THE TTALK QUOTES 

On Global Trade & Investment

 

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No. 72 of 2015

MONDAY, OCTOBER 19, 2015

Filed from Portland, Oregon

Click here for last Friday's quote from Senator Orrin Hatch.
TPP AND CANADA - TODAY AND TOMORROW

"TPP actually places us in an enviable position vis-à-vis many of our other trading partners around the world.  ... We will be the only developed country in the world to have free-trade access to all of Europe, to the North American marketplace, and the Asia Pacific Region."
 
Ed Fast
October 8, 2015
CONTEXT
Canada's trade minister, Ed Fast, and the country's minister for industry, James Moore, were both in Vancouver on the morning of October 8, participating in an event hosted by the Vancouver Board of Trade.  In the brief clip from the event we found on-line, the two ministers talked about trade. Mr. Moore, who spoke first, said, "The future is not isolationism." 

Mr. Fast, who followed him, expanded with specific reference to the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, TPP, including today's quote.

COMMENT
In his remarks, James Moore tried to provide a context for Hillary Clinton's announced opposition to TPP, explaining it entirely in terms of the challenges she faces as the front runner in the race to become the Democratic Party's nominee for president.  His doing so was understandable.  Mrs. Clinton's TPP announcement has complicated Canada's discussion of the agreement.  On that issue, however, Ed Fast took a pass.
 
"I'm not going to get into the politics of the United States," he said.  "I'm focused on a different election right now, which is ten days away." 

And on October 8, it was.  Now it is upon us.  By this time tomorrow, things will be different, though on the trade front probably not that different.
At the Vancouver Board of Trade Mr. Fast focused his criticism on the New Democratic Party's candidate, Thomas Mulcair.  It made sense. Mr. Mulcair is the only major candidate who has labeled TPP a bad deal.   He is not, however, likely to be the winner.   As of yesterday, the Liberal candidate, Justin Trudeau, was ahead in the polls, but not so far ahead as to rule out a now long-shot fourth electoral win for Prime Minister Harper.  We are not savvy enough to run through all the permutations of possible coalition governments, in the event that none of the three leading parties - the Conservatives, the Liberals, or the New Democrats - is able to garner the 170 seats that any party  would need to command a majority.

For us, the main point is a somewhat different one.  Yes, TPP has been contentious in Canada, especially as particular issues - autos and dairy, for example - hit the headlines.  But trade has not been the dominant issue of this Canadian election, and it is not likely to be a causality of it.  There is a caveat to that however.  Canadians do look south.  If TPP seems to be in real trouble in the United States, the politics of winning approval for it in Canada will, at the very least, be more difficult.

Our guess, however, is that the view expressed by Ed Fast in today's featured quote is likely to be echoed by the trade minister of the next Canadian government, whoever he or she might be.  That same minister might also consider saying anew something else Mr. Fast said on October 8, namely:

"We [Canadians] need to engage in the world.  We are the very best at what we do.  We should not be afraid of competition.  We should not be afraid of engaging with the world."

SOURCES & LINKS
At The Board of Trade is a link to the clip from Mr. Fast's October 8 presentation, which was the source for today's quote.
 
No Majority takes you to a Globe and Mail story that discusses this possibility. 

 

 

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