NEWS UPDATE
AUGUST
2013
WELCOME to the Tennessee State Data Center News Update -- helping you keep abreast and understand the most recent data releases concerning Tennesseeans.
In This Issue
TN COUNTY POP PROJECTIONS
BUSINESS DYNAMIC STATISTICS
TRAINING OPPORTUNITIES
TN EDUCATION STATS
UPCOMING RELEASES
NEW PRODUCTS
NEW! TENNESSEE COUNTY POPULATION PROJECTIONS THROUGH 2064
    

The Tennessee State Data Center just released new population projections through 2064 for Tennessee Counties. Projections are available for each county by age group, by gender and by race. The projections are based on a cohort component method using 2010 Decennial Census data as a baseline. Population projections are an invaluable resource for anticipating and planning for a multitude of issues facing our State in the future--from employment to housing demands. Given that life expectancies have been increasing for decades, planning for the changing demands on our State in terms of the population landscape helps policymakers meet the challenges associated with, among others, an aging workforce, retirement housing, and senior health demands.

General highlights of the State's projected growth are listed below. For a full interactive spreadsheet, including charts, click HERE to download. (Note, the file is large and may take several minutes to download.) 

Tennessee's population was 6.3 million in 2010 and is expected to grow over 55 percent by 2060 to almost 9.9 million people--growing approximately one percent per year. Rutherford County in Middle Tennessee is expected to continue its pace as the fastest-growing county in the state, increasing by 200 percent from 2010, registering a population of 789,826 by 2060. This will move Rutherford County from the fifth-largest county in the State in 2010, to third-largest by 2060. Williamson and Montgomery Counties, also in Middle Tennessee, are expected to more than double their population by 2060. 

Middle Tennessee is expected to lead the state's growth over the next 50 years. Of the seventeen Tennessee counties that are expected to grow faster than the State average through 2060, 11 are located in Middle Tennessee and account for over 55 percent of the total State growth. Four of these fastest-growing counties are located in East Tennessee, while only two are in West Tennessee. Shelby County is expected to continue as the largest county in the State, reaching over 1 million residents by the year 2024, while Davidson County is expected to reach the mark by 2053. Fifteen Tennessee counties are expected to decline by 2060 with Haywood and Carroll Counties in West Tennessee experiencing the largest losses.

The State's population is expected to become more diverse over the next 50 years. The Hispanic population is expected to increase its share of the total Tennessee population from 4.6 in 2010 to 16.8 percent in 2060. While strong growth in the non-Hispanic Other category is expected to increase its share from 3.2 percent in 2010 to 11.5 percent in 2060. The non-Hispanic Black population is expected to remain relatively stable, moving slightly upward from 16.5 percent to 17.7 percent by 2060.

Tennessee's population will continue to age over the next 50 years with the proportion of working- age adults (25 to 64 years) expected to decrease from a 53 percent share of the population in 2010 to only 46 percent by 2060. The working-age population is projected to grow 35 percent during this period, compared to 151 percent growth in the elderly population (65 years and older). By 2060 the elderly population in Tennessee is expected to comprise 21 percent of the State's population, up from only 13 percent in 2010. Further, the proportion of elderly adults in Tennessee who are 75 years old and over is expected to double by 2060, moving from 5.8 percent in 2010 to 11.8 by 2060.

Please visit the Tennessee State Data Center website for these and other statistics. As always, the Tennessee State Data Center is available for any questions you may have regarding these projections.

Interactive Tennessee Population Projections by county, by age, and by race through the year 2064

 

  

BUSINESS DYNAMIC STATISTICS

 

A recent Census Bureau brief highlights the most recent update to the Business Dynamics Statistics (BDS), which found that young firms were disproportionally affected in the recent recession, particularly in states with large declines in home prices. The report concludes that declines in home prices compounded the negative impact of the recession on job creation and growth and that this is important to understanding the depth of the decline and the status of the recovery.

 

The Business Dynamics Statistics (BDS) is a public use data set of annual aggregate statistics describing establishment openings and closings, firm startups, job creation and destruction by firm size, age, industrial sector, and state.

The BDS provides annual statistics from 1976 to 2011 by establishment  and firm characteristics.

 

Further information on the Business Dynamics Statistics release can be found at http://www.census.gov/ces/dataproducts/bds/data.html

TRAINING OPPORTUNITIES

 

The Census Bureau offers both web-based and in-person courses to help you access and use Census Bureau statistics. These free courses can teach you how to use Census databases and mapping tools, find local and national demographic information for a variety of uses including grant proposals, economic data statistics for business plans, research papers, etc. Check out the eTutorials and course descriptions.

 

  

The Tennessee State Data Center is always available to help with your specific data needs. TN SDC Serves as the lead state data center for the State of Tennessee and is housed at the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville. Please contact us with your specific data needs. 
  
Sincerely,
  
Joan Snoderly, Director
Tennessee State Data Center
Tennessee Education Stats

It is August and that signals back-to-school time in Tennessee. According to the Tennessee Department of Education for school year 2011-2012, this means approximately 947,842 children will attend the 1,742 public K-12 schools in the state, while 118,319 children will attend the 605 non-public schools. Minority students accounted for 30 percent of the students in Tennessee public schools during the 2011-2012 school year.

After three straight years of increases from a rate of 7.3 percent in 2007, the percentage of Tennesseans aged 18 and over enrolled in college or graduate school decreased from 8.6 to 8.4 percent (412,684) in 2011. These statistics, from the 2011 American Community Survey, also indicate that a higher proportion of women in Tennessee (9.4 percent) attended college than men (7.4 percent) in 2011. 

Educational attainment is a significant factor in determining earnings as evident by the fact that Tennesseans with at least a bachelor's degree earned almost $17,000 more than those with a high school diploma alone. The median earnings in 2011 of a Tennessean with only a high school diploma is $24,688, while those with a Bachelor's degree was $41,627.

These and other education statistics can be found on the U.S. Census Bureau's American FactFinder website. The Tennessee State Data Center is available to help with locating or analyzing these data.

  

UPCOMING
 RELEASES

Small Area Health Insurance Estimates (SAHIE): 2011 - Number of people with and without health insurance for states and counties. 

 

Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) Employment Reports

- Characteristics of the STEM workforce including changes in STEM employment by sex, race and Hispanic origin from 1970 to 2011, and the relationship between education and employment in a STEM occupation. 

 

Annual Survey of Public Employment and Payroll Summary Report: 2011

- employment statistics from state and local governments by function.

  

New Products Available

 2013 TIGER/Line Shapefiles

The 2013 TIGER/Line Shapefiles include a coastline feature.  The web interface will soon be accessible from the 2013 tab on the TIGER/Line Shapefiles webpage.

 

TIGER Geodatabases

The TIGER Geodatabases provide national (and state-based) files.   

 

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