7:00 p.m. - Information tables available

Congressman Chris Van Hollen will convene a town hall meeting for residents of the 8th Congressional District.   The Congressman will report to residents about the activities of the 113th Congress and the important issues facing the nation. Congressman Van Hollen will respond to questions and comments from the audience.  All residents of the 8th Congressional District are invited.

                            
Experts and informational materials on consumer protection, health and other insurance, tax preparation, and veterans' affairs will be available to attendees. 

Parking is available at the high school. 

Questions?    Please call (301) 424-3501.

 

"Nine eleven should be a reminder," says former Ambassador Dennis Ross, "the Las Vegas rules don't apply! What's going on in the Middle East doesn't stay in the Middle East." As an expert on the subject, he reminded us at the Women's Democratic Club's February luncheon that we cannot stay out of what's going on.

 

The "Arab Spring"

 

To understand the region, Ross says, we need to appreciate the context, adding, "The truth is there never was going to be an Arab Spring." Change does not happen overnight. Instead, "what you see is an awakening" and only in the nonmonarchies in the region.  

 

What did change? For the first time people began to see themselves as citizens, not subjects. The problem, though, is that these countries lack the institutions necessary to create accountability in a democratic government. Strong-man leaders, who saw institutions as a threat, did not let them develop. The result: a vacuum where, rather than the nation, in many instances the tribe, the clan, or the sect became the center of identity.  

 

Egypt the Nation State

 

Singularly, Egypt, though mostly Sunni, has a 5000-year history as a nation state. Mubarak had held on to power both by suppressing institutions and by making his subjects believe in the false choice of him or sharia law. After he left, the Islam-first Muslim Brotherhood crumbled because they ignored the people's national identity. Now, amidst the unrest, the military has focused more on control than on governance. What happens in Egypt, says Ross, affects the whole region. We therefore have a major interest in making sure this does not become a failed state.

 

Saudi Arabia the Monarchy

 

In the monarchies, the upheavals have had a chilling effect, though a stable, legitimate succession has justified royal power. Thus far, oil rich monarchs like the Saudis have used their money to manage the unrest at home and respond to the chaos elsewhere. With a huge stake in the oil market, like us they worry about disruptions and want to see stable prices. They fear Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood and see Syria as a proxy conflict with Iran.

 

Iran and Negotiations

 

Turning to Iran, Ross offered insights into Rohani's surprise victory. Why did the Supreme Leader allow him to win with a run-off-proof 50.4% of the vote when he ran against the Leader's own policies? Because, says Ross, these policies, which have caused isolation and deep sanctions, simply cost too much. Fearing they would be next after our invasion of Iraq, the regime at the time put out feelers, which the Bush Administration rejected. Ross believes we need to respond to those feelers by building the pressure, then allowing Iran a face-saving path out. We want them to lose the breakout nuclear capability; that is, to roll back progress to a point where they would need a long time to turn nuclear capabilities into weapons. We would then gain time to react.

 

According to Ross, no one, here or in Iran, knows where these negotiations will end up, but they will "play out this year." Right now, both sides are game-players sending messages saying "You need this more than we do." Rohani, who represents the more moderate strain of Iranian politics, is still subject to the power of the Supreme Leader.

 

Syrian Slaughter

 

More than 9½ million people have been displaced due to Assad's strategy of starving the opposition and bombing the population even to dissolution. Ross sees no chance of a political process in Syria. A fundamental change in the balance of power would need to take place and the international will does not exist to make that happen.

 

Palestinian-Israeli Conflict

 

Although people have asked "why now" in relation to Kerry's strong efforts to negotiate a peace agreement, Ross believes that now is a good time. After all, with all that is going on, no one in the region is paying attention to the conflict. The players can thus find the political space to make something happen. Moreover, the defeat of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt has weakened Hamas and allowed Abu Mazen to offer concessions he would not have considered before and to make such statements as "we are not going to become a bi-national state."  

 

By April Kerry hopes to create a framework of principles that would allow the two sides to begin negotiating core issues such as security, borders, and Jerusalem. The agreement's parameters are not as ambitious as Clinton's, but they do have "a decent chance," though less than 50-50, of success--better than with Iran. But for it all to work, both leaders have to overcome the heavy weight of their histories.

 

Q and A

 

 

T.E. Lawrence's proposed map, which was rejected, did just that. Now although "we are paying the price for borders that do not make sense," we cannot repeat the past by trying to impose something from without. If the realignment occurs, it must come from within.

                            

Once again, outside groups will not determine policy. The Shalom Achshav (Peace Now) movement in Israel is not popular because of the violence from Gaza; as is said, "The concept of land for peace was never supposed to be land for violence." Barak's concession resulted in the second Intifada. Israel simply does not believe that Abu Mazen can deliver, especially with Hamas in Gaza. Rabin felt that, because of demographics, Israel had to get out of the territories to maintain a Jewish state. He built the separation barrier because, unlike Gaza, the West Bank is close to population areas.

Ross says he has "never been a big fan of unilateralism." Witness the Gaza withdrawal. Only a coordinated plan such as the one Kerry is trying to broker will succeed. He would like to involve Europe, but right now Europe is not focused on peace, but on efforts to attack Israel's legitimacy. We, of course, cannot support that. When the Gaza withdrawal presented Hamas with a challenge to build a society, they turned instead to rockets. On the positive side, Abu Mazen, unlike Arafat, is committed to nonviolence.

 

3.  Who is calling the shots in Syria?

Assad. Says Ross, "The truth is he's a war criminal backed by Russia and Iran" who has turned the uprisings against him into a sectarian conflict to maintain power. Saudi Arabia needs to stand up to Russia, which is trying to protect its naval facility and fears what might replace Assad. Ross presented the possibility that Syria may split in two with Assad in the West and the Islamists in the East. In the end, says Ross, "sooner or later we will have to do more."  

 

4.  Will Hagel's reduction of our military forces affect our ability in the Middle East?  

 

We have 40,000 troops on the ground now. But we are rethinking our doctrine dictating that we must have the ability to fight two ground wars at once. Although we will keep some infrastructure, we will be moving over time towards defense strategies that focus on such areas as Special Operations, cyber capabilities, and small forces for quick response.

 

5.  Why is Israel so resistant to a diplomatic solution in Iran?  

 

Netanyahu is not opposed to diplomacy per se, but he fears an Iran that has fast nuclear capability. He is worried that he will be obliged to use force. He also does not want to show flexibility as a starting, rather than as an end, point. In the end he will probably accept an agreement as long as it is limited and includes inspection safeguards. Everyone in the Middle East has the same concern-that we will accept anything just to get an agreement.

Members Enjoying Luncheon

 

     

Carmella Cowgill Introducing Dennis Ross