What is the industry doing with this bonanza?
First, let me reflect on what I have seen in the past. In 1982, the prime interest rate topped 21%. During my career, energy costs have always been an issue (I graduated from college in 1973 and the first energy crisis was that fall).
In the old days, say the 1970's or the 1980's, if the conditions of today existed, the industry would be looking only at interest rates and energy prices and build with abandon, assuming the demand would eventually keep up with what they built.
The internet and the concomitant damage it caused to printing & writing and newsprint markets taught the industry that markets do not always grow.
In corrugated containers, the reduction in basis weights brought about by modern strength measuring methods, has taught that sector that tons are not everything--square footage consumption can grow drastically with the result that tons grow modestly.
In tissue, the breakthroughs in technology of the 1970's and 1980's brought on patents that have now run their course, and anyone can make tissue of any physical property design they choose. As testimony to this, there is now a conference called "Tissue World"--something that would have been unheard of in the days of high performance tissue competition.
So, where to go with cheap money and energy?
My opinion is that cheap money should be employed in consortia with other industries to find ways to take the labor out of maintenance. The big labor bill these days is not operators, it is maintenance personnel. There are opportunities here.
In energy, keep converting to cheaper forms, but watch getting locked into what seems to be cheap this month. My years of experience have shown the cheap energy of today just may be the expensive energy of tomorrow.
