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No. 14 of 2014 

FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 21, 2014     

 

   

Filed from Portland, Oregon   

     

Click here for last Friday's quote from Mark Leonard on the U.S. and China.
T-TIP AND REGULATIONS - TRADE'S NEW COMPLEXITIES

"[R]egulators, not trade negotiators, are in charge of regulations.  We will get nowhere without their full implication in our work."

Karel De Gucht
February 18, 2014
CONTEXT
This week got off to a good start with two days of meetings - the 17th and the 18th - between the top trade officials of the United States and the European Union: USTR Michael Froman and EU Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht. Together they took stock of the progress to date in the negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (T-TIP).  It is not the mere fact of those meetings that justifies the "good start" description.  No, we base that on the assessment of the principals, especially Mr. De Gucht's comment that "Mike and I agree things are on track."

The two officials didn't just talk to one another.  On Tuesday, February 18, each gave an important speech.  Ambassador Froman spoke to the Center for American Progress on the topic "A Values-Driven Trade Policy."  As the title suggests, it was a speech that cut across different negotiations, and we expect to draw on elements of it in later entries. 

Commissioner De Gucht spoke at the Atlantic Council and limited his remarks to T-TIP.  He gave his talk the title "Towards the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership: Stepping up a Gear."   That speech was the source for today's quote, and regulation was the third and final broad area of the negotiations Mr. De Gucht discussed.  Here is how he began that segment of his remarks:

"The final area we need to work on is certainly the most difficult.  But also the most important: reducing regulatory differences to facilitate trade.

"It's difficult technically and difficult politically.

"The technical difficulties are obvious.  In what we might call the good old days, trade negotiators only had to work with tariffs and quotas.  Those are fairly simple tools to understand.  As are the effects of changing them.

"However, if - as trade negotiators - we want to deal with regulatory issues, our discussion suddenly becomes broader and more complex.  Broader because - and it's obvious - regulators, not trade negotiators, are in charge of regulations.  We will get nowhere without their full implication in our work."

Mr. De Gucht had more to say on regulation and so shall we.  First, however, we should take note of some of the other elements of Mr. De Gucht's assessment of the negotiations.

Market Access.    "This week we exchanged our first tariff offers," Commissioner De Gucht said.  On services, he said he was confident that the two sides would exchange offers soon.  On government procurement, he said, "Our objective should be to remove discrimination between European and American firms in either of our markets."

Rules.  Here Commissioner De Gucht's comments largely highlighted areas where there is already an assumption of broad agreement between the EU and the U.S.   In these areas the goal is perhaps better thought of as setting a standard for the world than as bridging a gap between the U.S. and the EU.  Trade Facilitation, the treatment of State-Owned Enterprises, and policies on Trade in Energy and Raw Materials are all examples issues in this category.

COMMENT
In the swirl of politics.  We chose today's featured quote because it captures and important element of T-TIP's biggest challenge, that is, weaving enhanced regulatory cooperation into a very large trade agreement.  If we have a favorite passage, however, it is this one:

"[A]long side all of these decision-making processes, we know that the public debate between interest groups of all stripes is every bit as political, every bit as passionate, as any electoral campaign - regardless [of] whether it refers to primary law or executive action."

We like it because we think it's true.  And whether it was intentional or not, we applaud Commissioner De Gucht's reference  to "interest groups" rather than "civil society," a phraseology which often suggests an undemocratic superior standing of one group over another.

Timing and Sequencing.  At the start of his remarks, Commissioner De Gucht talked about the oft mentioned goal of finishing the T-TIP negotiations "on the now proverbial single tank of gas."  You, the reader, may have a clear idea what that means.  We do not.  With elections for the European Parliament now scheduled for late May, and with a new Commission coming into office shortly thereafter, Commissioner De Gucht is clearly engaged in a project that a successor will finish. 

And given the sheer size of the undertaking, the realist would at least consider the possibility that it will be the successors to President Obama and Ambassador Froman who ultimately sign and implement a T-TIP agreement.

In terms of that tank of gas, this isn't a trip to the grocery store.  It is a cross-country, trans-continental journey.  The question isn't whether they can finish on a single tank of gas.  The question is, how far can they go on the gas they have?  Certainly, both sides deserve credit for trying to get as much done in the next few months as possible.

At this juncture, we are far more inclined to praise than question the vision at the heart of the T-TIP negotiations.  Yet when we think about the sectors already targeted for closer regulatory cooperation - cars, food, food labeling, medicines, etc. - we wonder if the vision can hold.  The time may come when governments might ask themselves: would a one-at-a-time approach to regulatory issues make more sense?  If and when they do, part of the calculation will be practical: can agreements be reached in the various sectors?  And part of it will be political: will a large regulatory package fare better because it will have more friends, or will a smaller packages be more likely to succeed because they have fewer enemies?

Those questions are a long way off.  Now the challenge is to get as much done as possible and as quickly as possible, starting with the Fourth Round of T-TIP negotiations next month in Brussels.
RELATED EVENT - THE T-TIP JOURNEY
The T-TIP Journey - An Assessment is GBD's next colloquium.  It will be held at McDermott Will & Emery on Tuesday, March 11 (9 a.m. to 10:30 a.m.).   John Cridland, the Director General of the Confederation of British Industry will lead off this private sector assessment of the T-TIP talks.  Click the link for registration options and speakers, and join us on March 11.
SOURCES & LINKS
At the Atlantic Council is a link to the text of Commissioner De Gucht's speech on February 18, which was the source for today's quote.

At the Center for America Progress is a link to the text of Ambassador Froman's speech on the same day.

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