#JohnNotLeon - a special election commentary

By Andy Brack  |  After all of Leon Stavrinakis's whining about negative campaigning in the race to replace Charleston Mayor Joe Riley, you might have been surprised that the first thing out of his mouth after the polls closed was an attack.

Stavrinakis, who has been a frontrunner for so long that he was obviously stunned that he came in a close second to commercial real estate agent John Tecklenburg on Tuesday, criticized the lead vote-getter as a "developer" in comments to the press.

That's kind of an amazing attempt at a spin, obviously inspired by stunned consultants for a campaign that is off track.  Remember it is Stavrinakis who one columnist dubbed as the "developer's choice" for accepting legal campaign contributions worth tens of thousands of dollars from developers.  And now he's propping up his second-place finish by trying to tar Tecklenburg, who has opposed efforts to get rid of the city's Board of Architectural Review - not exactly a pro-developer position.

Yes, it's true Tecklenburg once served as the city's director of economic development during part of the Riley administration.  His success led to the revitalization of upper King Street.  But that doesn't make him a developer in the classic sense.  He was on the city's payroll, not his own.  And today, his occupation  is to find 21st century uses for old buildings and to sell properties, not make a bunch of money by turning raw land into shiny, expensive homes or buildings.  He's a real estate agent, not a developer.

For the next two weeks, look for the warring campaigns try to secure support from the four candidates who lost, especially in the battlegrounds of the peninsula, where Tecklenburg roundly won, and West Ashley, which favored Stavrinakis.   Some observations based on the results and the chart below:

Precincts.  While Tecklenburg got 270 more overall votes out of 25,000 cast, Stavrinakis won the most votes in 43 precincts, compared to 42 by Tecklenburg.  They tied in one.  William Dudley Gregorie won two precincts; Ginny Deerin, who came in third overall with more than 4,300 votes,  captured most votes in one precinct.

Geography.  Tecklenburg, who now lives in West Ashley, won all six precincts on Daniel Island, where he once had a general store.  He nabbed 18 of 20 precincts in rich, middle class and poor neighborhoods of the peninsula.  And he narrowly won James Island, carrying 12 of 21 precincts.  Stavrinakis, who lives in West Ashley, dominated that area by garnering the most votes in 31 of its 36 precincts.  The five that Tecklenburg won tended to be in older, established neighborhoods.  Stavrinakis also won three of four Johns Island precincts, although those areas yielded comparatively few votes.

Impact of the House district.  Stavrinakis tended to win in precincts where he has run successfully in the past for state representative - in places where people are used to voting for him.   For example, he won both Johns Island precincts in his district and got some of his biggest margins in West Ashley areas around and beyond Interstate 526.  Meanwhile, Tecklenburg carried only three of the 12 West Ashley precincts that also are in Stavrinakis's House district, although Tecklenburg won the neighborhoods around his Old Windermere home.  Tecklenburg also won four of the five James Island precincts represented in the House by Stavrinakis, although those generally had few votes.

With all of this to chew on, here's what to watch for between now and Nov. 17:

Endorsements.  Tecklenburg won the battle of the print endorsements, racking up support from The Post and Courier, Charleston Mercury and Charleston Currents.  He'll publicize those in the coming two weeks.  But also look for both candidates to try to round up personal endorsements, particularly in areas where they're comparatively weak - West Ashley for Tecklenburg and downtown for Stavrinakis.

Style.  Tecklenburg, known for a calm temperament, didn't face the animosity that grew between the Stavrinakis and Deerin camps during the general campaign.  But now with Deerin out of the way, Stavrinakis likely will turn his guns on Tecklenburg.  But that could backfire - especially since he complained so much about how a Deerin ad linked him to developers.  If Stavrinakis is only positive, he may not get the fuel he needs to attract new support.  If he goes more negative, he may be seen as a hypocrite.

A second choice.  About 30 percent voters didn't cast ballots for Stavrinakis or Tecklenburg.  For either to win, they need to attract some of these voters.  While Deerin so far has said she wouldn't endorse either, it's highly unlikely her supporters would vote for Stavrinakis, who they seem to view as Darth Vader.  But they could also stay home, which could help Stavrinakis in a big way.  Look for lots of outreach to Deerin, Gregorie, Washington and Smith supporters.

At this point, Tecklenburg has the edge because he's more likely to attract new voters.  We continue to believe John Tecklenburg is the right choice for Charleston.  To learn why, read our endorsement.