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Strategic & Financial Arguments(TM)
for the pulp and paper industry worldwide

November 2014

Participating as industry experts in pulp and paper financing and M & A deals around the world  for over two decades, we continue to see the same mistakes made over and over.  This newsletter is designed to help you avoid costly mistakes we have seen others make.  We will be giving you one or two points each month to help improve your performance.
 
Has the stock market become more of a political tool than a true measure of a going concern's worth?
 
We remain glad we do not have your job...

 

Two months ago in this newsletter we talked about a bubble affecting not only pulp and paper stocks but all stocks.  Last month we bragged about correctly predicting it.

Now we sit here after the US election wondering what comes next, all the while noticing that stocks have recovered from their lows of last month.

We have never set out to be prognosticators, and three consecutive columns that seem to talk about prognostication hopefully will not label us.

What has crossed our thought processes more strongly than ever before, however, is that the stock market has become a tool of the politicians. Does it really measure worth any longer?  Of course, it was always a measure of worth relative to something else (the bond market for instance), but is it now such a manipulated animal that stock prices mean little in terms of assessing the value of a single entity?  

In our own industry, we have tasted a bit of this. There was the allowance for burning black liquor, truly an artificial earnings platform made real only by law.  Now there is the talk of Master Limited Partnerships or MLPs.  

With an opposition party now in control of Congress, will the Federal Reserve be brought to account, thus exposing what Quantitative Easing has done (for) (to) stock prices?

Paper Industry Executives today certainly are buffeted by many winds not of their choosing.  It will be extremely interesting to see what 2015 brings.

If you have a casual question or a major deal, call me on my personal cell phone - 404-822-3412 or email me at [email protected]. We are here to help.

 

Sincerely,

 


Jim Thompson, CEO
Talo Analytic International, Inc.
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