China only proposed the bank in 2013. Given the very positive, world-wide response it has already received, we doubt it will be very long before those operational criteria are met.
We also don't expect it will be too long before Canada decides to join. Minister Oliver reportedly told his audience on July 8, for example, that the value of future AIIB projects could run into trillions of dollars. Thus, as Alastair Sharp of Reuters put it, "The share won by Canadian companies need not be large to be meaningful."
***
The AIIB story is very much an evolving one. We shall all have lots of time to think about what it means from the obvious perspectives, as well as from ones which may not be obvious yet. The obvious ones are: - Development;
- The Global Competitiveness of those who supply the products of development, from cement to cell towers; and
- The role that institutions like AIIB play in the geopolitical jockeying for power and prestige.
***
With apologies for what may seem like non sequiturs, these developments surrounding the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank brought to mind two others. (They may be non sequiturs, but there are clearly fewer than six degrees of separation.) The first is the lapse of the charter of the Export-Import Bank of the United States. If you visit the ExIm website today, this is what you will see:
"Due to a lapse in EXIM Bank's authority, as of July 1, 2015, the Bank is unable to process applications or engage in new business or other prohibited activities. For more information, please click here."
The second item we would like to mention is this chart:
From the PewResearchCenter It is one of 29 slides in a PewResearchCenter presentation on "Global Views on China and the Balance of Power." Richard Wike and Bruce Stokes of the Pew Center did the research. ***
Taking these two items in reverse order, the graph above is probably the most discouraging one in this slide presentation, at least from an American perspective. Time will tell whether the U.S. or the rest of the world has the more accurate assessment. It cannot help, however, that, as the world judges politics and national interest, American politics seem to be separating from American interests. That is one way of looking at the ExIm Bank saga.
As noted, Joe Oliver will decide on Canada's participation in AIIB based on whether joining would help Canadian businesses. Admittedly, the Export-Import Bank of the United States is a different kind of bank. Development is not its primary business. Helping U.S. companies is, and yet America is shutting it down.
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