THE TTALK QUOTES 

On Global Trade & Investment

 

Published Three Times a Week By

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No. 1 of 2015 

TUESDAY, JANUARY 6, 2015      

 

   

Filed from Portland, Oregon  

     

Click here for the December 31 quote from Ambassador Punke in Geneva.
AMERICA'S PORTS:
TIPPING POINT (AND HOPE) ON THE WEST COAST

"The congestion in the terminals is near a breaking point."

Wade Gates
January 2, 2015
CONTEXT
Editor's Note & Update: Last night the Acting Director of the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service, Allison Beck, announced the appointment of a mediator in the West Coast ports dispute.  In her words: "Deputy Director Scot Beckenbaugh, a senior FMCS mediator with extensive collective bargaining experience in this industry, has been assigned to help the parties bring these important negotiations to a mutually acceptable resolution."  This changes the context for today's TTALK Quote but not the essential background.

***

Wade Gates is a spokesman for the Pacific Maritime Association, PMA, and today's quote is from a PMA press release on the deteriorating conditions in the West Coast ports.  PMA represents the port operators and shippers.  The workers at those ports are represented by the International Longshore and Warehouse Union, ILWU, and they have been working without a contract since last July.  And, yes, they have been working-sort of.  And, no, there has been no strike or lockout-yet. 

On December 15, the president of the ILWU, Bob McEllrath, explained the situation to his members this way:

"We're now entering our 8th month of talks, which is completely new territory.  This is the longest set of negotiations in recent history - at least since 1971, when there was a 134-day strike."

But there is more here to be concerned about than simply the length of the conversation.  Ships are stacking up or turning away.  Cargo is not moving as it should.   According to PMA, the efficiency of the West Coast ports - most importantly those of Long Beach and Los Angeles - is only 40 to 60 percent of what it had been, and the ripples from those differentials are killing jobs and disrupting commerce in all sorts of places.

Jon Gold of the National Retail Federation highlighted some of the problems in a recent article:

McDonald's in Japan was, for a while, limiting customers there to small orders of fries only.  The medium and large sizes were off the menu because of port-caused shortages.  Reportedly, those restrictions were lifted yesterday (at least for now) after McDonalds (expensively) airlifted supplies to its restaurants in Japan.
 
lululemon athletica, the Canadian maker of sportswear for yoga and other activities, has reportedly lost millions from delayed shipments.

Those two examples are just the tip of the iceberg.  Lots and lots of companies have been hurt by the slowdown or fear that they might be.  In a joint report, the National Association of Manufacturers and the National Retail Federation estimate that if there is a full work stoppage on the West Coat - either strike or lockout - the cost to the U.S. economy could be $2 billion a day or more, depending on how long it lasts.

Against that background, 167 U.S. organizations sent a letter to President Obama on December 23, 2014, urging federal mediation.  Here is the  concluding paragraph of that letter:

"Our organizations continue to believe that both parties can reach an agreement that will ensure the continued success and competitiveness of these ports for the foreseeable future.  However, after seven months of negotiations, with little progress, we believe federal mediation is needed to help them reach a conclusion.  With an official request from the PMA for a mediator, we urge the administration to work with both parties to appoint a mediator from the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service (FMCS) in order to help them conclude their negotiations as quickly as possible."

Our understanding is that FMCS mediation must be voluntary.  The PMA, the owners, asked for mediation a while ago, and now the union has.  

COMMENT
The modern, supply-chain driven world only works if the ports work. The members of many of the associations that signed the December 23 letter to President are concerned about the timely delivery of the parts they need to keep working.  Others are worried about getting their goods to foreign customers.  The Motor and Equipment Manufacturers Association signed the letter as did the Global Automakers.  So too did the Mississippi Poultry Association, the Wisconsin Soybean Growers Association, and the Idaho Potato Commission.  We'll come back to some other affected companies in Idaho in a minute.

First, though, it is worth asking the question, what is at stake?  The answers seem obvious.  For the union it is jobs, and for the ports and shippers it is costs.  In an editorial on the issue last Sunday, The Long Beach Press-Telegram talked about the jobs this way:

"Dockworkers, who the PMA says earn on average more than $147,000, hold a prized place.  They are the gold standard of high-earning blue collar workers.  But they, like so many Americans fear their jobs will be replaced by machines."

So yes, automation is one issue.  Another is the difficulty of adjusting to larger ships with more containers.  And still another is the future of the West Coast ports.  Will the modernization of the Panama Canal - or planned Chinese-built canal for Nicaragua - ultimately take business away from the West Coast ports?  Our guess is that those issues are on everyone's mind, but they don't all fit easily into contract negotiations.  So the PMA and the ILWU fight about staffing.  The union says PMA is not using the crews they used to use.  PMA say that the ILWU is holding back the crane operators that are critical to getting the job done.  To quote Wade Gates again:

"Removing qualified yard drivers from terminal operations is the equivalent of a football coach sending out 10 players and no quarterback.  You can't run the play effectively."

***

These aren't issues that the potato and alfalfa growers of Idaho can do much about.  They wish they could.   Their futures depend on it.    We'll end with these two observation from landlocked Idaho:

Karan Jones is the president of a customs broker/logistical services company in Boise.  Her small company has taken a big hit.  She told The Idaho Statesman:

"I've been doing this since 1985, and I've been through a lot of slowdowns and strikes.  This is the weirdest one, and it just keeps going."

The same Statesman article quotes Dusty Standlee, the president of Standlee Hay, a forage company with customers abroad, on the possible long-term effects of the slow-down.  He said:

"[W]e have contracts in place that are at risk of being voided by our customer because we cannot deliver.  They will buy from Canada, Australia, Sudan or Spain."

And that too is a threat to those good paying jobs on the docks.

SOURCES & LINKS
An FMCS Announcement is the January 5 press release from the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service on the naming of a mediator.
 
PMA appeals to the ILWU is the January 2 PMA press release that was the source for today's featured quote.  The argument of the release is that the union has been withholding the services of key crane drivers, thereby exacerbating the congestion on the West Coast ports.

Longshore Caucus is a link to an ILWU newsletter article with the quote from Bob McEllrath.

Retail Federation Weighs In takes you to Jon Gold's article "A Global Perspective on the West Coast Port Standoff."  The same article provides a link to the report on this issue prepared by the National Retail Federation and the National Association of Manufacturers.

A Letter to President Obama is the text of the December 23, 2014, letter on the West Coast port situation quoted above.

Press-Telegram Editorial is a link to the argument in favor of mediation.

Idaho Stung is an exceptionally useful article by Zach Kyle in the Idaho Statesman on the effects of the slow-down in the ports on companies in Idaho.

An Opportunity for China? takes you to a blog by Thomas Lee that links the slow-down in the West Coast ports to other developments, notably the upgrading of the Panama Canal and the possibility of a Chinese built trans-ocean canal in Nicaragua.
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