|
|
|
Capitol Notes
Wisconsin Political and Legislative Update
|
TO: Clients/Friends of Capitol Consultants, Inc./Wimmer & Company, S.C.
FROM: Tony Langenohl
Capitol Consultants, Inc.
& Wimmer Company, S.C.
DATE: October 12th, 2012
SUBJECT: Weekly Political & Legislative Update
|
Know someone that would like to receive our Weekly Updates, please feel free to forward this e-mail and have them join our subscriber list below.
|
Presidential Race Update
Following up on a visit by President Barack Obama to Madison last week, Vice President Joe Biden is in La Crosse today, and Republican Vice Presidential nominee Paul Ryan will be in Milwaukee on Sunday for a fundraiser for Governor Thompson's US Senate campaign and a rally in Waukesha on Monday. Coverage of both events will be in next week's update.
Congressman Ryan was also in Wisconsin last weekend and set a presidential fundraising record for Wisconsin, raising $2.8 million, more than any previous presidential campaign has raised at one event in Wisconsin.
WISCONSIN PRESIDENTIAL POLLING
PRE-DEBATE
Pre-the first presidential debate, on Wednesday of last week, the Marquette University Law School released its most recent poll on the state of the presidential race in Wisconsin. The survey was conducted September 27th-September 30th. The most recent survey finds President Obama leading Governor Romney 53 percent to 42 percent, plus 11 percent. In their mid-September survey, MU had the President leading Governor Romney by 14 percent, 54 percent to 40 percent. Complete results can be found here.
POST-DEBATE
Post the October 3rd Presidential debate, three separate Wisconsin polls show the race tightening: - Public Policy Polling (PPP)
- President Obama 49% | Governor Romney 47% (Obama +2)
- Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS
- President Obama 50% | Governor Romney 47% (Obama +3)
- Rasmussen
- President Obama 51% | Governor Romney 49% (Obama +2)
Pollster Estimate: For the two previous weeks, President Obama was enjoying his longest streak of being above 50% in the Pollster estimate, since he was above 50% for three straight months (Feb 1st, 2012 to March 31st, 2012), but has dropped 2% in the last week, dropping below 50% to 49.4%. Governor Romney gained his largest ground since becoming the nominee, and is now at the highest point he has been on the Pollster estimate during the entire race at 46%. Real Clear Politics Average:
Real Clear Politics has President Obama up 2.3% on their three poll average for the State of Wisconsin.
Link to RCP site After remaining relatively stable over the last two weeks, national poll tracking has President Obama and Governor Romney essentially tied. According to the Pollster estimate, President Obama dropped 1.8% to 47% and Governor Romney gained 2.3% to 46.8%.
- President Obama 47% (-1.8%)
- Governor Romney 46.8% (+2.3%)
Gallup Presidential Job Approval
Gallup's Daily Presidential Job Approval is based on a three day rolling average. Last week, pre-debate (October 1st-3rd), President Obama hit his 52-week high on the Job Approval tracking poll of 54%. His all-time high was 69% (Jan. 22-24, 2009) and all-time low was almost a year ago at 38% (October 15th-17th, 2011), which was also his 52-week low. This week he is down -2%, to 52%. His job disapproval is up 1% over last week at 43%, but still lower than it has been over in the preceding month.
- President Obama Job Approval: 52.0% (-2%)
- President Obama Job Disapproval: 43.0% (+1%)
|
Comparing President Obama's Job Approval to the last five presidents at this point in their re-election campaign. Bold equals successfully re-elected/italics defeated:
- President Obama 52%
- President GW Bush 50%
- President Clinton 58%
- President G HW Bush 31%
- President Reagan 58%
- President Carter 34%
The Electoral College (Race to 270): This week the electoral map got a little bluer according to battle ground state polling.
- RealClearPolitics.com current race projection RCP had a big swing this week in their electoral map. After having President Obama knocking on the door of 270 electoral votes, with 269, they move 68 electoral votes from "Lean Obama" to "Toss Up." Moving to Toss-Up are Ohio (18), Wisconsin (10), Pennsylvania (20), New Hampshire (4) and Michigan (16).
- Obama-201 electoral votes (-68)
- Romney-181 electoral votes (no change)
- Toss-Up- 156 electoral votes (12 states incl. CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NH, PA, WI, MO, NC & VA)
- NY Times current race projection For four weeks in a row, no change in the NY Times electoral map.
- Obama- 237 electoral votes
- Romney- 191 electoral votes
- Toss-Up- 110 electoral votes (9 states incl. WI)
Market Indicator Website:
- Intrade For two Fridays in a row, President Obama's chance of re-election has dropped on Intrade, the first downward movement since September, however the President remains well above 50% and the change this Friday is considerably less than last Friday and 22.5% still separates Pres. Obama and Governor Romney.
- President Obama: Last week the President dropped for the first time on Intrade since early September dropping by -12.3%
from 78.6% chance of re-election to 66.5%. This week the drop was 3.4% from 66.5% to 63.1%.
- Governor Romney: Romney's chance of winning increased by +12%
last week from 21.6% to 33.6% this week, his first uptick since early September. He made an additional modest gain this week to 37%, +3.4%, but still below 40%, with 22.5% separating the two candidates.
Links: |
|
US Senate Race Update
CONTROL OF THE US SENATE
Currently Democrats control the US Senate with a 51 Democrats to 47 Republicans majority and two independents who caucus with Democrats, giving Democrats a 53-seat majority. There are 33 Senate races on the ballot this cycle, Democrats are defending 23 of them to 10 for Republicans.
- RealClearPolitics.com (46 DEM (-2)- 43 GOP(no change)- This week RCP has Missouri (McCaskill v. Akin) moving from "Lean Democrat" to Toss-Up and Ohio (Brown v. Mande) moving from "Lean Democrat" to Toss-Up. RCP ranks 11 seats now as "toss ups:" AZ, CT, IN, MA, MO, MT, ND, NV, OH, VA and WI.
- NY Times (47 DEM- 46 GOP)- No change in the NY Times rankings this week. The NY Times identify Maine, Massachusetts, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, Virginia and Wisconsin.
- Cook Political Report (47 DEM-43 GOP) In the last week the Cook Political Report, a new site to our tracking, noted several changes to their tracking, the first major changes on their report since early September. Cook has Hawaii moving from "Toss-Up" to Lean Democrat (currently a D seat), Arizona moving from Lean R to "Toss-Up" (currently a R seat), Michigan from "Lean D" to "Likely D" (currently a D seat) and Pennsylvania from "Likely D" to "Lean D" (currently a D seat). Cook ranks the following seats as Toss-Ups: AZ, CT, IN, MA, MO, MT, ND, NV, VA and WI
#WISEN POLL WATCH: As with the Presidential race, a flurry of new polls released in the WI US Senate race in the last week, all showing a continued tight race. - Rasmussen (10/9)
- Baldwin 51% | Thompson 47% (Baldwin +4%)
- Quinnipiac/NY Times/CBS (10/4-9)
- Baldwin 48% | Thompson 46% (Baldwin +2%)
- PPP (10/4-6)
- Baldwin 49% | Thompson 46% (Baldwin +3%)
Pollster Estimate: The Pollster estimate has the race at 49.4% for Baldwin and 45% for Thompson, +4.4% for Baldwin, relatively unchanged from last week. Link to Pollster site. Real Clear Politics Estimate: The Real Clear Politics average of the last three polls has the race currently at +3% for Baldwin. Link to RCP site. Debate schedule: The second debate will be Oct. 18 in Wausau and is sponsored the Journal Sentinel, Wisconsin Public Television, Wisconsin Public Radio and WTMJ-TV (Channel 4). - The third debate will be at the Marquette University Law School and is sponsored by the law school and WISN-TV (Channel 12) and will be on Oct. 26th.
AD WATCH Over the last two weeks, we have seen a tremendous uptick in the amount of advertising in the US Senate race. Several new groups have entered the race for and against the two candidates. AFSCME People "Do Away With" AFSCME's Political Action Committee released an ad critical of Thompson on Medicaid and Medicare.  | | AFSCME PEOPLE WI Senate Independent Expenditure "Do Away With" TV Spot |
Tommy for Wisconsin The Thompson campaign released three ads in the last two weeks critical of Congresswoman Baldwin's congressional record and charging that Congresswoman Baldwin is lying about Thompson's record and is "too extreme for Wisconsin."  | | Lying |
 | | EXTREME |
Tammy Baldwin for Senate The Baldwin campaign released two news ad touting the Congresswoman's support and authorship of the "Buffet Rule" as well as tuition loan programs and critical of Governor Thompson's opposition to the Buffet Rule.  | | Tammy Baldwin TV Ad: "Priorities" |
 | | Rules -- Tammy Baldwin for Senate |
Emily's List/Women Vote Emily's List, through their Political Action Committee "Women Vote!" released a new ad this week called "Wallet." The ad targets Gov. Thompson for his "ties to lobbying firms."  | | Wisconsin WOMEN VOTE!: Wallet |
Crossroads GPS The conservative group Crossroads GPS released new ads called "Extreme Takeover" and "Stamp" that targets Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin for her supporting "a government takeover of health care" and a "extreme tax and spend agenda."  | | Crossroads GPS: "Extreme Takeover" WI |
 | | Crossroads GPS: "Stamp" WI |
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee This week the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released a pair of ads attacking Governor Thompson for what they say is his plan to "gut Medicare" and shipping jobs over seas.  | | Tommy Thompson's Gets Rich While His Special Interest Clients Send American Jobs Overseas |
 | | Tommy Thompson isn't thinking about you |
National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee The National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee released a new ad called "Difference" this week criticizing Baldwin on her voting record on tax increases and for wanting to go "further than Obama" on government take over of health care.  | | Difference |
Emergency Committee for Israel The Emergency Committee for Israel has an ad up critical of Cong. Baldwin's position on foreign policy issues, especially as it relates to Israel.  | | Tammy Baldwin's Extremism |
YouTube Channels: In case we miss an ad or you want to check-out videos from the campaign trails, below please find links to all of the major candidates YouTube channels: |
Around the Capitol
Competitive Wisconsin releases major new workforce development study
Competitive Wisconsin, Inc. (CWI), a nonpartisan public policy organization consisting of business, labor, education and agriculture leaders in Wisconsin, released the results of a year-long examination of the state's job skills challenges and opportunities. Prompted by growing concerns about existing skills gaps and the effects an aging workforce will have on employer ability to meet future needs.
BE BOLD 2: Growing Wisconsin's Talent Pool contains eight operational recommendations targeted at achieving these strategic goals:
- Focus strategic management by replacing the Governor's Council on Workforce Investment and the Governor's Council on Workforce and College Readiness with a new Governor's Talent Development and Acquisition Council (Talent Council).
- Provide the Talent Council oversight of a $100-million Talent Development Fund to enhance the ability of Wisconsin workers, employers, educators, trainers, economic development professionals and communities to respond to supply and demand changes in critical skill clusters.
- Develop a comprehensive talent supply and demand projection for Wisconsin that examines the skills required by Wisconsin's employer groups.
- Develop the most comprehensive real-time workforce/talent data warehouse in the nation.
- Develop a mobile application that provides job and career information on demand to everyone.
- Leverage real-time data, innovation and educational and training best practices to maximize citizen benefit from Wisconsin's world-class education and training systems, empowering citizens to engage in lifelong learning that enhances employability and employment security.
- Support internships and experiential learning in targeted skill sets by enabling youth to enter the world of work by encouraging employers to align internships, apprenticeships and applied learning programs with the skill clusters roadmap.
- Alert employers and workers to Wisconsin's ability to supply job creators in the United States and worldwide with the best, rightly-skilled talent in the world.
The complete Be Bold 2 report can be found here.
John Doe Investigation
Kelly Rindfleisch, a former aide to then-County Executive Scott Walker, plead guilty on Thursday to a single felony count of misconduct in public office. Link to the revised offer of settlement from the Milwaukee District Attorney's Office.
Back to the table of contents
|
|
Calendar of Events for Week of October 15th-19th:
- GOP Events are in RED
- DEM Events are in BLUE
Monday, October 15th
Fundraiser for 86th AD candidate John Spiros
5 p.m. Home of Tom Vandehey, 118 Windtree Drive, Wausau. With Special Guest Co-chair of WI Joint Finance Committee Representative Robin Vos Host Donation: $250.00 Please make Checks Payable to: Spiros for Assembly 1406 East Fillmore Marshfield, WI 54449 For questions or to RSVP, please e-mail campaignforspiros@yahoo.com or call 608-738-8446. Fundraiser for Rep. Dale Kooyenga
5 p.m. Pistol Pete's, 16755 W. Lisbon Road, Brookfield. Special Guest Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch Suggested donation: $30 Host level donation: $100 Contact Us Today In Order to Be on the Host List. Kooyenga campaigns are family friendly and children are welcome to attend. Food and appetizers provided. RSVP Appreciated, but not required RSVP to rgeary2013@gmail.com If You Cannot Attend, Contributions are Greatly Appreciated, http://dalekooyenga.com/contribute.html Visit www.dalekooyenga.com for more information
Tuesday, October 16th
Meet and support Melissa Sargent for Assembly 4:30 p.m.
Maple Bluff Country Club,
500 Kensington Drive,
Madison.
Hosts Gary Goyke and Nancy Rottier
RSVP: Melissa Sargent 608.220.2273 or melissa@melissasaegent.com
Friends of Melissa Sargent 1638 Mayfield Ln Madison WI 53704
Give Online: http://www.melissasargent.com/contribute
*All Contributions Welcome
Fundraiser for 86th AD candidate John Spiros
5:30 p.m. Nikolai Construction, 8867 E. 29th St., Marshfield. With Special Guest Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen Host Donation: $250.00 Please make Checks Payable to: Spiros for Assembly 1406 East Fillmore Marshfield, WI 54449 For questions or to RSVP, please e-mail campaignforspiros@yahoo.com or call 608-738-8446.
Fundraiser for Rep. Al Ott 5:30 p.m.
The Darboy Club,
Mallard Room,
N9695 County Road N,
Appleton.
With special guests Congressman Reid Ribble
Former State Representative Mark Gottlieb
& Former State senator Alan Lasee
suggested donation $25 per person
All donations gratefully accepted
Host levels available
$500 Gold Host
$250 Silver Host
$100 Bronze Host
Please Make Checks Payable To:
Friends of Al Ott
PO Box 112
Forest Junction, WI 54123
Please RSVP to AlOttForAssembly@gmail.com or to Al at (920) 850-6279 by October 12th
Pizza party fundraiser for Rep. Robin Vos 5:30 p.m.
Mike & Angelo's Italian Restaurant,
6214 Washington Ave.,
Racine.
Suggested minimum contribution
$25 for Attendee
$100 for Supporter
Please make check payable to:
Friends & Neighbors of Robin Vos
960 Rock Ridge Rd.
Burlington, WI 53105
Additional questions & RSVP, please call 262 770 7137
Event to support Jim Crail 6 p.m.
Lucky Dog'z/Neenah Labor Temple,
157 S Green Bay Road,
Neenah.
No RSVP is required
Friends of Jim Crail
W6616 Gemstone Ct, Greenville, WI 54942
Give Online: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/jimfor55?refcode=adccevent
*All Contributions Welcome
Wednesday, October 17th
Thompson Campaign 'Countdown to Victory Luncheon'
11 a.m.
The Hyatt On Main,
333 Main St.,
Green Bay.
Please Join Us For A "Countdown To Victory Luncheon"
In Support Of The Honorable Tommy G. Thompson - U.S. Senate Candidate
With Our Special Guest The Honorable Chris Christie - Governor, State of New Jersey
11:00 a.m. ~ Host Reception / Roundtable Discussion
11:30 a.m. ~ Photo Opportunity
12:00 p.m. ~ Noon Luncheon
Host Levels:
Event Chair - $25,000 (Give & Raise)
Event Vice Chair - $10,000 (Give & Raise)
Platinum Hosts - $5,000 Per Couple
Gold Hosts - $2,500 Per Couple
Silver Hosts - $1,000 Per Couple
Luncheon Attendee - $150 Per Person / Reserved Tables of 10 - $1,500
(All Hosts & Chairs will be recognized on site)
The maximum individual contribution is $2,500. * A couple may contribute $5,000.
Checks are made payable to:Tommy Thompson For U.S. Senate, Inc.
c/o Mary Stitt * 1478 Noridge Trail * Port Washington, WI 53074
Reception for AG J.B. Van Hollen
5 PMSouth Hills Country Club,
1175 Fond du Lac Ave.,
Fond du Lac.
Hosts: $1,000, $500, & $250
Please make checks payable to: Van Hollen for Attorney General
Contact: Mike Austin at (608) 661-0777 or mike@persuasionpartners.com
Reception honoring Rep. Evan Wynn
5 p.m.
Milton Junction Pub,
130 Merchant Row,
Milton.
Please Join the Tavern League of Wisconsin & Rock, Jefferson, and Walworth County Tavern Leagues
At A Reception Honoring Rep. Evan Wynn
Featuring special guests:
Sen. Neal Kedzie & Rep. Steve Nass
Suggested contribution is $25
All Contributions Gratefully Accepted
Please Mail Contributions to
Wynn for Wisconsin
214 Lake View Dr.
Whitewater, WI 53190
Reception for Rep. John Klenke
5:15 p.m.
Swan Club,
875 Heritage Road,
De Pere.
Please Join State Representative JOHN KLENKE
For a Reception with Special Guest Speaker
Wisconsin Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch
Hors d'oeuvres will be served
$50 suggested donation.
Please Make Checks Payable to:
Klenke for 88th Assembly District
P.O. Box 9633
Green Bay, WI 54308
Event to support 87th AD candidate Elizabeth Riley 6 p.m.
Red Schoolhouse Wines,
4th St.,
Stone Lake.
Host: Elizabeth Menigo
Host: $100 Sponsor: $25
Regrets only to contact@lizabethrileyforassembly.org
Remit Payment :Friends of Elizabeth Riley
Give Online: elizabethrileyforassembly.org
*All Contributions Welcome
Fundraiser for 24th SD candidate Scott Noble 7 p.m.
Rosario's Pizza,
42 N. First St.,
Black River Falls.
Noble Fund Raiser to Feature Sen. Glenn Grothman
The Scott Kenneth Noble for Senate Campaign today announced a fund raiser to be held Wednesday, October 17, at 7PM, to be held at Rosario's Pizza, 42 N. First St., Black River Falls, WI. The event features Assistant Minority Leader, Senator Glenn Grothman, and starts at 7PM
Scott Kenneth Noble is a former Marshfield City Council Member, licensed teacher, and small businessman living in the Town of Richfield in Wood County. He believes the most important job of government is the protection of individual rights. He knows that limited government is the best path to freedom, opportunity and prosperity. Noble can be reached for comment at 715-384-3161
His website is www.nobleforsente.com, and his facebook account is www.facebook.com/NobleForSenate
Thursday, October 18th
Luncheon for Rep. Scott Suder
12 p.m.
Home of Eric and Julia Backaus,
N3423 Fairground Ave.,
Neillsville.
With Special Guest
Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch
Hosts: $50
Suggested Donation: $25
All Donations Gratefully Accepted
Please make checks payable to:
Taxpayers for Suder
102 S Fourth Avenue
Abbotsford, WI 54405
Please RSVP to Scott at 715-223-6964 or email scott.suder@gmail.com
Fundraiser for Rep. Mark Honadel
5:30 p.m.
Papa Luigi's,
1919 12th Ave.,
South Milwaukee.
Please join Rep. Mark Honadel to support his 2012 Re-Election Campaign at Papa Luigi's
Event will be held in Sal's new lounge!
Suggested Donation: $50
Make checks payable to:
Honadel for Assembly
or online at www.markhonadel.com
For questions, contact Mark at 414-764-0183 or mhonadel@wi.
Friday, October 19th
Fundraiser for 35th AD candidate Mary Czaja
5:30 p.m. Home of Lee and Dottie Kusserow, W3608 County Road P, Merrill. Suggested Contribution: $100 Any Contribution Gratefully Accepted Please Make Checks Payable to: Mary Czaja for Assembly P.O. Box 751 Tomahawk, WI 54487 RSVP by October 16th to Hillary at Hillary.Vedvig@gmail.com or 608-669-4977
|
|
Stay Connected on what's going on politically throughout the week
Follow us on Twitter
Like us on Facebook
Follow us on tumblr
|
|
|
|
|
|
