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The Markets
Like guests feeling the first rain drops at a Memorial Day barbeque, markets responded uncertainly to Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke's congressional testimony and the newly released Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes last week.
Generally, both Bernanke's comments and the FOMC minutes reiterated what the Fed has been saying for some time. According to FOMC minutes, quantitative easing - the Fed's purchase of $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities and $45 billion of longer-term Treasury securities each month - will continue "until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability." The minutes also suggested the Fed's other method for stimulating the economy - low interest rates - "will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens."
Initially, stock market investors responded positively to these messages. On Wednesday morning, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor's 500 Indices gained more than 1 percent. By afternoon, the indices had lost more than 1 percent each. By week's end, the indices had experienced their first weekly losses since late April.
Uncertainty about the future of quantitative easing affected bond and gold markets, as well. By Friday, the yield on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note had risen above 2 percent, reaching its highest level in two months. Gold prices firmed during the week.
Fed policymakers will meet twice before Labor Day - in mid-June and late-July. The minutes of those meetings will be released three weeks after each meeting. If markets respond as they did last week, investors may experience a bumpy ride this summer.
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Data as of 5/24/13
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1-Week
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Y-T-D
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1-Year
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3-Year
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5-Year
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10-Year
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Standard & Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks)
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-1.1%
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15.7%
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25.0%
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15.4%
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3.6%
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5.7%
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10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)
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2.0
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N/A
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1.8
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3.2
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3.8
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3.4
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Gold (per ounce)
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1.6
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-18.0
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-11.4
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5.4
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8.9
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14.1
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DJ-UBS Commodity Index
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0.2
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-5.1
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-0.3
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2.1
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-9.5
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1.1
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DJ Equity All REIT TR Index
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-3.6
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14.0
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24.8
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20.8
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7.0
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11.9
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Notes: S&P 500, Gold, DJ-UBS Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron's, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
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