Valuing the Homes of Harriet the Spy, Stuart Little & Other Children's Book Characters
Excerpt:
It is well known that Eloise lived in The Plaza. But the book was published in 1955, well before Manhattan real estate skyrocketed. So what would her apartment be worth today?
In fact, many children's books have been set in New York City-think Harriet the Spy or Stuart Little. In this day and age of record-setting prices, how much would those fictional characters have to pay to live in their homes today? Who would have seen the most appreciation, Eloise or Lyle Crocodile?
Much detective work (� la Harriet) reveals the residences of a boy-mouse and a anthropomorphized girl dog span various neighborhoods including the Upper East Side, Gramercy Park, and Park Slope. What follows is a survey of six iconic picture books set in New York City and the current valuations of their fictional homes.
My comment: just some fun stuff for you!!
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Poll: Do your listing comparables have any effect on your final opinion of value?
My comments: I have always looked at listings, pendings, expired, etc. to tell me what is happening in the market today. Sales are the past.
Recent articles below in the May issue of the Paid Appraisal Today discuss using listings, particularly in markets that are declining or increasing. Lenders, of course, are way behind. They are just now complaining about low appraisals on purchases and want appraisers to use pending sales. Also, having no closed sales higher than the listing price is ok!!
- Practical tips on qualifying the 1004MC and preparing a Market Conditions Summary - most examples are declining markets
- No man's land & the aggressive real estate market
- How to handle rapidly increasing prices in your market
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The effect of low inventory on statistics and the 1004MC
I was reading the February median sales prices in my small city of 78,000 population recently. In my zip code (94501) there is a wide range of older homes from small to very large with a median price of 905,000 dollars, 11 sales and a 29% increase from the previous month. The other zip code, 94502, has a large planned development of more expensive homes built since 1975, with a higher median sales price than my zip code.
But, the median sales price in Quarter 1 was 700,000 dollars and the percent change from the previous month was -2.8%. Why? There are 3 large townhome developments built in the 1970s, which sell for much less. With more sales of the expensive detached homes, with a median over 1,000,000 dollars, it would have been much higher. The 7 sales must have been mostly these homes as there are no detached homes selling for under about 750,000 dollars.
Zip codes in some nearby cities had 1 to 7 sales in February, resulting in very skewed median prices and percent price changes from the previous month. The percent changes from the previous month were completely crazy as there was so little data.
There was a disclaimer saying that atypical home sales "may alter the averages". Also, the data "reflects sales and price information from approximately 6-8 weeks post closing".
1004MC would be totally inaccurate and unreliable using this data!!
Note: why did I take out $ and put in dollars above? Because this email would have been identified as spam. Spam Blockers Gone Wild!!
In the May issue of the paid Appraisal Today newsletter (see the list of articles above), I wrote about this phenomenon. Ryan Lundquist also contributed one of his blog postings on his market, about 40 miles from where I live, talking about the same problems. I have always used listings, expireds, pendings, etc. to figure out what was happening with the market. Sales are the past. Listings and pendings are the present and future.
WASHINGTON, D.C. (May 4, 2016)
Mortgage applications decreased 3.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 29, 2016.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 6 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 13 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 52.9 percent of total applications from 54.4 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 5.3 percent of total applications.
The FHA share of total applications increased to 13.5 percent from 12.3 percent the week prior. The VA share of total applications decreased to 11.5 percent from 12.2 percent the week prior. The USDA share of total applications decreased to 0.7 percent from 0.8 percent the week prior.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) increased to 3.87 percent from 3.85 percent, with points increasing to 0.36 from 0.35 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $417,000) increased to 3.79 percent from 3.78 percent, with points increasing to 0.31 from 0.30 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA increased to 3.69 percent from 3.66 percent, with points increasing to 0.33 from 0.26 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 3.13 percent from 3.09 percent, with points decreasing to 0.36 from 0.37 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs decreased to 2.91 percent from 3.02 percent, with points increasing to 0.30 from 0.14 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.
The survey covers over 75 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100.
