THE TTALK QUOTES 

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No. 11 of  2016

THURSDAY, MARCH 3, 2016

Filed from Portland, Oregon

Click here for Tuesday's Brexit quote from Peter Allgeier.
ALL THE TEA IN CHINA - AND STEEL, AND ALUMINUM

"[With China's massive overcapacity overhanging the market,] six aluminum smelters [in the U.S.] have closed or been announced as closing in the last six months, leaving the US with a capacity back at 1950 levels."

Terence  P. Stewart
February 24, 2016
CONTEXT
China's massive overcapacity in metals - notably steel and aluminum - is one of those things everyone is talking about.  Yes, that includes the candidates running for president, but we'll deal with their views on another day.

The Wall Street Journal posted an article on its website earlier today with the title "China Begins to Tackle Its 'Zombie' Factory Problem," which highlights China's efforts to deal with the issue.  Tomorrow's Federal Register is expected to include a notice of a hearing on the Global Steel Industry Situation and Impact on U.S. Steel Industry and Market.  That hearing will be held at the International Trade Commission on April 12.  The ITC, however, is not the convener.  Rather, the April 12 hearing will be a joint project of the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and the U.S. Commerce Department.

Today's quote is from a hearing held last week by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.  One of the panels was devoted to China's overcapacity and global markets, and Terence Stewart, managing partner at Stewart and Stewart, was one of the witnesses on that panel.   He talked about the problems that China's overcapacity is causing for both the steel and aluminum industries in the U.S. - and indeed the world. 

For this entry we shall stick mainly to the aluminum issue.  Here is more from the paragraph with today's quote:

"For example, in the aluminum sector, western aluminum producers have been closing aluminum smelters in many parts of the world because of the depressed prices caused in large part by China's massive excess capacity and inventories of product overhanging the market.  In the US, six aluminum smelters have closed or been announced as closed in the last six months, leaving the US with a capacity back at 1950s levels.

"Yet China has no natural advantage in the production of aluminum and environmentally its production is not desirable being largely coal-powered for energy.  Nonetheless, China has expanded its aluminum capacity from 1.75 million tons in 1966 to an estimate 36 million tons in 2015.  And in 2014 alone, Chinese excess capacity was estimated at more than 10 million tons.  China now accounts for more than half of the world's smelting capacity (52.3% vs.7.9% in 1996). ..."

COMMENT
To say the least, this is not even the tip of the iceberg (ingot).  A lot more of this tale needs to be told before one offers more than the most obvious comments.  One related issue, for example, has to do with China's goal and expectation of having its goods treated by the U.S. and others as products of a market economy.  Today they are often regarded as coming from a non-market economy for the purpose, for example, of calculating anti-dumping duties. 

We expect to turn to that issue next week.  However, if you want a head-start, it would be hard to find a better primer on the issue than the one provided by Gary Hufbauer of the Peterson Institute in his testimony at the same February 24 China Commission hearing.

As for the legal context and recommendations in Mr. Stewart's remarks, we were struck by the contrast between a fundamental observation he made and his final recommendation.

The observations was that:

"[T]here are no multilaterally agreed rules to address situations of massive global excess capacity in a rapid or comprehensive manner."

His last recommendation was:

"Finally and perhaps most immediately, the Obama Administration could self-initiate trade cases under Title VII of the Tariff Act of 1930 (antidumping and countervailing duty laws) on a broad basis and/or request the initiation of safeguard actions ..."

All of that, at least for this reader, boils down to saying, Okay, the WTO doesn't really address the problem, but it does offer some remedies, and for now those are the ones we have to use.

To return just briefly to today's Wall Street Journal article, we don't doubt, as the article makes clear, that China's overcapacity in aluminum and steel are a problem for China and that the Chinese leadership is trying to address it.  Arguably, however, it is an even greater problem for the U.S. and others.

Adapting the Spanish adage of hospitality to the current situation engenders the thought: Su problema es mi problema.  Alas.
SOURCES & LINKS
At the Commission take you to the testimony presented by Terence P. Stewart at the February 24, 2016, hearing held by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.  This was the source for today's featured quote.

Tackling the Zombie Factories is a link to The Wall Street Journal article mentioned in the context section above.

Hufbauer on the MES (Market Economy Status) issue takes you to Dr. Hufbauer's February 24 testimony before the China Review Commission.

 

 

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