|
|
THE TTALK QUOTES
On Global Trade & Investment
Published Three Times a Week By
The Global Business Dialogue, Inc.
Washington, DC Tel: 202-463-5074
Email: Comments@gbdinc.org
No. 74 of 2015
|
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 2015
Filed from Portland, Oregon
Click here for the October 23 quote on U.S. Dairy and
the threat of trade retaliation from Canada and Mexico.
|
|
ON SUSHI, SCIENCE, AND TPP
"I don't know what my mother would make of it all now. ... But I don't think she'd like sushi. She wasn't very adventurous when it came to food."
Dr. John Rendle Baker
May 10, 2003 (Publication Date)
|
CONTEXT
|
Dr. Baker's mother was Dr. Kathleen Mary Drew-Baker (1901 - 1957) a British scientist, a phycologist who studied seaweed. Her discoveries saved the Japanese nori industry. Nori is that special seaweed you know as the wrapping for your sushi. One teller of this tale set the stage this way:
"Nori had been harvested along Japan's coastline for hundreds of years. But from the late 1940s a series of crop failures devastated supply. Farmers and scientists were at a loss as to what was causing the issue. As harvests were so unpredictable, nori became known as 'gamblers' grass.'"
What Dr. Drew-Baker learned is that the seaweed spores need to nest in old seashells. Armed with that knowledge Japan began successfully cultivating nori in new ways. And for decades now, Kathleen Drew-Baker has been known in Japan as "the Mother of the Sea" and her work celebrated with a festival on April 14. In Uto, a city in the southern island of Kyushu, there is a monument to her at a local shrine. Dr. Drew-Baker died without knowing how important she would become to Japan, that her work would in effect save an industry. But her children know. Today's quote is from an interview her scientist son gave to the Daily Post in Liverpool, after returning from a visit to Osaka and participating in the festival there. As the Daily Post reporter explained, "He said he was mobbed as a celebrity when he traveled to Japan with his wife Rosa ... for an annual ceremony ... ."
***
Let's fast forward now to more recent events. If there is a modern-day Forest Gump, someone who is on the scene for all of the major events of the day, he was in Seoul this past Sunday and Monday, first on Sunday for the China-Korea-Japan trilateral summit and then on Monday for the bilateral meeting between President Park Geun-hye of South Korea and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan. Both events were significant, but today our focus is on the bilateral, the meeting between President Park and Prime Minister Abe. The major headline from that was the announcement of new cooperation between South Korea and Japan on the painful World War II issue of "comfort women." We use the euphemism not to mask the evil, but it is not today's subject.
Our topic here is another issue President Park discussed with Prime Minister Abe, namely Korea's interest in joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement. President Park raised the issue with President Obama last month in Washington and she raised it with Prime Minister Abe yesterday in Seoul. Reportedly, Mr. Abe was quite open to the request. Indeed one gets the impression that Japan is already planning for its negotiation with Korea over that country's accessions to TPP.
Consider, for example, this observation from a Nikkei report on this issue:
"Japan ended its tariff on seafood under TPP, but it maintained tariffs on seaweed products, including nori. Japan is believed to have kept nori tariffs as a card for future negotiations with South Korea, a major nori producer, when the country eventually decides to join the trade pact."
|
COMMENT
|
That analysis maybe wholly correct, but it is worth noting that nori is in fact a sensitive product for Japan, and indeed Japan has already had to deal with one WTO complaint -- filed by Korea -- against their restrictions on nori imports. No, we do not think increasing nori exports to Japan is the driver behind Korea's interest in TPP. It is simply a fascinating illustration of the complex, interdependent world we share as well a chance to highlight a TPP product we haven't talked about before.
Certainly, though, Korea has bigger fish to fry. As Suh Jin-Kyu, a Korean economist put it, "[TPP] is critical for Korea which exports more parts for assembly than finished products. Not joining TPP will hurts its global value chain in the long run." (From The Financial Times, October 6, 2015)
With respect to the more immediate if not larger issues of TPP ratification, this all seems very premature. The world does not yet have a final, official text for the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement. When it does, the debate over TPP that is already in progress will move into higher gear, and no one knows just how it will play out. The big decisions are now in the hands of the ratifying bodies, and in the United States that means Congress. Will they pass the existing agreement under fast track rules? Will they seek to have one or more provisions renegotiated as they did with earlier deals, including the free-trade agreement with Korea? And when will they vote?
Looking at the other 11 TPP countries, one might ask some of the same questions, especially, when will they ratify? As we noted in an earlier entry, the U.S. accounts for nearly 62 percent of the GDP of the TPP region, and under the terms of the agreement, TPP cannot enter into force without the participation of the United States. So it seems very unlikely that any country will put its full stamp of approval on TPP before America does. And that is going to take some time.
No one can tell you just how much time. There are too many variables. It is all guess work. But some guesses are better than others, and the best starting point for good educated guesses is the series of timelines for TPP consideration mandated by the 2015 Trade Act. Andrew Shoyer and his colleagues at Sidley and Austin have taken a look at those requirements and what they mean for TPP. On the timeline is a link to their note on this topic.
In these pages we are not making any guesses for the short term, that is, not for the next 12 months. Ultimately, however, we believe a Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement will be ratified by all of the current TPP countries, and that in time it will include more than 12. For today, we will leave it at that. And have some sushi.
|
SOURCES & LINKS
|
Seoul’s Bid is a link to Nikkei Asian Review article on the bilateral meeting between President Park and Prime Minister Abe.
Seaweed Saviour is the Warp and Weft article that was the source for the description of Japan's post-War drop in nori harvests.
62 Percent is a link to the TTALK Quote for October 13, which includes a table with the GDP for each of the TPP countries.
Nori at the WTO is a link to the page on the WTO website with details on this dispute.
South Korea Frets takes you to the Financial Times article with the quote from Suh Jin-Kyu.
TPP Timing is a link to the note on the legal deadlines associates with TPP prepared by Andrew Shoyer and others at Sidley and Austin.
|
|
|
TO GET THE TTALK DAILY QUOTE IN YOUR INBOX
Or Other GBD Notices, Click below.
|

© 2015 The Global Business Dialogue, Inc.
1140 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 950
Washington, DC 20036
Tel: (202) 463-5074
R. K. Morris, Editor
www.gbdinc.org
|
|
|
|
|