Will Congress approve the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement this year? That is an open question. While the debate over TPP may seem to have been going on for years, in an important sense it is only just getting started. A lot will depend upon how that discussion evolves over the next few months. In his speech today at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, the U.S. Trade Representative, Ambassador
Michael Froman, said,
"Day after day, the American people are stepping up and speaking out in favor of leading on trade," in short in favor of TPP. He may be right about that, and over the next several months that could create a very different climate and a more positive outlook for TPP in Congress.
At the moment, however, the outlook is not good. The current situation in the Senate was summed up succinctly by Senator
John Thune (R-SD) in his interview with
Bret Baier of Fox News, immediately following the State of the Union. Here is a portion of it:
BRETT BAIR: It was interesting to see that only his cabinet stood up and applauded that [TPP]. Is TPP dead for this congress in this election year?
SENATOR THUNE: I think it's on life support. Frankly there are a lot of good things. There are many of us who want to see TPP get done. It's good for agricultural markets, certainly the area of the country that I represent. And there are a lot of members in our party, at least, who want to see this get done but have concerns about the agreement that was negotiated and would like to see changes made to it. So, if I was handicapping it, I'd say it's less than 50-50 [that] it gets done this year. But, I hope it gets done eventually. It's something that we need to do.
We can't help but think that the odds for Congressional approval of TPP might have been improved, at least a little, if the President had offered a small olive branch to, offered to cooperate with, those in Congress who would clearly prefer to vote for TPP but have strong reservations about particular elements of the agreement.
After all, the announcement that a trade deal has been done has never really been - and probably never will be - the end of the negotiations. And the final phase, namely the negotiations between Congress and the Administration over implementing legislation, is always tough.
