris Johnson. After making the case that a vote to leave is simply a vote for a better deal within Europe, Professor Moravcsik clinches the case with Mr. Johnson's comment, "If you vote to leave, all your options are good."

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Maybe Professor Moravcsik is right. But maybe he is not. The actual vote will matter, both the participation rate (how many people vote) and the margin of victory for whichever camp is able to claim it. If the "remain" camp wins, of course, this will all be moot. But if there is a strong "leave" vote, then the debate will have to broaden, with more weight given to those whose arguments are not limited to the economic consequences of the UK outside the EU but emphasize as well things like national identity and democratic governance, which are also issues in this campaign.

Tomorrow afternoon, April 13, the Global Business Dialogue will host a discussion on the upcoming referendum, primarily for GBD members. If you are a member but have not received an invitation, please send a note to comments@gbdinc.org, and we will get back to you right away.

The great Brexit kabuki is a link to the Financial Times op-ed by Andrew Moravcsik, which was the source for today's quote.