THE TTALK QUOTES 

On Global Trade & Investment

 

Published Three Times a Week By

The Global Business Dialogue, Inc.

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No. 73 of 2014 

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 29, 2014     

 

   

Filed from Portland, Oregon  

     

Click here for Monday's TPP Quote from Tim Groser
ON TRADE AND NATIONAL SECURITY

"Broadly defined to include investment, shipping, tourism, and the management of enterprises, trade is what most of international relations are about.  For that reason trade is national security policy."

Thomas Schelling as quoted by Michael Froman
November/December 2014 (publication date)
CONTEXT
The article by U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman in the current issue of Foreign Affairs has already been widely quoted, as well it should have been.  It is an important piece.  Understandably, much of the writing about that article has focused on what he said about fast-track or trade promotion authority (TPA).  After all, there is at least a chance that Congress will consider TPA legislation after next week's election, in the lame duck session.  Ambassador Froman held his fire on TPA until the end of his Foreign Affairs article.  We too will focus first on other things.

Our guess is that most of the readers of these pages will already have read (or will soon read) Ambassador Froman's article.  So we'll keep these CliffsNotes fairly short.

The title of the article is "The Strategic Logic of Trade: New Rules of the Road for the Global Market."  In his opening sentence, Ambassador Froman declares: "For much of the twentieth century, leaders and policymakers around the world viewed the strategic importance of trade, and international economic policy more generally, largely through the lens of military strength."  He continues: "[T]hey now understand prosperity to be a principal means by which countries measure and exercise power."

Today's featured quote from the economist and Nobel Laureate Thomas Schelling shows up in the second paragraph.  Dr. Schelling has been a prolific writer and is now a Distinguished University Professor Emeritus at the University of Maryland.  We are not precisely sure where this particular quote came from.  It is powerful by itself, but its immediate importance derives from its endorsement, its quotation by America's top trade official.  And Ambassador Froman doesn't drop the point.  He reinforces it, writing, for example, "If anyone doubts the strategic importance of trade, consider Russia's reaction during the past year to the prospect of Ukraine deepening its trade ties with the West."

America's trade agenda today is large and ambitious.  Mr. Froman doesn't try to cover all of it but focuses on these four things:

The value of trade generally - the $2.3 trillion of U.S. exports in 2013 and the 11.3 million jobs they supported.

TPP, The Trans-Pacific Partnership, which "represents a main pillar of the Obama administration's broader strategy of rebalancing toward Asia."

T-TIP, The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, which, he writes, "presents an enormous opportunity to increase trade, potentially grow the economies of the United States and its European partners by hundreds of billions of dollars, and support hundreds of thousands of additional jobs.

AGOA, the African Growth and Opportunity Act, which "has become the cornerstone of U.S. trade policy with sub-Saharan African."   The idea of renewing AGAO does enjoy broad bipartisan support in Congress, but it needs to be renewed. The current law expires next September.   And

TPA, Trade Promotion Authority, a.k.a. Fast Track.  On this possibly imminent topic, Ambassador Froman writes:

"Congress's involvement [in trade] could be further enhanced and institutionalized by the passage of trade promotion authority, which would allow Congress to guide trade policy by laying out the United States negotiating objectives, defining how the executive branch must consult with Congress about trade agreements, and detailing the legislative procedures that will guide Congress's consideration of trade agreements."

COMMENT
We'll make the leap from the very particular to the very general and assert that the following is true for most if not all readers reacting to most if not all writing.  Occasionally there are passages that elicit strong endorsement - where you want to cry out: "Yes, yes.  He's got it!"  (We had that reaction to the Schelling quote.) For the most part, however, all readers have quibbles and quarrels with all writers, especially those writing about politics, about issues.  We have our quarrels with Ambassador Froman.  The larger point, however, is that we are awfully glad he wrote this piece.  It is helpful.

Trade Promotion Authority.  Working backwards, the paragraph above on TPA is a praiseworthy olive branch to the Congress.  It's fulsome description of what TPA should contain is complete and on the mark. 

But yes, we have two quarrels with it. First, it isn't just that "Congress's involvement could be further enhanced."  The reality is that Congress will be the decision maker on any final agreement, and Congress could hardly have expressed its desire for TPA legislation more forcefully.

Second, there will be no TPA without a fight.  The AFL-CIO, for example, has already launched an anti-TPA ad campaign.  Given the number of trade skeptics in Congress, we simply cannot imagine TPA legislation - or any trade bill - making it to the President's desk unless the Administration is fully engaged in the effort.

T-TIP.  We will not go through each of the issues cited above, but we will offer a brief comment about T-TIP, the hoped-for deal between the U.S. and the European Union.   Matthew Dalton of The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday on a dinner for reporters that the EU's out-going trade commissioner, Karel De Gucht, hosted on Monday.  Mr. De Gucht didn't hold back.  At one point he told the group, "I am not cautious."  And on T-TIP , he wasn't very optimistic either.  There have been more than a few negative signals on T-TIP from the commissioners who will take over the running of the EU executive arm at the end of this week.  Against that background, Mr. De Gucht said, "I think they [the Americans] will hesitate very much about relaunching negotiations next year."

We think the lesson in Commissioner De Gucht's remark is this.  The important trade initiatives Ambassador Froman discussed in his article are all windows of opportunity.  Such windows don't stay open forever.
SOURCES & LINKS
Strategic Logic of Trade is a link to Ambassador Froman's article in the current issue of Foreign Affairs, which was the source for today's quote.

Dinner with De Gucht takes you to The Wall Street Journal article referenced above.

About Thomas Schelling is a link to the biography of this important economist on the University of Maryland website.

The Campaign Against Fast Track is a link to the page of the AFL-CIO website about this campaign.
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