Participating as industry experts in pulp and paper financing and M & A deals around the world for over two decades, we continue to see the same mistakes made over and over. This newsletter is designed to help you avoid costly mistakes we have seen others make. We will be giving you one or two points each month to help improve your performance.
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The collapse of OPEC...
Get out your calculators and spreadsheets
The drop in oil prices and the apparent collapse of OPEC haven't begun to be incorporated into company financial prognostications yet.
The first obvious reason the changing energy scene remains unaccounted for is that most companies probably are taking a wait and see attitude. Is OPEC really dead? It certainly would be a stunning development after the last forty years of oil price domination by this cartel.
The second reason this has not been calculated into the going-forward mix is that the ramifications are so complex that no one could possibly discern how they will play out.
The first oil price spike occurred in the fall after I graduated from college. Gas stations were closed for lack of product. Transportation was completely upset. The nationwide 55-mph speed limit was introduced. Airlines started changing their livery to only a minor amount of paint and a lot of bare aluminum to save fuel. Crazy things were happening.
A shortage of fuel and escalating prices caused immediate dislocations in the economy. I suspect that on the way down operational changes which will exploit cheaper energy will come more slowly.
However, if OPEC is really dead and we are truly in for a long period of low energy prices, it is certain that the forecasts you have been given for 2015 will bear little resemblance to reality a year from now.
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If you have a casual question or a major deal, call me on my personal cell phone - 404-822-3412 or email me at jthompson@taii.com. We are here to help.
Sincerely,
Jim Thompson, CEO Talo Analytic International, Inc. |