October 7, 2013

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Make plans to attend MnRA's October 24 Annual Meeting featuring new State Economist
Laura Kalambokidis. Pictured above: attendees at MnRA's 2012 Annual Meeting.
Retail News 
NRF's Annual Holiday Forecast Includes
Modest Gains


From the National Retail Federation, October 3, 2013

NRF expects sales in the months of November and December to increase 3.9 percent to $602.1 billion, over 2012's actual 3.5 percent holiday season sales growth. The forecast is higher than the 10-year average holiday sales growth of 3.3 percent.

"Our forecast is a realistic look at where we are right now in this economy - balancing continued uncertainty in Washington and an economy that has been teetering on incremental growth for years," said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. "Overall, retailers are optimistic for the 2013 holiday season, hoping political debates over government spending and the debt ceiling do not erase any economic progress we've already made."

On the recent government shutdown and NRF's holiday outlook, "Our forecast is also somewhat hinging on Congress and the Administration's actions over the next 45 days; without action, we face the potential of losing the faith Americans have in their leaders, and the pursuant decrease in consumer confidence."

Economic variables including positive growth in the U.S. housing market and increased consumer appetite to buy larger-ticket items give retailers reason to be cautiously optimistic for solid holiday season gains. However, much remains up in the air, including fiscal concerns around the debt ceiling and government funding, income growth and even policies and actions surrounding foreign affairs, all of which could impact holiday sales. According to NRF, the holiday season can account for anywhere from 20-40 percent of a retailer's annual sales, and accounts for approximately 20 percent of total industry annual sales.

"The economy continues to expand, albeit at an unspectacular pace," said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. "In order for consumers to turn out this holiday season, we need to see steady improvements in income and job growth, as well as an agreement from Washington that puts the economic recovery first. Our forecast leaves room for improvement, while at the same time provides a very realistic look at the state of the American consumer and their confidence in our economy."

NRF's holiday sales forecast is based on an economic model using several indicators including consumer confidence, consumer credit, disposable personal income, and previous monthly retail sales releases. It includes the non-store category (direct-to-consumer, kiosks and online sales.) For historic sales information visit NRF's Holiday Headquarters and the Retail Insight Center.

Ecommerce
Shop.org released its 2013 online holiday sales forecast, expecting sales in November and December to grow between 13-15 percent over last holiday season to as much as $82.0 billion.

Seasonal Jobs

According to NRF, retailers are expected to hire between 720,000 and 780,000 seasonal workers this holiday season, in line with the actual 720,500 they hired in 2012, which was a 13 percent year-over-year increase from 2011.

 

MnRA Annual Meeting 
New Minnesota State Economist To Address Retailers At October 24 Annual Meeting

Our state's first-ever female state economist, Laura Kalambokidis, is scheduled to bring a fresh perspective on our economy to the Minnesota Retailers Association Annual Meeting.

The luncheon, titled "The State of Minnesota Retail", takes place October 24 from 11:30 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. at the Ramada Bloomington by the Mall of America.

In addition to the keynote speech by Kalambokidis, MnRA will present the results of a "State of Minnesota Retail" poll, giving attendees an anecdotal look at the attitudes of retailers across the state as they relate to our economy.

 Click here to register.

Government Regulation
Minnesota Officials Get Earful On Proposed Recycling Program

    

From the Star Tribune, Dee Depass, September 30, 2013

"A proposed program that would slap a 10-cent deposit on beverage containers in Minnesota drew concerns Monday as various industries said it could potentially hurt their businesses.

During a public hearing, officials from the grocery, retail, manufacturing and recycling sectors told the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) they feared that deposits on cans and bottles might raise costs and possibly erode their profits.

"When you look at the return on investment, what is the added cost to retailers in terms of sales tax and cost to train? This could drive up the cost of a product," said Bruce Nustad, president of the Minnesota Retailers Association.

The hearing Monday with state officials was required by the Minnesota Legislature. Last spring, it ordered the MPCA to draft a plan showing how a deposit would increase recycling rates.

Minnesotans recycle about 40 percent of all aluminum cans compared with the national average of 65 percent. The legislature's goal for Minnesota is an 80 percent recycling rate.

Susan Collins, president of the Container Recycling Institute, told meeting attendees that she favored a deposit because a similar law in California increased recycling rates, cut litter and helped distribute waste collection costs more evenly across that state.

But officials from other recycling firms including Waste Management worried that separating out valuable aluminum and plastic materials from its trash collection program would eat into revenues."

 


Processing Fees
Swipe Fee Reform Boosts Minnesota Economy, But More Needs To Be Done

  

According to a new economic report released today by the Merchants Payments Coalition (MPC), debit card swipe fee reform has accomplished much of what Congress intended when it passed debit reform legislation in 2010 by pumping a significant infusion of savings and jobs into state economies across the country.

The report-The Costs and Benefits of Half a Loaf: The Economic Effects of Recent Regulation of Debit Card Interchange Fees-can be found at www.unfaircreditcardfees.com.

In Minnesota, the lower debit card swipe fee, which the Federal Reserve dropped from 48 cents per transaction to 24 cents, allowed Minnesota merchants to reduce costs, saving consumers nearly $108 million and spurred the creation of 690 new jobs in 2012.  

 

The report also measured the potential impact on the U.S. economy had the Federal Reserve followed the language of the law.  The Federal Reserve, for example, originally proposed a rate of at most 12 cents per debit swipe.  In Minnesota alone, $51 million would have been generated in consumer savings along with an additional $23 million in merchant savings and this would have been sufficient enough to support an additional 328 jobs.

Had credit card swipe fees been reduced to 24 cents per transaction, Minnesota consumers would have saved an additional $283 million, merchants would have saved another $127 million, and 1,815 new jobs would have been created last year. 

 


Business Climate
Both Parties Take Credit For Minnesota's Business Ranking


State of MN From MinnPost, Doug Grow, September 27, 2013
   

 

Minnesota ranked fifth in "quality of life," ninth in "economic climate," 13th in "growth prospects," 18th in "labor supply," 22nd in "regulatory environment" and 34th in "business costs."

   

You might think that because Forbes magazine now ranks Minnesota as the eighth-best state in the country for doing business, Republicans might drop their lament that the state has a terrible business climate. But instead of dumping that old mantra, at least some in the GOP are taking credit for the lofty rating.

 

 

A quick review: Forbes came out with its new rankings Thursday. The article ranked Virginia as the best state in the land for business, but Minnesota jumped 12 spots, to No. 8. That jump was the largest by any state.

 

 

Among state neighbors, only North Dakota, with its oil windfalls, finished higher than Minnesota. North Dakota was second to Virginia. Meantime, low-tax South Dakota was 11th, Iowa 12th and "open-for-business' Wisconsin was 41st.

Not surprisingly, Gov. Mark Dayton's administration was quick to trumpet the news through the state's Department of Employment and Economic Development. "The word is out that Minnesota is a great place to live and do business," said DEED Commissioner Katie Clark Sieben in a jubilant news release.

But Republicans were almost as quick to say that it's the GOP, not Dayton and the DFL-controlled Legislature, that deserves the credit.  

 



Better Retail
12 Essential Tasks To Complete Before Year End

Did you miss MnRA's September 17 "12 Essential Tasks To Complete Before Year End" seminar featuring Elanstrategic's Yale Dolginow?

If so, Yale has produced a summary of his year-end preparation list and now makes it available to members.

Click on the link below for a copy of the "12 Essential Tasks" checklist and a transcript of the presentation.

  
 See the seminar content here.
Member Service
MnRA's RetailPlus+ Buying Group

The Minnesota Retailers Association (MnRA) has leveraged the collective clout of our members to offer increased savings on the products and services essential to retailers. These vital products and services help Minnesota retailers navigate the often complicated terrain of operating as a retailer.

Thank you for your patience as we redesign the web presence of the RetailPlus+ Buying Group in the coming weeks.

Question on the program? Contact the MnRA staff at (651) 227-6631.  

 
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Minnesota Retailers Associaiton
400 Robert Street North, suite 1540
St. Paul, MN 55101
Tel. (651) 227-6631 - mnretail.org - [email protected]


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