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THE TTALK QUOTES
On Global Trade & Investment
Published Three (Sometimes Four) Times a Week By
The Global Business Dialogue, Inc.
Washington, DC Tel: 202-463-5074
Email: Comments@gbdinc.org
No. 90 of 2013
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THURSDAY, DECEMBER 5, 2013
Filed from Bali, Indonesia
Click here for last Friday's pre-Bali assurance from Roberto Azevźdo.
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IMPLEMENTING A BALI PACKAGE"If we find that we need to do an implementing bill, it is going to have to be enacted the old fashioned way. It will be fully debatable. It will be amendable. All of that ... ."
John MagnusDecember 4, 2013
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PRELUDE
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This entry is not about the state of play in the WTO negotiations here in Bali. It is about a single presentation at yesterday's GBD event "Bringing Bali Home." Still, a word on the negotiations is in order, and we will try to include a short update in any TTALK Quote filed from Bali. This is the first. Yesterday morning (December 4), the hall chatter included the notion that the whole thing - that is the hope for agreement on a Bali package - might come to end that afternoon. It didn't. Rather our impression at the end of the day was that the talks are likely to go to the end - sometime before mid-night on Friday, December 6 - or, at least, close to the end. If there were developments last night, we have not learned of them yet, but the headline in this morning's Jakarta Post is fairly telling: "SBY [Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono] to call [Indian Prime Minister Manmohan] Singh to save WTO."
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CONTEXT
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The brochure we distributed at yesterday's GBD session included the Latin motto "Dum vita est, spes est - Where there is life there is hope." The first presentation could hardly have been more expressive of the hope for agreement on a Bali Package. The presenter was John Magnus of TradeWins, an expert on U.S. trade law who is here in Bali representing the ABA [American Bar Association] Section of International Law.
He began with a quick review of how the United States usually implements trade agreements. He then moved to the very different situation that would confront a Bali package. First, a Bali package would not enjoy the protective benefits of Trade Promotion Authority. That is the point underscored in today's featured quote. More broadly, the usual intensive planning for bringing a trade agreement home - now evident vis-ą-vis a possible Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement - has not been part of the preparations for Bali. Why? Because the working assumption is that the United States will not need legislation to implement a Bali package.
Indeed, Mr. Magnus said, the U.S. negotiating team has been told, "Don't agree to anything in Bali that would require implementing legislation." Nor does Mr. Magnus expect Congressional action on a Bali package. Describing the environment for trade legislation in the United States as "rancid," Mr. Magnus said his view was that "we are not going to see a trade vote on anything next year."
Though it is not entirely clear where different pieces of the Bali package would fit, there are some obvious match-ups. Elements affecting agricultural subsidies would presumably make their way into the farm bill, and the major provisions of a Trade Facilitation agreement can be expected to relate to the Customs reauthorization legislation etc.
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COMMENT
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Our impression is that the trade leaders in Congress have been focused more on the large regional negotiations - TPP in the Pacific and T-TIP in the Atlantic - than on the WTO. That said, it is not clear that Congress would be content to allow a Bali package to be implemented without Congressional input. But, of course, first there has to be a Bali package. No package, no issue - at least not as far as U.S. legislation is concerned.
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© 2013 The Global Business Dialogue, Inc.
1140 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 950
Washington, DC 20036
Tel: (202) 463-5074
R. K. Morris, Editor
www.gbdinc.org
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