logo

Website               About Us               Programs & Processes               Archive               Links
GEORGE MARGRAVE NEWSLETTER
NUMBER 16 VOLUME III, January 21, 2015
header
George's Real Estate & Mortgage Corner
George Characture

At the beginning of 2014 every talking head on TV and the Internet predicted mortgage rates would rise.  That is not exactly what happened, on a bond price basis rates improved by 5 discount points for roughly 1% in rate.

 

As 2015 gets underway it is important to look at what will drive rates and why.  Here is a short list:

 

Federal Reserve:  All eyes will be on Chairperson Yellen and the policy posse.  Quantitative easing came to and end with no major market disruption.  The next issue the Fed has to tackle is when to begin raising rates.  Mrs. Yellen has been very clear since assuming the role as Fed Head that any actions the Fed takes will be "data dependant".   OK, so what will THEY be watching?

 

Jobs:  The unemployment rate has fallen well below the levels where it was previously thought the Fed would act on a rate hike.  The unemployment rate stands at 5.6%.  As more people found work and the unemployment rate declined the economy did not improve as much as hoped.  Despite earlier benchmarks set by the Fed to take action on rates, we learned that the benchmark is a "moving target".  This goes back to Mrs. Yellen's statement on data dependency.

 

Dollar:  What an interesting story the dollar has been.  The US dollar is the world's reserve currency and its value vs. other currencies is extremely important.  A strong US dollar makes imported goods cheaper however it has an opposite effect for exports.  Commodities are priced in dollars.  All other influences being equal, a rising dollar will bring cheaper food and energy costs to US consumers. That is one reason the price of gas has dropped.  Speaking of gas, let's move to oil.

 

Oil:  Without a doubt, the decline in the price of oil was the biggest financial story of the year.  There are several reasons for the drop, not the least of which is the ingenuity of the US oil industry.  The ability to extract oil from shale rock (fracking) is only five years old however it has literally reshaped the global landscape and upset the balance of power in several areas.  The cost to produce oil in the US continues to decline driven by advances in technology.  Some estimates have the US consumer saving $288B (1/4 of a TRILLION) dollars a year in the price of gas alone.   While this is a good thing, it also pressures inflation well below the Feds target rate of 2%.  This circles us back to the Federal Reserve.

 

If it sound like a circular reference, from the Fed to jobs to the dollar to oil and back to Fed, you would be correct.  The US economy as measured by GDP is an $18 trillion dollar monster with many moving parts, which are all interconnected. 

 

From Rate Link


Bible Verse of the Week
A perverse person stirs up conflict,
and a gossip separates close friends.
Proverbs 16:28

 

10 Financial Terms Everyone Should Know

 

Understanding financial matters can be difficult if you don't understand the jargon. Becoming familiar with these 10 financial terms may help make things clearer.

1. Time value of money

The time value of money is the concept that money on hand today is worth more than the same amount of money in the future, because the money you have today could be invested to earn interest and increase in value.

Why is it important? Understanding that money today is worth more than the same amount in the future can help you evaluate investments that offer different potential rates of return.

2. Inflation

Inflation reflects any overall upward movement in the price of consumer goods and services and is usually associated with the loss of purchasing power over time.

Why is it important? Because inflation generally pushes the cost of goods and services higher, any estimate of how much you'll need in the future--for example, how much you'll need to save for retirement--should take into account the potential impact of inflation.

3. Volatility

Volatility is a measure of the rate at which the price of a security moves up and down. If the price of a security historically changes rapidly over a short period of time, its volatility is high. Conversely, if the price rarely changes, its volatility is low.

Why is it important? Understanding volatility can help you evaluate whether a particular investment is suited to your investing style and risk tolerance.

4. Asset allocation

Asset allocation means spreading investments over a variety of asset categories, such as equities, cash, bonds, etc.

Why is it important? How you allocate your assets depends on a number of factors, including your risk tolerance and your desired return. Diversifying your investments among a variety of asset classes can help you manage volatility and investment risk. Asset allocation and diversification do not guarantee a profit or protect against investment loss.

5. Net worth

Net worth is what your total holdings are worth after subtracting all of your financial obligations.

Why is it important? Your net worth may fund most of your retirement years. So the faster and higher your net worth grows, the more it may help you in retirement. For retirees, a typical goal is to preserve net worth to last through the retirement years.

6. Five C's of credit

These are character, capacity, capital, collateral, and conditions. They're the primary elements lenders evaluate to determine whether to make you a loan.

Why is it important? With a better understanding of how your banker is going to view and assess your creditworthiness, you will be better prepared to qualify for the loan you want and obtain a better interest rate.

7. Sustainable withdrawal rate

Sustainable withdrawal rate is the maximum percentage that you can withdraw from an investment portfolio each year to provide income that will last, with reasonable certainty, as long as you need it.

Why is it important? Your retirement lifestyle will depend not only on your assets and investment choices, but also on how quickly you draw down your retirement portfolio.

8. Tax deferral

Tax deferral refers to the opportunity to defer current taxes until sometime in the future.

Why is it important? Contributions and any earnings produced in tax-deferred vehicles like 401(k)s and IRAs are not taxed until withdrawn. This allows those earnings to compound, further adding to potential investment growth.

9. Risk/return trade-off

This concept holds that you must be willing to accept greater risk in order to achieve a higher potential return.

Why is it important? When considering your investments, the goal is to get the greatest return for the level of risk you're willing to take, or to minimize the risk involved in trying for a given return. All investing involves risk, including the loss of principal, and there can be no assurance that any investing strategy will be successful.

10. The Fed

The Federal Reserve, or "the Fed" as it's commonly called for short, is the central bank of the United States.

Why is it important? The Fed has three main objectives: maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. The Fed sets U.S. monetary policy to further these objectives, and over the years its duties have expanded to include maintaining the stability of the entire U.S. financial system. 

-From Martin Porter

 

CREDIT 101



Set up automatic bill pay to avoid being late, especially if you tend to procrastinate, you're unorganized, or you travel a lot.
 
CLICK HERE if you can't see the image/video

THANKS FOR WATCHING!
 
Financial Tip 012115
Financial Tip 012115

 How Much is Your Time Worth

We seem to vacillate between complaining that there is not enough time (as we rush to complete our projects) and that there is too much time (as we anxiously wait for the plane to arrive). Most of us mourn the lack of hours in a day as we try to do all that we require of ourselves.

 

We are given the gift of time (86,400 seconds per day) that must be used each day, or it is lost forever. We are bombarded with information about the importance of time. We attend time management seminars, read books and articles on time-saving techniques, and still we do not seem to have "enough" time.

 

How much emphasis do we place on time? Look around your environment. Everywhere you will find reminders... How many watches or clocks do you have in your home? Do you feel anxious if you leave your watch at home when going to work? Do you lose track of time and panic?

 

How much is your time worth? What kind of value do we place on time? Does the value that you place on time vary according to the events in your life?

 

###############################

 

To realize the value of ONE YEAR, ask the student who has failed his class.

To realize the value of ONE MONTH, ask the mother who has given birth to a premature baby.

To realize the value of ONE WEEK, ask the editor of a weekly newspaper.

To realize the value of ONE DAY, ask the daily wage laborer who has ten kids to feed.

To realize the value of ONE HOUR, ask the lovers who are waiting to meet again.

To realize the value of ONE MINUTE, ask the person who has just missed the train.

To realize the value of ONE SECOND, ask the person who has survived an accident.

To realize the value of MILLI-SECOND, ask the person who has won a silver medal in the Olympics.

 

(Author unknown)

 

www.workplaceissues.com  

Personal Note

Last weekend was a lot nicer.  The sunshine set the mood.  I had a Deacons meeting Saturday morning.  There was some training time involved.  So Carolyn went to run with InnerStrength.  Fortunately the weather stayed nice and I got in 4 miles on our new Greenway on Sunday afternoon.  In between I went to visit my Dad in the rehab center and Saturday afternoon we went to see American Sniper.  Sunday, we went to Church, brunch and home for some R&R and football. 

Contact Information














615-777-HOME(4663) Office
615-777-FAXX(3299) Fax
   
750 Old Hickory Blvd.
Brentwood Commons Two, Suite 130
Brentwood, TN 37027
Like us on Facebook  Follow us on Twitter  View our profile on LinkedIn
Check us out on Social Media!

Copyright © 2014. All Rights Reserved.