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The Markets
After last week's surprisingly strong employment report, it's almost possible to picture Ben Bernanke slapping trail dust from his leg, ducking his head, and saying, "Just doin' my job."
After all, running the economy is as laden with complications and unexpected events as a cattle drive. Richard Graboyes, an economist who was once the Director of Education for the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, wrote that driving cattle seems "arduous, but simple - walk some cattle from point A to point B. But, the endeavor is fraught with natural and human risks for both rancher and driver."
Clearly, the head of the Fed and the head of a cattle drive face different challenges. According to The Federal Reserve System: Purposes and Functions publication:
"The Federal Reserve sets the nation's monetary policy to promote the objectives of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. The challenge for policymakers is that tensions among the goals can arise in the short run and that information about the economy becomes available only with a lag and may be imperfect."
Last week, the employment numbers seemed to support the idea the economy is gaining steam. According to Forbes, employers added more than 200,000 jobs in October, which was far more than economists had anticipated. The government continued to employ fewer people (employees furloughed during the government shutdown were still counted as being employed). There were 12,000 fewer government jobs in October, and 94,000 fewer for the year. The biggest employment gains were in the hospitality, retail, technical services, manufacturing, and health care sectors.
It's not time to whoop and holler, though. The New York Times reported the labor force participation rate fell to 62.8 percent, which is a 35-year low. More than 700,000 jobs disappeared during October which was the largest monthly drop since the end of 2009. A smaller labor force can make overall unemployment rate appear to be lower than it is. Let's hope the labor force isn't like a herd of cattle that moves too fast and arrives at market a lot skinnier and worth a lot less.
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Data as of 11/8/13
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1-Week
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Y-T-D
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1-Year
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3-Year
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5-Year
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10-Year
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Standard & Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks)
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0.5%
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24.2%
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28.5%
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13.1%
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14.0%
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5.4%
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10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)
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2.8
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NA
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1.6
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2.6
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3.8
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4.5
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Gold (per ounce)
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-1.6
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-24.1
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-25.1
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-2.5
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11.3
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12.9
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DJ-UBS Commodity Index
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-0.5
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-11.4
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-12.9
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-7.1
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-1.2
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-0.3
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DJ Equity All REIT TR Index
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-3.9
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3.6
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8.1
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9.4
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18.4
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9.3
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Notes: S&P 500, Gold, DJ-UBS Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron's, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
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