10th November 2016

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HealthChat - Xmas Special
Simon Stevens
In conversation with Roy Lilley
6th December - King's Fund - Details here.
News and Comment from Roy Lilley
I predicted Trump would win.  I really did!  Not because I'm smart but because I've been watching MoglA.

... a data-crunching artificial intelligence system that's correctly predicted the last three US presidential elections.

The candidate in each election who led in social media engagement data ended up winning the presidency.  MoglA crunches 20 million data points from sites such as Google, Facebook, Twitter and YouTube.

The creator of MogIA, Sanjiv Rai, founder of the Indian startup company Genic.ai, said;

"If Trump loses, it will defy the data trend for the first time in the last 12 years... since internet engagement began in earnest."

The massive amount of data in social media posts is tough to analyse. Just because somebody engages with a Trump tweet, it doesn't mean they also support him but analysis has got smarter.  

As data analysis has got cleverer conventional polling from the likes of Your-Glove and Flip-Flop-Mori has got less dependable.

I'll make another prediction; the Tories will not win the next election.

In the US Trump won because he is a leader.  How many times have I written; 

Leaders are visible, have a vision and share it often.

He must have been reading my stuff!  That's exactly what he has done.  You may not like his vision but leaders come in all shapes and sizes and are not necessarily the alumni of the NHS Leadership Academy.

The vision?  Simple; immigration and the economy.  Not all the Trump voters are misogynistic, loose cannons who hate muslims and want to build walls.  They don't all have long beards and ride motor-bikes.

They are ordinary people hacked-off by politicians.  

Look at the outcome data; it will be blue collar workers from all ethnic backgrounds, fearful for their future.  Men and women.

The Clintons represent a past that looks like it has failed.    They had no narrative beyond polishing-up more of the same.

Think about Brexit.  Look at the polling outcomes.  There is a trend.  Poorer areas, hit by an influx of migrants, voted to come out of the EU.  People sick of politicians who don't deliver for them.  Even in areas where they had benefitted from EU funding.

The 'leavers' had a simple message, take back our borders, make our own laws, handle our own migration rules.  Make the UK great again.  Backed by lies about the NHS.  Plausible but a lie.   

The remainers had no narrative other than polish-up more of the same.

The inexperienced, once bankrupt, reality TV person who is now the president of the USA (elect) wanted to 'drain the swamp', 'lock her up' and 'build a wall'.  Make American get again.  

Simple messages.  Has to be plausible but not necessarily true.  The future of the US and the free world is in his hands.

He does have an interesting health policy, which, in the context of the US, will surprise you.

The future of the UK is now in the hands of people who lied, no real experience of government and Boris who looks like he's slept in the laundry basket, gets his hair cut at B&Q and hopes we think he's clever coz 'he knows Latin'.

I judge people to be  sick to the back teeth of politicians who offer more of the same.  That's why the Tories wont win the next election.  

The economy will not have recovered by 2020 and in-spite of an inevitable injection of last minute bung into public services, before polling day; the Tories will not be forgiven, by working people, for the decimation of public services. 

The big three think-tanks have got their act together and are lining up against government health policy... not before time.  Must read.

The middle classes, by the time of the next election, will be wondering where the NHS has gone.  Posh people have grannies, too.  The wealthy use A&E like the rest of us.

We will have to see if I'm right!

Either way, the narrative; 'we have funded the NHS' own plan' and porkies about 10bn, isn't going to wash come the election.

What I am sure of is data crunching social media trends and austerity politics has left the door open for a new narrative and a new leader.
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Dr Rodney Jones
The latest from our favourite analyst and data cruncher.
Using Social Groups to Locate Areas with High Emergency Department Attendance, Subsequent Inpatient Admission and Need for Critical Care 

Simon Stevens
6th December
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King's Fund
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>>  I'm hearing - major TV company is spending time looking at STP plans.
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In conversation with 
Roy Lilley
King's Fund
9th November 
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