THE TTALK QUOTES 

On Global Trade & Investment

 

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No. 81 of  2015

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 11, 2015

Filed from Portland, Oregon

Click here for yesterday's COOL quote from the WTO Decision by the Arbitrator.
TRADE FACILITATION AND THE FLOW OF GOODS

"This data may be about a year old, but we have shown that:
  • 113 countries hold more than 25 percent of shipments.
  • More than 40 countries hold more than 50 percent of shipments.
  • And 12 countries held over 75 percent of shipments."

Leslie Griffin
December 3, 2015
CONTEXT
Leslie Griffin is the Senior Vice President for International Public Policy at UPS, United Parcel Service, Inc.  Last Thursday morning she was one of the panelists at the GBD colloquium on the upcoming WTO ministerial meeting in Nairobi, Kenya.  Her topic was the Trade Facilitation Agreement, TFA, and it would be hard to imagine a better introduction to that landmark agreement than the one encapsulated in Ms. Griffin's remarks.  They were the source for today's quote, which highlights some of the challenges that the TFA is meant to overcome.  Her remarks also included several observations on specific elements of the TFA and their importance to companies, countries, and the global economy.   We shall turn to some of those in a moment.
 
First, though, two historical notes and one prospective one:

December 7, 2013 - The Trade Facilitation Agreement was agreed to by the WTO members at the WTO's 9th Ministerial Conference in Bali, Indonesia.

November 27, 2014 - In Geneva, the WTO members adopted the Protocol of Amendment for the Trade Facilitation Agreement, setting the organization and its members on a path toward implementing the agreement.

December 15-18, 2015 - WTO members will meet in Nairobi, Kenya, for the WTO's 10th Ministerial Conference, and Trade Facilitation will be a part of their discussions.

Earlier today, for example, the WTO posted on its website a letter to the WTO Director-General Roberto Azevêdo from President Uhuru Kenyatta, expressing the hope that all WTO members will "show [the] political will and necessary flexibilities" to make the conference a success.  In the same letter, President Kenyatta talked about Trade Facilitation, saying:

"While we are still in the process of negotiating the outcomes for MC10, I commend your efforts to ensure that members do not forget those which we have already agreed on.  The ratification, entry into force, and implementation of the Trade Facilitation Agreement will help to cut global trade costs as well as expediting the technical assistance that the agreement provides for, including through the Trade Facilitation Agreement Facility."  

As we noted on Tuesday, the world is still a long way from seeing the Trade Facilitation Agreement enter into force.  Last week we were told that 53 countries had ratified the deal.  Now that number is up to 57.  Notice of the most recent ratification, the one from Kenya, was received at the WTO yesterday, December 10.  The hard fact remains, however, that implementation requires ratification by at least 108 countries, that is, two-thirds of the membership (now 162).

Putting these facts in perspective, Ms. Griffin conceded that "Nairobi won't be a celebration of entry into force.   But," she said, "at the ministerial we'll have a chance to ... take stock of progress and urge those countries that have not yet ratified to do so quickly."

COMMENT & MORE CONTEXT
"There's many a slip twixt cup and lip," goes the English proverb.  "I want my neighbor's cow to die" is the punch line of a grim Russian joke about a peasant who chooses the schadenfreude of a neighbor's misfortune over improvements in his own situation.  Sadly, it is a dynamic not altogether absent from the WTO.  The lesson is, when something is really important, it needs to be done as quickly as possible. And Trade Facilitation is really important. Ms. Griffin explained why.  We don't have room for her full presentation but here are some of its elements.

Trade is the lifeblood of the modern e-commerce world and the today's supply chain driven global economy.  "Almost 60 percent of trade is in intermediate goods - the inputs and components that may cross borders dozens of times in the making of a product."

"The TFA is expected to increase global merchandize trade by up to $1 trillion annually.  That was the estimate of the WTO's World Trade Report 2015."
"More than half the benefits would go to developing countries."

It's a big agreement with some 40 provisions.  Ms. Griffin talked about some of them, including.

Transparency.  Members have agreed to post their customs regulations and procedures on-line and to allow stakeholders to comment on new regulations.

Quick Clearance of Goods.  This includes, among other things, provisions for pre-arrival processing for shipments and separating the clearance of goods from the payment of duties, so that the goods can be on their way quickly. 

De Minimis Shipments.  The WTO members have not agreed to a set de minimis level - a value below which duties will not be assessed.  They have, however, agreed that each of them will set such a level. 

Global Alliance.  Finally, one of the things that will be formally launched at Nairobi is this new public-private partnership to ensure the success of the Trade Facilitation Agreement, namely the Global Alliance for Trade Facilitation.  Four countries - the U.S., the UK, Canada, and Germany - have already agreed to contribute some $70 million over five years to ensure the success of the TFA by monitoring its implementation and providing assistance,  both technical and financial.  UPS, Ms. Griffin said, will chair the Alliance's implementation committee, and the Center for International Private Enterprise, which is housed within the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, will serve as the secretariat of the alliance.*

***

Two final thoughts.  First, with 2014 revenue of over $58 billion, UPS is not only the world's largest package delivery company.  As a global supply chain and freight forwarding company, it is critical to global production.  In short, it is a company central to the concept of Trade Facilitation, and we were lucky to have had Leslie Griffin with us last week.

Second, the more one learns about the Trade Facilitation Agreement, the more impressed one is with what a major achievement it was - or will be once implemented.  In that sense, we keep returning to something Sarah Thorn of Walmart said to us a year or so ago: "Trade facilitation is trade."  Whatever else is accomplished in Nairobi next week, maintaining the momentum on Trade Facilitation is critical.
SOURCES, LINKS, & NOTES
A Trade Facilitation Presentation is our way of referring to GBD's unpublished recording and transcript of Ms. Griffin's remarks at the GBD colloquium on December 3.  The latter was the source for today's quote. 

The Letter from President Kenyatta, referred to above, is addressed to Director-General Azevedo but is in fact a plea to all WTO members to work towards a successful ministerial conference next week in Nairobi, MC10.
Link.

Kenya's Ratification Received is the notice of this development on the WTO website.
Link.

Trade Facilitation Primer is a useful overview of the TFA on the WTO website.
Link.

*Editor's Note.  Ms. Griffin did not specifically refer to the Center for International Private Enterprise as the "secretariat" for the Global Alliance for Trade Facilitation.  The term is our characterization, and, if it is inaccurate, the mistake is ours.  

 

 

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