UNITED KINGDOM (POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT) - Civil society in the UK has voted for the country to withdraw from the European Union (EU), in a landmark referendum vote on 24 June. The Brexit vote has initiated a number of political implications for the country; chief among them the resignation of current Prime Minister David Cameron, effective from October. The vote has also served to reignite latent tensions and calls for independence from UK territories, specifically from Scottish nationalists. In addition, the vote is also likely to exacerbate existing anti-economic austerity policies, amid varied resultant speculations regarding the stability of the British economy following the vote. Despite this, current political relations within the country, as well as with the EU, are expected to remain the same for the immediate-term, as further negotiations regarding the formal withdrawal from the union are undertaken. The outcome of the vote poses no immediate security or travel-related concern. The Brexit vote is controversial and will serve to drive and influence political developments and interstate relationships in Europe in the coming months. While there are no immediate security or travel concerns, related protests and rallies in the UK by persons opposed to or in favour of the vote result may occur. Such events are likely to take place in the capital, London, as well as in the areas where there has been calls for independence, such as Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The threat of violence at related protest activity is assessed to be low; however, the possibility of isolated skirmishes cannot be discounted. Normal travel to and operations in the UK can continue. Persons in the country over the medium-term should monitor local media for information on the latest developments and possible associated protests. Clients are advised to avoid all large street gatherings and concentration of security forces as a standard precaution.

 

UAE / CZECH REPUBLIC (AIRLINE ROUTE) - Dubai-based flydubai has announced that it will begin daily operations to Prague from July 1st, up from four weekly flights.

UNITED STATES (WILDFIRE) - A wildfire is currently affecting Kern County in the US state of California, after breaking out on 23 June. The fire, which broke out at approximately 16:00 local time in the Lake Isabella area, has burnt at least 5,000 acres of land; mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for dozens of homes in the Bella Vista, South Fork, Weldon, Onyx, Lakeland Estates, Mountain Mesa, South Lake, Squirrel Valley, and Yankee Canyon areas. Furthermore, road travel disruptions have been reported as a result of the fire, with Highway 178 closed between Highway 155 and Sierra Way. Disruptions to power supply have also been reported in some areas of Kern County. There have been no reports of casualties as a result of the fires. Wildfires occur predominantly in the western parts of the US, including California, when the weather is hot and dry. Rural and heavily forested areas are at an increased risk of being affected. Further evacuations, road closures and localised travel disruptions should be anticipated in the near-term. Clients in or planning on travelling to the affected area in the aforementioned county should monitor local media for regular updates on the situation. Clients should also adhere to all advisories and evacuation orders issued by local authorities. If travelling by car in an affected area, ensure that all windows are closed and that the air conditioning system is adjusted to prevent smoke from entering the vehicle.

 

MEXICO (PLANNED PROTEST) - (Update) Numerous protests have been planned in Mexico for 26 June. In the capital, Mexico City, a demonstration in support of striking teachers affiliated with the National Coordination of Education Workers (CNTE), has been called. Participants are expected to gather at the Angel of Independence Monument at 11:00 local time, and proceed along Avenida Reforma to Plaza de la Constitucion (Zocalo). Related CNTE protests are expected in various CNTE stronghold states, including Oaxaca. A separate demonstration is expected to mark the disappearance of the 43 student teachers from the town of Iguala, Guerrero state, in September 2014. The demonstration will take place in Guerrero's state capital, Chilpancingo; however, further details regarding the time and location of the protest have not been disclosed. The protests take place amid ongoing disruptive and violent protests by CNTE members against government education reforms; these protests have affected numerous states, including Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan and Chiapas, since mid-May. The agitation saw a marked escalation following the arrests of two CNTE leaders on 12 June. There remains a possibility that other activist groups, organisations and unions may participate in the agitation to voice their own respective concerns with the government. In addition to being disruptive, the risk of further violence at any upcoming protests is assessed to be elevated; particularly for events that carry a strong anti-government sentiment. Clients in Mexico on 26 June are advised to avoid all street protests as a standard precaution. Persons in the strike-affected states over the near-term should monitor local media for updates on related developments and protests, and should confirm the status of roads prior to travelling. Furthermore, it should be noted that heightened caution is advised across Mexico due to the threats of crime and kidnapping, and the incidental risk of organised crime-related conflict.

 

MEXICO / VENEZUELA (FLIGHT SUSPENSION) - Mexico-based airline, Aeromexico, announced the suspension of flights to and from Venezuela, for an indefinite period of time, as of 23 June. The announcement takes place amid Venezuela's ongoing political and economic crises. Aeromexico's announcement follows similar flight suspensions to Venezuela by the Germany-based airline, Lufthansa, as well as Latin America Airlines (LATAM). In light of the ongoing crises in Venezuela, further flight suspensions by international and regional airlines are possible in the near-term. Clients intending to travel to and from Venezuela by air in the coming months should confirm flight(s)
prior to departure. The checks should be done regularly in conjunction with your travel provider and airline.

FRANCE (PLANNED PROTEST) - Further anti-labour reform protests are expected countrywide in France, on 28 June. Several labour unions, including the General Confederation of Labour (CGT), and activist and civic groups, have called for the protests to coincide with ongoing discussions regarding the proposed labour bill in Parliament on the day. Demonstrations are expected in several major urban areas, with the largest of these expected in the capital, Paris, where a protest is scheduled to take place. Participants are scheduled to gather at Place de la Nation from 14:00 local time, and proceed to Place d'Italie, where a rally will be held. These protests are the latest in a series of anti-labour reform protests that have been held in the country in recent months, with the most recent protests having taken place on 23 June. While the protests are expected to conclude peacefully, associated events have previously been marred by incidents of unrest, including clashes between participants and police, and acts of vandalism. As such, the possibility of the upcoming demonstrations being marred by similar incidents cannot be discounted. The demonstrations are expected to be well attended, and accompanied by an increased police presence; localised travel disruptions are also anticipated in the vicinity of demonstration sites. As the debates regarding labour reforms are set to continue, further protest action in this regard is expected to persist for the short- to medium-term, at least. Persons in France are advised to avoid all large street gatherings and concentrations of security forces as a general precaution. Clients are further advised to monitor local media for updates and information on associated protest activity.

FRANCE (CRIME)- A Russian national is said to have been killed in an apparent violent crime incident in Toulouse, France, overnight on 21/22 June. Unidentified gunmen, on a motorcycle reportedly opened fire on the victim and his colleague, while they were standing among a group of bystanders outside a local store in an unspecified area in the Le Mirail area of the city. At least one other person was wounded in the incident. The motivation for the shooting remains unknown and investigations into the incident are ongoing. There is a medium risk of both petty and violent crime in France, with petty street crime being the most prevalent. The threat is considered elevated in major urban areas, including Toulouse. Violent crime incidents affecting foreign nationals, while uncommon, do periodically occur as the most recent incident indicates. Persons in France should remain aware of the prevailing risks of petty and violent crime. Standard security precautions should be implemented at all times irrespective of location.

SPAIN (ELECTIONS) - Spain is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections on 26 June. This will be the second set of parliamentary elections in six months, due to the inability to form a new government following the previous polls in December. While the People's Party (PP) is forecast to have the lead, the centrist Ciudadanos and anti-austerity Podemos are expected to make significant gains and diminish former parties' political dominance, changing the country's electoral landscape. Previous election periods have passed peacefully, with no significant incidents of politically motivated violence having been reported. However, isolated protest action by various political, civic and labour groups prior to or following the elections cannot be discounted. Associated disruptions to travel and business services are expected in the country's major urban areas in the period leading to and on the day of the elections. In addition, an increased security presence should be anticipated in and around strategic interests such as polling stations, ballot counting centres and political party offices Persons in Spain on 26 June are advised to avoid all polling stations and politically motivated gatherings as a standard security precaution. Clients are advised to keep itineraries flexible to accommodate potential travel disruptions.

 

VENEZUELA (PLANNED PROTEST) - Pro-government protests are expected at major squares in urban areas across Venezuela on 24 June. The protests have been called by President Nicolas Maduro to denounce the opposition Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD)-led National Assembly and its attempts to push forward a recall referendum. Further details regarding the protests have not been disclosed. The protests will take place amid Venezuela's ongoing economic and political crises. An increased level of civil unrest has been experienced in recent months, particularly in Caracas, in response to the crises. Numerous pro- and anti-government demonstrations have been marred by violent clashes. The possibility of similar clashes at the upcoming protests cannot be discounted. Clients in Venezuela in the near-term should closely monitor political developments, exercise heightened personal security awareness and maintain a low profile. All street protests and concentrations of security forces should be avoided as a precaution. Furthermore, in light of the ongoing economic and political crises, clients are advised to ensure that crisis management plans are regularly reviewed and updated.

ARGENTINA (PLANNED DEMONSTRATION) - The anniversary of the deaths of two protesters, Maximiliano Kosteki and Dario Santillan, will be commemorated in Argentina on 26 June. The two 'piqueteros' were killed by police officers during a demonstration in Avellaneda, in Buenos Aires province, in 2002. Demonstrators are expected to blockade the Pueyrredon Bridge between the federal capital, Buenos Aires, and Avellaneda from 11:00 local time on 26 June. Related rallies are also anticipated in Cordoba, Tucuman and Salta. Demonstrators are also expected to blockade the bridge between Cipolletti city in Rio Negro province and Neuquen in its eponymous province, in a related rally. Associated demonstrations are also possible in urban centres elsewhere. The commemorative rallies and related events are expected to be well attended and will likely result in localised disruptions in the vicinity of the events. The risk of violence is low; nonetheless, the possibility of low-level skirmishes cannot be discounted. Clients in Argentina on 26 June are advised to avoid all related protests, rallies and large commemorative gatherings as a standard precaution. Allowances should be made for potential disruptions.

TURKEY (SHOOTING INCIDENT) - At least three people were killed in a shooting incident at Ankara University Hospital, in Turkey's capital, Ankara, on 24 June. The gunman, believed to be an employee of the hospital, was reportedly engaged in an argument with a group of men, before opening fire. Further details regarding the incident are unknown. In light of the incident, an increased police force presence should be anticipated in the vicinity of the Ankara University Hospital in the immediate-term. Clients in Ankara on 24 June are advised to avoid the affected area in the immediate-term, and should abide by the directives of the authorities, should they be issued. Allowances should be made for any potential localised travel disruptions.

THAILAND - Unrest and protests remain possible for the duration of Myanmar's state counsellor, Aung San Suu Kyi's three-day official visit to Thailand. The state counsellor and leader of Myanmar's ruling National League for Democracy (NLD), arrived in Thailand on 23 June for diplomatic purposes and is expected to depart on 25 June. Suu Kyi is also expected to address thousands of Myanmarese migrant workers residing in Thailand. On 23 June, Thai security forces dispersed scores of migrant workers in Mahachai, located in the Samut Sakhon province, attempting to meet Suu Kyi. Authorities allegedly prohibited a significant number of migrants from meeting the state counsellor, which incited low-level unrest, including scuffles. Suu Kyi is currently in the capital, Bangkok, and is expected to address the public outside the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in the coming hours. Suu Kyi, viewed as a national hero by many in Myanmar, has gained international acclaim as a human rights activist. As such, migrant advocacy groups may seek to protest in the vicinity of all gatherings Suu Kyi is expected to attend in a bid to highlight the perceived human rights violations suffered by Myanmarese migrant workers as well as other grievances. Thailand has strict laws pertaining to public gatherings and police may forcefully disperse protests. Unsanctioned protests carry a greater risk of violent confrontations between police and participants. Increased security force deployments and traffic congestion is anticipated in the vicinity of all events Suu Kyi is scheduled to attend. Clients in Bangkok are advised to monitor developments closely and avoid any possible demonstrations or politically motivated gatherings as a precaution against violent civil unrest. Clients are further advised to make allowances for localised traffic disruptions and increased security measures in the affected areas.

MADAGASCAR (SECURITY ADVISORY CHANGE) - The travel advisory for several southern regions of Madagascar, including Androy, Anosy, Atsimo-Andrefana, Atsimo-Atsinanana, and Ihorombe, have been revised and updated. It should be noted that this change does not impact the overall risk rating for the country, which remains high. There has been a notable uptick in bandit (known locally as 'dahalo') attacks in southern Madagascar in recent months. Although the activities of dahalo are believed to have originated in ritualised cattle thefts, the scope of their criminality has since evolved into large-scale cattle rustling and raids, typically accompanied by the use of assault rifles. At least 31 people were killed in a recent attack by bandits in the Atsimo-Andrefana region on 21 June. In order to address the incidence of attacks in the country, a special task force was established on 17 June. Known as the Unite Speciale Anti-Dahalo (USAD), the operations of this force are set to extend throughout the Androy, Anosy, Atsimo-Andrefana, Atsimo-Atsinanana, and Ihorombe regions, which are believed to have an elevated dahalo presence. It should be noted that the isolated nature of rural areas in these regions, as well as the hostile terrains surrounding them, make it difficult for security forces to permanently patrol them and eliminate the aforementioned threat. We advise against all non-essential travel to rural and remote areas in the southern Androy, Anosy, Atsimo-Andrefana, Atsimo-Atsinanana, and Ihorombe regions due to heightened threats of banditry and criminality. Persons travelling outside of major urban centres or police-protected tourist areas should do so with a security or trusted local escort and during the day only.

MADAGASCAR (ARMED ATTACKS) - At least 31 people were killed and a further 17 wounded following an armed attack by suspected bandits (known locally as Dahalo) in Madagascar's south western Atsimo-Andrefana region, on 21 June. The victims were said to be travelling between the towns of Beroroha and Toliara when their bush taxi was brought to a stop by a barricade. Conflicting reports assert that the vehicle overturned when the driver attempted to drive through the barricade, during which time the bandits opened fire. The attack followed an earlier ambush on a military vehicle in the same place on the day; although at least two soldiers were wounded during the incident, the security forces were reportedly able to repel the assault. The aforementioned attacks will likely trigger an elevated security presence in the affected area in the near-term. Moreover, protests and reprisal attacks by locals against suspected criminals are also a possibility. The attacks on 21 June serve to underscore the high threat of banditry in southern Madagascar in general, and outside urban areas in particular. Although the activities of Dahalos are believed to have originated in ritualised cattle thefts, the scope of their criminality has since evolved into large-scale cattle rustling and raids, typically accompanied by the use of assault rifles. A notable uptick in related attacks in the region in recent months led to the establishment of a special task force, known as the Unite Speciale Anti-Dahalo (USAD), on 17 June. USAD operations are set to extend throughout the Androy, Anosy, Atsimo-Andrefana, Atsimo-Atsinanana, and Ihorombe regions, which are known to have an elevated Dahalo presence. It should be noted that the isolated nature of rural areas, as well as the hostile terrains surrounding them, make it difficult for security forces to patrol them and eliminate the threat of banditry. As such, further attacks are possible in the near-term. Clients are advised against all non-essential travel to rural and remote areas in the southern Androy, Anosy, Atsimo-Andrefana, Atsimo-Atsinanana, and Ihorombe regions, due to heightened threats of banditry and criminality. Persons currently operating outside of urban areas in these regions are advised to exercise robust security measures and utilise an escort familiar with the region.

MOROCCO (TERRORISM THREAT) - The authorities in Morocco announced the arrest of ten suspected militants and the thwarting of planned attacks, on 23 June. The arrested persons, with possible links to the Islamic State (IS), were operating in Oujda and Tendrara in the north east of the country. The government regularly issues statements indicating that it has thwarted planned attacks and arrested persons linked to militant groupings. The arrests underscore the risk of terrorism in the country, which largely stems from Islamist extremists. The last major attack in Morocco was in Marrakech in 2011. Clients in Morocco are advised to exercise a heightened level of personal security awareness. Foreigners should maintain a low public profile and should seek regular itinerary-specific assessments and advice from their security provider.

MOZAMBIQUE / ANGOLA (FLIGHT SUSPENSION) - Mozambique Airlines (LAM) is set to temporarily suspend flight operations to Angola's capital, Luanda, from 1 July. The decision comes amid growing concerns regarding financial and operational difficulties in the current economic environment in the country. Authorities state that affected ticket holders are protected under the partnership between LAM and TAAG Angola Airlines, the national carrier of Angola. Affected persons will have to fly via Johannesburg, on the LAM flights between Maputo and Johannesburg, and the TAAG flights between Johannesburg and Luanda. Persons intending to fly to and from Angola on Mozambique Airlines should contact their respective travel providers(s) for further information regarding the status of flights, as well as possible travel alternatives.

 

KENYA (HEIGHTENED SECURITY) - According to reports on 23 June, as many as 400 additional police officers have been deployed in Kenya's western Kerio Valley, amid ongoing concerns over communal violence and banditry in the area. The increased security force presence will reportedly enable constant sentry patrols in affected communities, as well as safeguard public institutions. Local media assert at that least 20 people have been killed, and more than 1,000 livestock stolen, in the Kerio Valley area since early 2016. Although the cattle rustling and associated violence have predominantly occurred between the Pokot and Marakwet communities, who have a history of inter-ethnic violence, several officials assert that the incidents may have been orchestrated by bandits employed by local livestock cartels. Tribal violence, banditry, and cattle rustling are a particular security concern in many rural parts of Kenya. Sporadic incidents of communal violence, usually involving gunfights between rival clans, are known to occur. They are generally related to persistent conflicts over resources, such as land, cattle, and water. In the Kerio Valley specifically, tensions over natural resources and pasture rights have resulted in several clashes between the Pokot and Marakwet communities in recent years. Although foreign nationals are unlikely to be directly targeted in related violence, there remains a high incidental risk to all persons in the vicinity of communal conflict. Persons operating in the Kerio Valley are advised to avoid areas recently affected by violence as a standard precaution. Clients are further advised to monitor local developments closely and to exercise heightened caution at all times. Persons conducting travel in rural areas in Kenya, regardless of location, should implement robust security measures and utilise an escort familiar with the region.

PARAGUAY (PLANNED PROTEST) - A protest march against violence has been organised in Paraguay's capital, Asuncion, on 24 June. The protest was called to denounce police violence, specifically, the alleged shooting of a child by police in Nueva Italia. Participants are expected to gather at Plaza Uruguaya at 19:00 local time, and proceed to the Ministry of Interior building. It is unclear how many people will attend the protest; nonetheless, localised disruptions should be anticipated along the protest route. The risk of violence at the event is assessed to be low; however, the possibility of isolated skirmishes cannot be discounted. Clients in Asuncion on 24 June should avoid all street protests as a standard precaution. Allowances should be made for potential localised disruptions.

LIBYA (CLASHES) - Clashes were reported overnight 23/24 June in Libya's capital, Tripoli, between rival militias. The fighting centred in and around the Abu Sleem district and was reportedly triggered by an earlier shooting incident which left a child dead. Local residents reportedly blamed militia linked to the city of Misrata for the shooting, leading another local armed group to target the Misrata group. The incident is the latest to involve Misrata militia. On 21 June, Misrata militiamen were involved in clashes with locals in Gasr Garabulli (or Castelverde), located 65km east of Tripoli. The Garabulli area violence left dozens of people dead. Also recently, anti-Misrata protests were reported in the Ghut Shaal area, west of the capital. Local residents used debris to block roads. Further violence and civil unrest is possible in the Tripoli area and its surrounds over the near-term. Clients are advised against all travel to Libya. Persons in Tripoli should avoid the Abu Sleem area until the situation stabilises. Likewise, travel east and west of the capital, by road, should be conducted after consultation with the local authorities or a security provider. Clients in Libya should travel with a security escort.

 

TOGO (PLANNED PROTESTS) - The opposition coalition, Combat for Political Change 2015 (CAP 2015), is set to hold a mass political rally in Vogan, located in Togo's southern Maritime region, on 25 June. Although further details regarding the demonstration have not been disclosed, the event has reportedly been organised as part of an ongoing protest campaign in which CAP 2015 outlines their grievances with the ruling Union for the Republic (UNIR) party. Although the upcoming rally is expected to conclude peacefully, it should be noted that previous protests organised by CAP 2015 have been well attended and have been marred by isolated violent confrontations between police and opposition activists. Security forces often employ robust tactics when dealing with incidents of dissent; confrontations between police and protesters may pose an incidental risk to bystanders. Persons operating in Vogan on 25 June are advised to monitor local media for updates on the rally, as well as related advisories from the authorities. All demonstrations and large street gatherings should be avoided as a standard precaution. Clients are further advised to make allowances for localised travel disruptions in the vicinity of the demonstration site.

PAKISTAN (BOMBING) - The US Consulate in Karachi issued a message on 23 June warning of a 'heightened threat level in the near-term affecting Pakistani government and military installations, hotels, and Western interests' in the vicinity of Quetta, located in south western Pakistan. Further information regarding the nature or source of the threat was not provided. Following the statement a suspected roadside bomb explosion in Quetta on 24 June left at least three people dead and 20 others wounded. The explosion was reported in the Almo Chowk area near Airport Road. Quetta is located in Pakistan's restive Balochistan province. A number of non-state armed groups are thought to operate in this area, including Baloch separatist groups. These groups generally pose a risk to state and foreign interests. In light of the recent warning and attack, a heightened police presence is anticipated in Quetta over the near-term. Additional patrols and checkpoints should be expected. Clients are advised against all travel to Balochistan province. Persons in Quetta should avoid the Almo Chowk area over the near-term. Heightened caution is advised near state facilities and personnel and in areas frequented by foreign, particularly Western, nationals. Clients in Quetta should travel with a security escort.

BAHRAIN (PLANNED PROTESTS) - The UK's Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) has issued a statement warning of unauthorised protests in villages along the Budaiya Highway and in Diraz from 13:00 local time in Bahrain on 24 June. Further detail has not been provided. The information coincides with calls by the 14 February Revolution Youth Coalition for protests in the same areas on 24 June. The agitation is in response to the recent government action against a prominent Shiite cleric. The government revoked the citizenship of Bahrain's most senior Shiite Muslim cleric, Isa Ahmed Qassim, on 21 June. Prior to this the government also suspended the al-Wefaq opposition organisation in mid-June.: The developments have resulted in numerous anti-government protests in recent days, particularly in the Diraz area. Further civil unrest is anticipated. The recent events may also serve to catalyse the anti-government protest movement, which is led by members of the predominantly Shiite opposition against the Sunni regime. The risk of violence is elevated at all protest sites, particularly at events that occur in or near the capital, Manama. Heightened caution is advised outside of the capital, and Bahrain International Airport, particularly in outlying Shiite villages, due to the elevated risk of civil unrest. All street protests should be avoided as a precaution. Crisis management plans should be regularly reviewed and updated.