|
|
|
Capitol Notes
Wisconsin Political and Legislative Update
|
TO: Clients/Friends of Capitol Consultants, Inc./Wimmer & Company, S.C.
FROM: Tony Langenohl
Capitol Consultants, Inc.
& Wimmer Company, S.C.
DATE: November 2, 2012
SUBJECT: Wisconsin Election Preview
|
Know someone that would like to receive our Weekly Updates, please feel free to forward this e-mail and have them join our subscriber list below.
|
Election Contest
Since we got such great response from the Primary Election contest, we thought we would do it again, and throw a bigger prize out there, a new mini iPad.
The rules: (1) Must be a client or friend of Capitol Consultants, Inc. or Wimmer & Company, or a member of one of the associations that is a client. Sorry no general public that grabs this on Twitter or Facebook. (2) Email your answers to these questions to me (tony.langenohl@capitolconsultants.net) by 5:00 p.m. WI Time on Tuesday, November 6th. That's it!
The questions that need to be answered:
1. Who is elected President: _________________ (1 pt) 2. President (winner and percentage in Wisconsin) (3 pts) Obama ____% Romney ____% 3. US Senate (winner and percentage) (3pts) Baldwin ____% Thompson ____% 4. Control of State Senate (out of 33 Senators, the seat vacated by Sen. Zipperer does not have its general election until December, but will be counted as a GOP seat, so assume 33 seats total in your split of the Senate make-up) (1 pt)
- # of DEM seats ____
- # of GOP seats _____
5. Control of State Assembly (out of 99 members) (1 pt) - # of DEM seats _____
- # of GOP seats ______
Our goal is to keep this fun and social, so just use whole numbers, no 1/10th of a %, and if there is a tie, we'll throw the names in a hat and pick a winner of the iPad, but give everyone bragging rights. Back to the table of contents
|
Election Preview- Wisconsin State Assembly
Republicans came out of the 2010 Elections with a 60 Republican, 38 Democrat and 1 Independent majority. Democrats captured 1 seat in a Special Election to fill the vacancy by former Representative Mike Huebsch (R-West Salem), who left the Assembly after winning re-election to take an appointment as Secretary of the Department of Administration from Governor Scott Walker. So going into next Tuesday's election, Republicans will be defending a 59-38-1 majority There are approximately 17 Assembly seats that are "competitive" where the historic partisan performance of the Assembly district or the performance of the candidate, puts the seat in play. By the sheer number of Republicans in the Assembly, their caucus is playing more defense this election cycle than offense. We have divided the competitiveness of the races into three tiers,
In the descriptions of the race below we use two measures of past performance to illustrate the competitiveness of the seat, (1) the Avg. Democratic or Republican performance in that district/how top of the ticket candidates on average perform in the district and (2) whether Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett or Governor Scott Walker won the seat in the June 2012 recall election. Governor Walker won 66 of 99 Assembly seats in the June election. There are active links to all the candidates websites below as well.
TIER 143rd Assembly District: Redistricting has placed two incumbent lawmakers in the same district, Democratic Representative Andy Jorgensen (D-Fort Atkinson) and Republican Representative Evan Wynn (R-Whitewater). Mayor Barrett won this seat in the June recall election and the seat has an average Democratic performance of 56.9%.
44th Assembly District: Freshman Republican Joe Knilans (R-Janesville), who defeated former Assembly Speaker Mike Sheridan (D-Janesville) in 2010, is being challenged by Democrat Deb Koslte,a medical technologist with Mercy Health Systems. The 44th Assembly District has an average Democratic performance of 62.8% and Mayor Barrett won the seat in the June recall election.
51st Assembly District: Freshman Republican Representative Howard Marklein (R-Spring Green) is being challenged by Mineral Point Democrat Maureen "Mo" May-Grimm(D-Mineral Point). Representative Marklein is a CPA in public accounting and May-Grimm is a former project manager for IBM. Governor Scott Walker won the district in the recall
but the district has an average Democratic performance of 53.8%.
Freshman Republican Representative Kathy Bernier (R-Chippewa Falls) is being challenged by Democrat Judy Smriga(D-Thorp). In 2010, Rep. Bernier won election to her seat by a slim 93 vote margin. Prior to her election, Rep. Bernier served as the Village Trustee for the Village of Lake Hallie. Smriga is a school teacher in Thorp. Governor Walker won the seat in the recall election.
The seat has an average Democratic performance of of 50.6%.
25th Assembly District: In the race to fill the vacancy left by Democrat turned Independent Representative Bob Ziegelbauer (I-Manitowoc), Republican Paul Tittl (R-Manitowoc) is facing Democrat Jim Brey (D-Manitowoc). Governor Walker won the seat in the June recall election and the seat has an average Republican performance of 53.3%. 35th Assembly District: This is an open seat race for the seat that Representative Tom Tiffany (R-Rhinelander) holds. Rep. Tiffany is running for the State Senate. Republican Mary Czaja (R-Irma), Democrat Kevin Koth (D-Tomahawk) and Independent Patrick Tjugum (I-Tomahawk) are facing each other at the ballot box on Nov. 6th. Czaja owns a small independent insurance business, Koth is a semi chemical operator at the Packaging Corporation of America and Tjugum currently works at the Louisiana Pacific Corporation Tomahawk Mill. Governor Walker won the seat in the June recall election but the seat has an average Democratic performance of 53%. 70th Assembly District: Milladore Democratic Representative Amy Sue Vruwkink (D-Milladore), who was first elected in 2002, is being challenged by Sparta Republican Nancy Vandermeer (R-Sparta). Vruwink is a full-time legislator and former aide to former Congressman Dave Obey (D-Wausau). VanderMeer runs her family's auto dealership in Tomah. Governor Walker won the district in the recall election and the district has an average Republican performance of 50.7%. 72nd Assembly District: Freshman Republican Scott Krug (R-Wisconsin Rapids) is being challenged by Wisconsin Rapids Democrat Justin Pluess (D-Wisconsin Rapids). Krug is a former law enforcement professional and Pluess is a fourth-generation fire fighter. Governor Walker won the district during the recall election, but the seat has an average Democratic performance of 51.5%. 75th Assembly District: Freshman Republican Representative Roger Rivard (R-Rice Lake) is being challenged by Democrat Stephen Smith (D-Shell Lake). Smith is an owner of Rainbow Home Center, an Ace Hardware store in Rice Lake. Rivard is a realtor. Governor Walker won the seat in his recall election and the seat has an average Republican performance of 52.2%. 85th Assembly District: The 85th Assembly District is currently represented by Rep. Donna Seidel (D-Wausau) who gave up for re-election to her seat to challenge Sen. Pam Galloway (R-Wausau) in her recall election, but ended up facing and losing to then Representative and now State Senator Jerry Petrowski (R-Marathon). Three candidates are vying to replace Rep. Seidel; Democrat Mandy Wright (D-Wausau), a middle school teacher and soccer coach, Republican Pat Snyder (R-Wausau), a radio talk show host for WSAU in Wausau, and Libertarian Jim Maas (L-Rothschild), a former UW Stevens Point library employee. Governor Walker won this seat in his recall election, but it has an average Democratic performance of 51.6%. 93rd Assembly District: This is a rematch of the 2010 election when now incumbent Freshman Representative Warren Petryk (R-Eleva) is being challenged by former incumbent Democrat Representative Jeff Smith (D-Eau Claire). Petryk defeated Smith by 74 votes in 2010. Governor Walker won the district in his recall election and the seat has an average Republican performance of 51.1%. TIER 3: Rather than go into too much detail on the lower tier races, we have just identified them and included links to the campaign websites.
Back to the table of contents
|
Election Preview- State Senate
In the State Senate, Republicans started the session with a 19-14 majority, but after three sets of recall elections, lost control of the State Senate (after the session concluded) and are going into the 2012 elections with 15-17-1 vacant minority. The one vacant seat is because of the resignation of Sen. Rich Zipperer (R-Pewaukee) who resigned his seat in August to take the position of Governor Walker's Deputy Chief of Staff and General Counsel. The Republican Primary, which will determine who his replacement is, is scheduled for the November 6th Election Day.
There are three state senate seats that will determine which will likely determine which party will control the State Senate next session:
12th Senate District (NE Wisconsin): Sen. Jim Holperin (D-Conover), who is the only legislator in the country to survive two recall elections (one as a member of the State Assembly in the early 90's and one last year as a state senator) decided to not seek re-election this year. There are three candidates vying to replace Sen. Holperin; Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Hazelhurst), Susan Somers (D-Phelps) and Paul Ehlers (L-Rhinelander). The 12th Senate District has an 53% average GOP performance.
18th Senate District (Oshkosh area): The 18th Senate District is one of two seats last year that were previously Republican-held and were captured by Democrat challengers in the 2011 recall elections. Now Sen. Jessica King (D-Oshkosh) captured the seat last year by defeating incumbent Sen. Randy Hopper (R-Fond du Lac ). Sen. King is being challenged by production Brenner Tank LLC Aluminum production manager Rick Gudex (R-Fond du Lac). The 18th Senate District has an average GOP performance of 54%.
30th Senate District (Green Bay):
Sen. Dave Hansen (D-Green Bay), who easily survived a recall challenge in 2011, is being challenged by Republican John Macco (R-De Pere). Macco is president of Macco Financial Group, a financial planning business. Sen. Hansen was first elected to the State Senate in 2000, and has been re-elected since. The 30th Senate District has a 51% average Democratic performance.
Back to the table of contents
|
|
Election Preview- Presidential Race
Four years ago President Barack Obama won Wisconsin by the largest margin of any presidential candidate in 40 years (Johnson received 62% of the voter in 1964), winning 60 of the state's 72 counties, and defeating US Sen. John McCain by over 400,000 votes and garnering 14% more of the vote. Wisconsin was so securely wrapped up by President Obama in 2008, he did not visit the state during the last 30 days of the campaign ( ). The president is scheduled to be here three times during the last 5 days of the 2012 campaign. Former Governor Romney was scheduled to be in Wisconsin at least once (Friday) prior to the end of the campaign.
In 2004, when President Bush was running for re-election, after losing WI by 5,000 votes in 2000, he visited the state twice in the last week of the campaign ( ) and US Senator John Kerry was in Wisconsin six of the last 12 days of the campaign.
If Wisconsin is going to be more like 2004 as far as competitiveness for the presidential race, here are some points of note from the 2004 and 2008 campaigns:
- In 2008 Obama received 180,970 more votes than John Kerry did in 2004.
- In 2008 McCain underperformed President Bush's 2004 vote total by 219,939 votes.
- Turnout in 2008 in Wisconsin was down by 31,354 voters compared to 2004. In 2004 73.82% of eligible voters cast ballots, in 2008 Wisconsin ranked 2nd nationally for voter turnout (behind MN) with a 70.89% turnout.
- In the last set of polls released in 2008, Obama was leading McCain by 11% in Wisconsin, in 2004 Kerry was leading Bush by 3% in the last publicly released polls.
Latest Polling: Looking at the latest, and likely last round of polls before election day: - Wenzel Strategies (R-Citizens United)
- President Obama 49% | Governor Romney 47% (Obama +2)
- PPP Polling (D-Health Care for American Now)
- President Obama 51% | Governor Romney 46% (Obama +5)
- Rasmussen
- President Obama 49% | Governor Romney 49%
- NBC/WSJ/Marist
- President Obama 49% | Governor Romney 46% (Obama +3%)
Pollster Estimate: The Pollster estimate has remained largely static over the last two weeks, with Pres. Obama hovering right around the 50% mark and Governor Romney three to four points behind. Below is the current estimate on their chart. Real Clear Politics Average:
Real Clear Politics has President Obama up 5% on their three poll average for the State of Wisconsin.
Link to RCP site
NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL POLLING:
The last week of polling has resulted in national polls that show the race well within the margin of error with either President Obama or Governor Romney leading by 1 point or tied with one another.
- President Obama 47.4%
- Governor Romney 47.1%
Gallup Presidential Job Approval
Gallup's Daily Presidential Job Approval is based on a three day rolling average. Last week, pre-debate (October 1st-3rd), President Obama hit his 52-week high on the Job Approval tracking poll of 54%. His all-time high was 69% (Jan. 22-24, 2009) and all-time low was almost a year ago at 38% (October 15th-17th, 2011), which was also his 52-week low. This week he is down -2%, to 52%. His job disapproval is up 1% over last week at 43%, but still lower than it has been over in the preceding month.
- President Obama Job Approval: 51.0%
- President Obama Job Disapproval: 44.0%
|
Comparing President Obama's Job Approval to the last five presidents at this point in their re-election campaign. Bold equals successfully re-elected/italics defeated:
- President Obama 51%
- President GW Bush 48%
- President Clinton 54%
- President G HW Bush 43%
- President Reagan 58%
- President Carter 31%
The Electoral College (Race to 270):
This week the electoral map got a little bluer according to battle ground state polling.
- RealClearPolitics.com current race projection Wisconsin remains a toss-up state in the RCP map, only Missouri moved in the last week towards Romney.
- Obama-201 electoral votes (no change)
- Romney-191 electoral votes (+10)
- Toss-Up- 146 electoral votes (12 states incl. CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NH, PA, WI, NC & VA)
- NY Times current race projection The NY Times map differs with MI, PA and NV in the Obama column and NC in the Romney column.
- Obama- 243 electoral votes
- Romney- 206 electoral votes
- Toss-Up- 89 electoral votes (7 states incl. WI)
Market Indicator Website:
- Intrade Over the last two weeks, very little movement on Intrade.
- President Obama: President Obama remains at 66.9% for the 2nd week in a row.
- Governor Romney: While Gov. Romney also remains steady at 33.2%%.
Links:
|
|
Election Preview- US Senate
CONTROL OF THE US SENATE
Currently Democrats control the US Senate with a 51 Democrats to 47 Republicans majority and two independents who caucus with Democrats, giving Democrats a 53-seat majority. There are 33 Senate races on the ballot this cycle, Democrats are defending 23 of them to 10 for Republicans.
- RealClearPolitics.com 46 DEM (no change) - 43 GOP(no change)- RCP's rankings of the US Senate race have remained relatively stagnant with 11 seats ranked as "toss ups:" AZ, CT, IN, MA, MO, MT, ND, NV, OH, VA and WI.
- NY Times (47 DEM- 45 GOP (-1 GOP))- The NY Times has changed the rankings this week moving Indiana from lean GOP to Toss-Up. The NY Times identify Maine, Massachusetts, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, Virginia and Wisconsin.
- Cook Political Report (47 DEM-43 GOP) No change in the Cook Report rankings, they continue to have 10 seats as Toss-Ups: AZ, CT, IN, MA, MO, MT, ND, NV, VA and WI.
#WISEN POLL WATCH: Lots of new polls in the WI US Senate race in the last week, all showing a continued tight race. - Wenzel Strategies (R-Citizens United)
- Baldwin 45% | Thompson 47% (Thompson +2%)
- Rasmussen
- Baldwin 48% | Thompson 48% (Tied)
- NBC/WSJ/Marist
- Baldwin 48% | Thompson 47% (Baldwin +1%)
Pollster Estimate: The Pollster estimate has the race at 47.1% for Baldwin and 46.1% for Thompson, a tightening of 3 points over the last week of polling. Link to Pollster site. Real Clear Politics Estimate: The Real Clear Politics average of the last four polls has the race currently at +0.5% for Baldwin. Link to RCP site. |
Election Preview- US House of Representatives
The current make up of the US House of Representatives is 241 Republicans and 194 Democrats. A party needs 218 seats to control the House. Both Real Clear Politics and the NY Times are projecting that Republicans will maintain control of the House after the November 6th election. Currently the NY Times has 227 seats labelled as solid or leaning Republican and 183 seats as solid or leaning Democrat, with 25 toss-up seats. Real Clear Politics has 224 seats as solid, likely Republican or leans GOP versus 178 seats for the Democrats. WI 7th and 8th:There were only two seats that were actively challenged this election by either party in the state; the WI-7th, represented by freshman Congressman Sean Duffy (R-Wausau) and freshman Congressman Reid Ribble (R-Appleton). Both congressmen captured seats that were previously held by Democrats in 2010. Cong. Duffy is being challenged by former State Senator Pat Kreitlow (D-Eau Claire) and Cong. Ribble is being challenged by former Governor Doyle Commerce aide Jamie Wall (D-Green Bay). Neither site has either district in the toss up category. Here is how they are ranked going into the election on Tuesday. WI 7th (NW WI):
- RCP: Leans GOP
- NY Times: Leaning Republican
WI 8th (NE WI): - RCP: Likely GOP
- NY Times: Leaning Republican
Back to the table of contents
|
|
Stay Connected on what's going on politically throughout the week
Follow us on Twitter
Like us on Facebook
Follow us on tumblr
|
|
|
|
|
|
