Yesterday FTI Consulting, Inc. released its 2012 Retail Report. The report, titled "A Real Cliffhanger," analyzes the state of the retail sector in the United States and finds resilience in consumer spending on goods despite ongoing global economic uncertainty and threats posed by the impending fiscal cliff. Consumer confidence is approximately 25 percent higher entering the 2012 holiday shopping season than it was a year ago. Included among the Retail Report's highlights are the following:
- U.S. Holiday Spending Will Increase 4.5 Percent: The report forecasts a 4.5 percent increase in U.S. holiday spending for 2012 and a growing dominance of online sales during the season. FTI Consulting's industry experts expect fewer instances of extreme price discounts persisting throughout the season this year, a trend that accounted for a substantial portion of 2011's 6.2 percent holiday spending increase, as the bottom line for many large chains did not benefit from such aggressive pricing strategies.
- Online Retail Sales Will Grow by 13.5 Percent in 2013: The online channel has bounced back sharply from the recession and has consistently grown at about three times the rate of store-based sales.
- Some Retail Sectors Still Have a Way to Go: FTI Consulting estimates that if the economic recovery continues at its current pace, it will have taken between five and seven years for sales in many non-essential product categories to reach their pre-recession levels.
- Department Stores - a Mixed Bag:Department stores have been more challenged than any other store category to stay competitive in today's cutthroat retail environment. While several department stores still are struggling, there have been enough turnarounds and encouraging stories to demonstrate that the department store can continue to be a vibrant shopping venue and that the right mix of pricing, service, and selection can produce a winner, even if it's not a luxury chain.
- Online Channel Also Poses a Threat to Retail Real Estate: As the online channel continues to alter the way consumers shop and retail executives approach selling merchandise, a less obvious casualty is retail real estate. The percentage of retail sales taking place in brick-and-mortar stores has been declining at an accelerating rate since 2001 - a period that coincides with the proliferation of online selling. The traditional practice of opening new stores aggressively and tolerating underperforming ones continues to be altered by the success of online selling.
The full report is available at www.fticonsulting.com/ftiretailreport2012. Additional information can also be found at www.fticonsulting.com.