THE TTALK QUOTES 

On Global Trade & Investment

 

Published Three Times a Week By

The Global Business Dialogue, Inc.

Washington, DC   Tel: 202-463-5074

Email: [email protected]

 

No. 56 of 2014 

FRIDAY, AUGUST 1, 2014     

 

   

Filed from Portland, Oregon  

     

Click here for Thursday's quote from Ambassador's Froman's AGOA speech on July 29th. 
TRADE FACILITATION: A WTO SETBACK

"This is not just another delay which can simply be ignored or accommodated into a new timetable - this will have consequences."

Roberto Azev�do
July 31, 2014


CONTEXT
The great success of the WTO's 9th Ministerial Conference in Bali last December was the Trade Facilitation Agreement.  It was a real success, and it re-energized the WTO.  But there were loose ends.  Further action by the WTO's General Council would need to be taken to make the Trade Facilitation Agreement part of the WTO's system of rules and obligations.   In the language of the Ministerial statement:

"The General Council shall meet no later than 31 July 2014 to annex to the Agreement notifications of Category A commitments, to adopt the Protocol drawn up by the Preparatory Committee, and to open the Protocol for acceptance until 31 July 2015. The Protocol shall enter into force in accordance with Article X:3 of the WTO Agreement."

Well, July 31st has come and gone, and the Protocol - in effect the Trade Facilitation Agreement - was not adopted.  That is the situation that Director-General Azev�do addressed last night in Geneva. When he spoke there were a few hours left, but as he said:

"My understanding is that the remaining gaps are unbridgeable."

Today is the 1st of August, and, regrettably, the Director-General's pre-deadline assessment is now unassailable.  As for his summation of the differences between India and her supporters one the side and the bulk of the WTO membership on the other, it is as gentle a version of the situation as we are likely to find.  He said:

"On the one side we have the firm conviction, shared by many, that the decisions that ministers reached in Bali cannot be changed or amended in any way - and that those decisions have to be fully respected.

"And on the other side of the debate we have some [primarily India] who believe that those decisions leave unresolved concerns that need to be addressed in ways that, in the view of others, change the balance of what was agreed in Bali.

"These are the two sides."

Finally, we recognize that when we excerpt a quote from a larger statement, as we did today, it may seem stronger than might have been intended.  You should click the link below and read or listen to Mr. Azev�do's statement for yourself.  For the record, though, here is the full paragraph with today's quote:

"My sense, in the light of the things I hear from you, is that this is not just another delay which can simply be ignored or accommodated into a new timetable - this will have consequences. And it seems to me, from what I hear in my conversations with you, that the consequences are likely to be significant."

COMMENT
Two metaphors come to mind in thinking about this disappointment.  The first, rather obvious one, is Cinderella's coach.  Like that glittering transport turned back into a pumpkin, at midnight last night the WTO trade facilitation agreement became again what it was last fall, a good idea but not much more.   To be fair, there was more to the Cinderella story, and there will be more to this one.  A happy ending, however, is not a certainty.
 
In the meantime, there will be tons of analysis as to what these developments mean for the WTO, for India, for the trading system, and for the small countries that the system may now leave behind.  With respect to India, one wonders, will this enhance India's credibility or erode it?  We don't know.  On the one hand, no one can doubt now that when the Modi government makes a threat, it can and will follow through.  On the other hand, there was a comment tucked away in a Reuters story today that highlighted the downside.  The headline on the story was "India says WTO deal not dead, can sign in September if concerns addressed."   The comment from the unnamed diplomat that caught our eye was this: "The trust that countries have in what India says is going to be significantly diminished."

And the other metaphor?   It comes from a bit family history.  Call it the story of Caitlin's milk. 

Our daughter Caitlin has been an adult for a very long time now.  As Zorba might say she is deep into the full catastrophe: husband, job, child, the works.  This story comes from a time when she was a very little girl.  It was dinner time, and Caitlin was in the middle of saying something.  She moved her arm suddenly and her glass went flying.  Splash!  Broken glass and milk everywhere.  Instantly little Caitlin said, "I didn't do it."

"Yes, you did," said her stern father (your editor). "But it's okay.  It doesn't matter."

And it didn't matter.  The little girl had not meant to spill her milk, and it was all easily cleaned up.  That's not the case here.  Those who blocked the trade facilitation deal yesterday knew exactly what they were doing, and the mess will be around for quite some time. 
SOURCES & LINKS
The Director-General�'s Report is a link to the WTO website, where you will find Director-General Azev�do's report yesterday to the Trade Negotiations Committee.
 
From MC9 takes you to the document from the Bali Ministerial quoted above.

Deal Not Dead takes you to the Reuters story with this theme.
SUBSCRIBE
If you want to receive these TTALK Quotes, we're happy to send them to you.  That's the deal.  If you want to help and ensure that they keep coming, please


SUBSCRIBE NOW
It's just $50 a year.  Click here and you' re done.

Buy Now
Thank you.

Note: GBD Members are already subscribers and we thank them for their membership and support.

 

 

 

 

TO GET THE TTALK DAILY QUOTE IN YOUR INBOX

 

Or Other GBD Notices, Click below. 

Join Our Mailing List

 

� 2014 The Global Business Dialogue, Inc.

1140 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 950

Washington, DC   20036

Tel: (202) 463-5074

R. K. Morris, Editor

www.gbdinc.org