GUATEMALA(ZACAPA DEPARTMENT) - A Colombian national, kidnapped by unknown assailants in Guatemala's eponymous Guatemala department, is said to have escaped his captors during security raids in the Estanzuela municipality, located in the Zapaca department, on 23 February. The victim was reportedly abducted in the San Cristobal area of the capital, Guatemala City, on 20 February. A ransom demand of approximately US$800,000 was made. Further details regarding the kidnapping and circumstances surrounding the victim's escape are currently unavailable, and no arrests have been made in connection with the incident. The incident underscores the high kidnapping risk in Guatemala. There are a number of organised criminal gangs, conducting predominately financially motivated abductions. Locals, as well as wealthy businesspeople and their dependants, are predominately targeted. However, there have been cases involving the abduction of foreign nationals in the country for short- or long-term stays, as evidenced by the recent incident. Persons in Guatemala are advised to remain aware of the prevailing threat of kidnapping. Persons in the country should maintain a low profile and be alert to suspicious persons and/or activity.

LEBANON - Three Gulf states issued advisories to their nationals on 23 February to leave Lebanon or to avoid travelling to the country. The countries include the Sunni Gulf allies Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain. Saudi Arabia also issued a statement on 19 February indicating that it was halting aid to the Lebanese military due to the continued negative influence that Hezbollah had over the Lebanese state. The UAE and Bahrain have reiterated Saudi Arabia's position vis-a-vis Hezbollah, and have also denounced Iranian influence over Lebanon. Hezbollah is an ally of Iran. The measures by the Gulf states should be viewed within the wider regional contest for influence between predominantly Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia and its allies, and Shiite Muslim Iran. The two sides support opposing armed groups in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. Iran also supports the Shiite minority in eastern Saudi Arabia and Shiite communities agitating against the Sunni ruling class in Bahrain. Tensions between the two sides escalated further in early January after Saudi Arabia executed a prominent Shiite cleric. In response to the execution, anti-Saudi protests were reported in multiple areas of the region. Attacks against Saudi diplomatic facilities in Tehran and Mashhad in Iran led Saudi Arabia and its allies to downgrade diplomatic ties with Iran. Recently, there have been increasing concerns that Sunni states may deploy ground forces to Syria to aid rebels against the Syrian regime and its allies, including Iran and Hezbollah. The recent advisories for Lebanon, rather than reflecting a change in the baseline security risks in the country, should be viewed through the wider lens of competition between the region's two major blocs. It should be noted that there is already an elevated risk of civil unrest and terrorism in Lebanon. Should the withdrawal of Gulf support for the Lebanese state extend for any lengthy period of time, the government may become increasingly unstable. This could lead Hezbollah, which has intervened extra-constitutionally against the Lebanese government in the past, to initiate protests or exert some other form of pressure on the state. Terrorist groupings could also seek to further escalate tensions between the two blocs, by initiating attacks in the country. Hezbollah and its strongholds, which have been regularly targeted over the past two years by Sunni extremists in Lebanon, are likely targets, as are state and Western interests. Clients are advised against all non-essential travel to most of Lebanon, including Beirut, and against all travel to certain areas, including Palestinian refugee camps, Tripoli, areas south of the Litani River in the Ej Jnoub and Nabatieh governorates and to within 15km of the shared border with Syria in the Bekaa and North governorates, due to various security risks. Clients in the country should monitor political and security developments closely in conjunction with their security provider. Crisis management plans should be regularly reviewed and updated; this is particularly pertinent for longer-term visitors or residents.

NIGERIA(NIGER DELTA) - A Niger Delta-based group, the Niger Delta Avengers, issued a statement on 22 February threatening to attack oil installations in southern Nigeria's Delta State. The group is demanding that income generated from oil extraction in the Niger Delta be directed towards the local community. The militant group also claimed responsibility for an attack on Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria's (SPDC) Forcados Terminal Pipeline in mid-February. In late January, assailants destroyed Agip pipelines, which were managed by a subsidiary of the Italian company, ENI, in the Brass area of Bayelsa state. These followed attacks between 14 and 16 January in the Warri area of Delta State, following the court-ordered arrest of a former militant commander, Government 'Tompolo' Ekpemupolo. In response to these recent incidents, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari ordered additional security force personnel to the Niger Delta in mid-February to assist local authorities in curbing pipeline vandalism and kidnapping for ransom incidents. The oil-rich Niger Delta region has experienced persistent insecurity in recent years. This has largely been driven by demands of the local population that income generated by the oil industry be distributed to, or invested in, the local community. There are a number of non-state armed groups operating in the region that are battling to achieve this goal. The government has signed agreements with a number of these groups in recent years to end the fighting, which has served to decrease the number of incidents. Some of these bodies have also aligned with legitimate local-level state bodies. Despite the success of the current 'patronage' system, the threat of resumption in hostilities is ever present, as evidenced by the recent incidents. Clients are advised against all travel to several Niger Delta states, including Delta State and Bayelsa, due to elevated conflict, terrorism, kidnapping and crime risks. Personnel operating in the region should travel with a security escort and reside in secure compounds.

NIGERIA/COTE D'IVOIRE - (Update) The Nigerian military launched an operation to free a recently hijacked oil tanker, the Panama-flagged, Maximus, on 20 February. The vessel, hijacked on 11 February off the coast of Cote d'Ivoire near Abidjan, was escorted into Lagos on 22 February with the six detained hijackers. Another assailant was killed during the rescue operation. The assailants were a mix of Nigerian and Ghanaian nationals. The vessels crew included nationals of India, Pakistan, China, South Korea, Sudan and Ghana. Two of the victims remain missing. These persons were transported by two other hijackers, an Indian and Pakistani national, to an undisclosed location after the initial incident. There is an elevated piracy and kidnapping risk in the Gulf of Guinea, between Liberia and Gabon. The risk is considered highest in sea lanes off the coast of Nigeria. There are numerous armed groups operating in this region which target commercial vessels for theft and kidnap crew and hijack vessels for ransom. The risk also extends to leisure craft. Seafarers in the Gulf of Guinea are advised to adopt robust security measures with regard to their vessel and crew. Local and global maritime authorities should be regularly contacted for updates on the general risk in the region.

NIGERIA(RIVERS STATE) - According to a local media report on 24 February, police officials in Nigeria's southern Rivers State have issued a statement warning the public against entering commercial vehicles, including taxis, outside of designated 'motor parks'. The authorities have noted an increase in kidnappings by bogus transport operators in the south of the state. A number of the victims have been killed. In a related development, the mother of a prominent Rivers State official was released on 18 February. She was abducted on 12 February in Okrika near Port Harcourt. It is unclear if a ransom was paid. The kidnappers originally demanded a ransom of US$150,000. The warning and recent incident underscore the elevated kidnapping for ransom risk in Nigeria's Niger Delta. The risk is particularly acute in Rivers State, where numerous kidnapping gangs operate. Local citizens are most frequently targeted; however, the risk also extends to foreign nationals. The risk of being affected increases if basic precautions are not adopted. Clients are advised against all travel to Rivers State. Persons in the state, particularly those operating outside of Port Harcourt, should travel with a security escort and reside in secure compounds. Travel at night should be avoided. All travellers should avoid using public transport.

MYANMAR(SHAN STATE) - According to reports released on 24 February, intensified clashes have been reported between armed separatist groups and the Myanmar Armed Forces (known as the Tatmadaw) in Myanmar's Shan state in recent days. The Tatmadaw is conducting security operations in the Namhsan and Kyaukme areas, where the Shan State Army - South (SSA-S) and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) have been engaged in armed clashes for several days. Fighting has also been reported in other parts of the Palaung Self-Administered Zone between the TNLA and the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS). At least 3,657 people have been displaced and an undisclosed number of casualties have been reported in the affected areas since 10 February. The clashes are in violation of the current ceasefire agreement, to which SSA-S and RCSS are signatories. The latest surge in conflict comes amid proposed further peace negotiations regarding the ceasefire agreement between the government and armed groups, and those ethnic separatist groups excluded from the agreement. The TNLA, excluded from the ceasefire agreement drafted in October 2015, has alleged that the government has supported the SSA-A and other signatories such as the RCSS in gaining a foothold in the disputed areas. Myanmar's ceasefire committee has called on the SSA-S to withdraw its troops from the affected areas, and abide with the provisions set forth in the agreement; although these directives have not been heeded. The United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), a coalition of armed ethnic groups excluded from the agreement, are in negotiations with the government regarding a peace agreement that would include all armed groups; however, the eight armed groups already engaged in a ceasefire have rejected this proposition several times. The Union Peace-making Working Committee (UPWC) has stated its intention to draft a new agreement including current signatories and the UNFC prior to 1 April, when the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) party is due to take over. The US Embassy in Yangon and Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade have both advised a high degree of caution to be exercised near the affected areas. In light of the ongoing insecurity in the region, and the fact that current peace talks between the UNFC, ceasefire signatories and the central government have resulted in a stalemate, further clashes remain likely in the short- to medium-term. Due to conflict between rebel groups and government forces, heightened caution is advised for travel to Shan state. Persons in Shan state are further advised to monitor related developments closely and should maintain a low-profile. Any advisory issued by local authorities should be heeded, and travel to conflict-impacted areas should be avoided.

MOROCCO - (Update) Further information regarding the recent arrest of ten suspected militants in Morocco's El Jadida, Essaouira, Meknes and Sidi Kacem cities, reported by the authorities on 18 February, has been received. Media reports on 21 February indicate that three prominent targets were reportedly being targeted by the Islamist extremists. The targets included the Morocco Mall, the headquarters of Cherifien Office of Phosphates (OCP) and the Moroccan Office of Tobacco, all located in Casablanca, and the Sofitel and Al Madina hotels in Essaouira. Earlier reports stated that the method of attack was a suicide car bombing. The government regularly issues statements indicating that it has thwarted planned attacks and arrested persons linked to militant groupings. The description of specific targets is noteworthy and increases the likelihood that the planned action was nearing execution. The arrests underscore the risk of terrorism in the country, which largely stems from Islamist extremists. The last major attack in Morocco was in Marrakech in 2011. Clients in Morocco are advised to exercise a heightened level of personal security awareness. Foreigners should maintain a low public profile and should seek regular itinerary-specific assessments and advice from their security provider.

TURKEY(KEMALPASA DISTRICT) - Unidentified assailants fired an explosive device towards a security force facility in the Kemalpasa district, located 25km east of the coastal city of Izmir, on 23 February. The attack caused some damage but no casualties. The type of incident is common in the south east of Turkey where attacks by Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) rebels against Turkish state interests are frequently reported; however, incidents are less common along Turkey's Aegean coastal areas, a popular tourist destination. Turkey has experienced a series of high-profile attacks in its major urban centres and a spike in conflict in its south east in recent months. There are concerns that its coastal tourist areas could increasingly be affected over the near-term. Clients in Turkey, regardless of location, should exercise a heightened level of personal security awareness at all times, particularly near state facilities and personnel and in popular tourist areas. Suspicious persons and packages should be reported to the authorities.

LIBYA(BENGHAZI, DERNA & SABRATHA) - Libyan National Army (LNA) forces supported by French Special Forces have reportedly captured the al-Leithi, Buatni, Hawari, Sabri and Suq Al-Hout areas of Benghazi, located in north eastern Libya, from Islamic State (IS)-aligned militants and other non-state armed fighters in recent days. Non-state armed groups remain in place in the Gwarsha, Garayunis and Gamhouda areas. Elsewhere, fighting was reported in Derna on 22 February when IS forces launched an assault in the District 400 and Fataieh areas. The assault was repelled by rival militants. Further west, in Sabratha, IS militants launched an attack on the city on 23 February. Confrontations with the local Alwadi Brigade were reported. IS forces, who number approximately 100 to 150 fighters, have taken control of several buildings, including a police station, banks and the local hospital. Militia from nearby towns have been deployed to Sabratha to assist the Alwadi Brigade. The IS assault follows days after a US-led air strike on the town which killed several IS militants. The fighting underlines the ongoing elevated conflict risk in the country. IS and other non-state armed groups maintain positions in several coastal areas. IS' main area of strength is the central coastal city of Sirte and its immediate surrounds; however, the group also maintains a presence in the far north east, in the Derna area, and far north west, in the Sabratha area. The group is well funded and composed of hundreds of fighters. The capture of parts of Benghazi by the LNA forces is a significant achievement, if confirmed. Fighting in the city has been ongoing for several years. Should LNA forces take full control of Benghazi, they are likely to push west towards IS positions in Sirte. Clients are advised against all travel to Libya. Persons in the country should travel with a security escort and ensure that crisis management plans are regularly updated.

SOUTH AFRICA(JOHANNESBURG, GAUTENG PROVINCE) - Local authorities have advised the public to avoid Sauer and Bree streets in central Johannesburg, South Africa, due to ongoing disruptive protests in the city on 24 February. Unionised employees of the Johannesburg Road Agency (JRA), who launched an unsanctioned strike in the city on 23 February, are said to be continuing their demonstrations for a second day. Protesters involved in the strike have reportedly barricaded thoroughfares with burning tyres. The strike action has been called in response to wage disputes and unpaid performance bonuses. Protests and demonstrations related to labour disputes, both legal and unsanctioned, occur frequently in South Africa. Such gatherings often degenerate into violent confrontations between protesters and security forces. In addition, there have been several instances where private vehicles driving within protest-affected areas have been attacked by demonstrators. Traffic disruptions in and around central Johannesburg should be anticipated until the situation calms. Due to current heightened tensions, persons transiting through central Johannesburg on 24 February are advised to exercise increased security awareness and avoid protest-affected areas until the situation has stabilised. In addition, clients are advised to ensure that itineraries remain flexible, in order to accommodate possible travel delays.

SOUTH AFRICA(CAPE TOWN, WESTERN CAPE PROVINCE) - (Update) At least three separate protest rallies are expected to take place outside South Africa's Parliament building, located in central Cape Town, on 24 February. The demonstrations have all been scheduled to coincide with the national budget speech by the minister of finance, Pravin Gordhan, on the day. Protesters affiliated with the Communication Workers Union (CWU), the Equal Education movement, and the Government Employees Pension Fund (GEPF) have reportedly been given permission to stage demonstrations according to specific time slots. The protest gatherings are set to take place respectively from 09:00 to 11:00, 11:00 to 13:00, and 14:00 to 18:00 local time. Protests and demonstrations stemming from political issues and labour disputes are common in South Africa. Although the upcoming protests are expected to conclude peacefully, it should be noted that protest gatherings in South Africa frequently turn violent, disrupting traffic, businesses and service delivery. Heightened security measures and an increased security presence are anticipated in and around the Parliamentary precinct on the day. Persons in Cape Town on 24 February are advised to avoid the upcoming protests and all related large street gatherings as a standard precaution. Itineraries should be kept flexible in order to make allowances for localised traffic disruptions in the vicinity of the Parliament grounds. All directives issued by the local authorities should be adhered to.

UGANDA - Local government elections are set to be held countrywide in Uganda on 24 February, amid elevated political tensions. The government has declared the day a public holiday in order to ensure that all citizens are able to take part in the voting process; polling booths are expected to be open from 07:00 to 16:00 local time. Disruptions to business and travel services are possible on 24 February as a result of the aforementioned public holiday. This second phase of Uganda's 2016 elections will see voters elect mayoral positions and councillors. Presidential elections held on 18 February saw the incumbent president, Yoweri Museveni, re-elected into office for his fifth consecutive term since first coming into power in 1986. Opposition forces, including Kizza Besigye of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) party, have asserted that the elections were subject to voter fraud, and continue to dispute the outcome. As a result, major urban centres in Uganda have been affected by incidents of civil unrest in the post-election period. The capital, Kampala, has been the worst affected by such protests. Given the current tensions in Uganda, local government elections may be equally affected by low-scale incidents of unrest. The possibility of violence between protesters and security forces, as well as between rival protesters, cannot be discounted at such events and may pose an incidental risk to bystanders. Persons in Uganda on 24 February are advised to avoid all election-related facilities and personnel as a standard precaution. Furthermore, all street protests and politically motivated gatherings should be avoided, in order to mitigate the threat of unrest. Allowances for localised travel delays should be made in the vicinity of any polling stations.

ECUADOR(QUITO) - Students at the Montufar High School in Ecuador's capital, Quito, are expected to embark on protest action outside the school at 18:00 local time on 24 February. Unconfirmed reports have indicated that a related protest is also anticipated on 26 February, at the same time. The students are protesting in opposition to the Ministry of Education's decision to reduce the teaching staff at the school. Related protests were held on 15 and 16 February, which resulted in violent clashes between the students and police. On the day, students blockaded roads and caused damage to school property. As such, violent unrest and localised travel disruptions cannot be discounted at the upcoming gatherings. As there is a threat of violent civil unrest during the protest events, clients are advised to avoid the affected area and all related gatherings. Furthermore, the anticipated protests are likely to cause significant travel disruptions in the affected area. Clients are thus advised to anticipate travel delays and should plan accordingly.

ESTONIA(TALLINN) - Nationalist groups, including the Nationalist Peoples' Unity Party, are set to hold an anti-immigration protest in Estonia's capital, Tallinn, on 24 February. Participants are set to gather at an unspecified location in Tammsaare park from 14:00 local time. An associated rally is also expected at Freedom Square between 16:30 and 17:30. Although the demonstration is expected to conclude peacefully, the possibility of isolated skirmishes cannot be discounted. Attendance at the demonstration is expected to be high; as such, localised disruptions are expected in the vicinity of the gathering. Persons in Tallinn are advised to avoid all large street protests and concentrations of security forces as a precaution. Clients are further advised to make allowances for possible travel disruptions.