SOUTHERN ASIA - At least 49 people have reportedly been killed and as many as 200 others injured as a result of a 7.5 magnitude earthquake which occurred near the Jurm district, in Afghanistan's Badakhshan province, on 26 October. At least 20 people were killed in Afghanistan, while 29 others are said to have been killed in northern Pakistan. Unconfirmed reports indicate that at least 12 girls were killed during a stampede at a school in Afghanistan's Takhar province. There have also been reports of infrastructural damages, the most significant of which was sustained by a building in Peshawar, Pakistan. The majority of the casualties and infrastructural damages were reported in northern Pakistan, particularly in more populous urban centers in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. The earthquake, which was felt in Lahore, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Peshawar, Quetta, Kohat and Malakand, has resulted in minor telecommunications disruptions in northern Pakistan. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) initially measured the earthquake at 7.7 magnitude and later lowered this to 7.5, with a depth of 213km. Emergency response services are still responding in the worst-affected areas; the casualty count may rise in the coming hours and days. Further aftershocks are expected in the near-term. These could exacerbate rescue and recovery operations in the affected region and lead to transport and utility disruptions. In addition, disruptions to amenities such as water, electricity, telecommunications and transport services cannot be discounted. Clients are advised to follow the directives of the local authorities. Due to the possibility of aftershocks, travelers are further advised to monitor local media and emergency broadcast channels for updates and advisories. Caution is advised in mountainous regions due to the threat of landslides. Only buildings that have been given the all-clear by local authorities should be entered. In the absence of official clearance, structures recently damaged by the earthquake should not be accessed. Additionally, all travel to Afghanistan, as well as Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, is advised against.

 
SCOTLAND - The Scottish Air Traffic Control Centre in the UK suffered an overnight technical failure on 25/26 October, causing disruptions to flight services at airports in Scotland. Airspace capacity has been restricted to manage air traffic volume while the technical failure is resolved. The worst-affected airports include, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Aberdeen and Prestwick. Further disruptions, including delays and cancellations, are anticipated. Once normal operations resume, it will likely take several hours for airport authorities to clear the backlog of flights. Clients intending to utilities air travel services in Scotland in the coming hours are advised to contact their travel provider or airline for updates on the status of their flight(s).

AUSTRALIA/CHINA - Qantas and China Eastern have extended their codeshare agreement and frequent flyer benefits on travel between Australia and China. From October 25, the airlines will co-locate their operations in Terminal 1 at Shanghai Pudong airport, providing passengers with improved connection times and "streamlined" check-in facilities. Qantas flyers will be able to access China Eastern's new lounge and more easily connect to 67 codeshare services operated by the Chinese carrier, including new destinations such as Changchun, Jinan and Wuhan. From November 1, Qantas passengers will be able to make codeshare bookings on China Eastern's double-daily Sydney-Shanghai and Melbourne- Shanghai services. A statement from Qantas said: "These services are complemented by Qantas' existing codeshare on China Eastern's Sydney Nanjing-Beijing services and new year-round Brisbane-Shanghai services beginning in November 2016." Members of Qantas' Frequent Flyer loyalty programme will "also have greater capacity to earn and redeem points as the partnership develops", the Australian airline added. Gareth Evans, Qantas CEO, said: "Our goal is to be the first choice for travel between Australia and China and customers will enjoy significant customer benefits as a result of the expanded partnership. "Co-location in Terminal 1 at Shanghai Pudong International Airport makes it easy for our customers to connect beyond Shanghai to the rest of China, and from cities across China through to Australia."

CANADA - A six-day general public workers' strike is expected to take place in Canada's Quebec province from 26 October. Health and education sector workers are expected to participate in the strike, which is expected to affect the Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean, Outaouais, Abitibi-Temiscamingue, Northern Quebec and Laurentian regions, and has been initiated by the Common Front union. Associated strikes are expected in the Monteregie region on 28 October, and Montreal and Laval on 29 October. The strikes have been organised in response to government-initiated reforms which would halt pay increases for two years, as well as increase the age of retirement and abolish bonuses. The Common Front represents at least 400,000 workers and the strike is likely to be well observed. Disruptions to state operations and public services should be anticipated over the strike period. The possibility of associated protests cannot be discounted. Such protests are usually peaceful, however, low-level confrontations between protesters and security forces are possible. Protests may occur near prominent government buildings, in public squares or on major thoroughfares and are likely to cause localised travel disruptions. Persons in the affected regions of Canada are advised to monitor local media for updates regarding the planned strike and the announcement of any associated protests. Clients should avoid all protests and related gatherings as a precaution. Localised travel disruptions in the affected areas should be expected.

BRAZIL - (Update) The political activist group, Vem Pra Rua, has called for a further demonstration in Brazil on 26 October to call for the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff. In Sao Paulo, a rally is scheduled to start at 18:00 near the Sao Paulo Museum of Art (MASP) on Avenida Paulista. The planned events are the latest linked to calls by activists and some members of the opposition for the removal of the current president over corruption allegations. Senior political personalities, including members of the ruling Workers Party, and the state oil firm, Petrobras, have been involved in a corruption scandal for a number of months which has sparked dozens of countrywide protests. These events have been largely peaceful. This trend is likely to continue; however, low-level confrontations and localised road travel disruptions are a possibility at all gathering points. Clients in Brazil should avoid all street protests as a standard precaution. Caution is advised in all planned protest areas.

 

FRANCE - A countrywide strike by workers in the legal sector, which began on 23 October, is expected to conclude at 18:00 local time on 28 October. Associated demonstrations are expected to be held outside court houses across the country at 14:00 on 26 October amid negotiations between the National Council of Bars (CNB) and government representatives. The CNB began the strike to oppose government-initiated reforms to legal aid in the country. The strike call is expected to be widely observed and disruptions to state operations, particularly those related to the Ministry of Justice, should be anticipated. Due to the ongoing grievances of legal workers, further associated demonstrations are expected in the short- to medium-term. Court houses remain the most likely flashpoint for further protests. The possibility of low-level confrontations between protesters and the security forces cannot be discounted. Localised disruptions should be anticipated in the vicinity of all demonstrations, particularly near court houses. Negotiations aimed at averting the strike are ongoing; as such, the strike may yet be suspended at short notice. Clients are advised to monitor local media for updates regarding the strike. All protests and related gatherings should be avoided as a precaution. Localised travel disruptions should be anticipated in the vicinity of all demonstrations.

 

BELGIUM - A security operation is currently underway in Flawinne, located in Belgium's Namur province, on 26 October. The operation was launched in response to reports of an unidentified assailant having attempted to forcibly enter the military barracks in the city. A short exchange of gunfire was also reported. There have been no immediate reports of casualties and the assailant remains at large. Further information regarding the assailant's motivation for the incident is currently unavailable. Heightened security is expected in the city in the coming hours, including the cordoning off of streets and an increased security force presence, particularly in and around the vicinity of the barracks. Associated travel disruptions and road closures should be expected. Persons in Flawinne should avoid the affected area until the situation is resolved. Clients in the city are advised to exercise heightened situational awareness and monitor local media for information on current and related security operations.

 

GREECE - Countrywide parades and related commemorative events are set to take place throughout Greece between 26 and 28 October as Ochi Day is celebrated countrywide. The day commemorates Greece's entry into the Second World War on 28 October 1940 and is often celebrated with military processions and student parades. Main commemorative events are expected in major urban centres, including in Athens and Thessaloniki, on 28 October, with preliminary events taking place on 26 and 27 October. In Thessaloniki, ongoing travel disruptions have been reported in the city on 26 October due to events attended by the president at the Hagios Demetrios, affecting travel on a number of roads, including Eleftheriou Venizelou and Peloponnese streets. In Athens and elsewhere, associated events are also expected during the aforementioned period; details regarding these are currently unavailable. An increased security force presence and associated security road cordons are expected to accompany all events. Although protests and demonstrations are not anticipated, the possibility of anti-government protest gatherings targeting official events cannot be dismissed. Localised travel disruptions are expected along parade routes and in the vicinity of event venues. Persons in Greece between 26 and 28 October are advised to avoid all related commemorative events and anticipate increased security measures, as well as localised traffic disruptions and restrictions, and should plan accordingly.

SOUTH AFRICA - (Update) Student-led protest action is expected to take place at Johannesburg's University of the Witwatersrand (known locally as Wits) in the Gauteng province of South Africa, on 26 October. The protests will be the latest in a recent spate of protests against the increasing costs of tertiary education. In response to the call for protests, the university issued a statement announcing that all classes at the institution will remain suspended. Protest action peaked on 23 October when the government issued a statement announcing that university fees will not be increased in 2016. Although this is likely to have placated protesters, there have since been additional appeals that tertiary education to be made free, among other demands. As such, further protests, albeit smaller in scale, are likely to continue. As a result, classes at the University of Cape Town in the eponymous city have been suspended, on 26 October. In addition, similar protest action focusing on universities in the country's major urban centres is possible over the coming days. Protests have been marred by small-scale clashes between participants and police and the possibility of further such incidents at the protests cannot be discounted. There exists an elevated risk of violence to bystanders in the vicinity of protests. Persons operating in South Africa's major urban centres, particularly in the immediate areas of tertiary institutions, are advised to monitor local media for updates and to avoid any related gatherings as a precaution. Recent unrest-affected areas should be avoided over the near-term and advisories from authorities should be followed.

COLUMBIA - The military recently issued a statement (cited in the media on 23 October) that operations against non-state armed groups in Colombia's northern Bolivar department had resulted in the death of nine members of the Luis Jose Solano Sepulveda front of the National Liberation Army (ELN). The recent confrontations occurred in the vicinity of the town of Morales. The Sepulveda grouping is thought to be connected to kidnapping and extortion activity in southern regions of Bolivar. The military has also recently launched operations in the nearby Antioquia department against Los Urabenos or Clan Usuga, a drug trafficking armed grouping. In addition, clashes between FARC and ELN against Los Urabenos have reportedly occurred with increasing regularity in northern Colombia since late September. The latest confrontation occurred in the Riosucio municipality on 18 October between FARC and Los Urabenos members.  The leftist ELN armed group continues to explore the possibility of peace talks with the Colombian government following successful talks between the government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the primary leftist armed grouping in Colombia. The deal with FARC is set to be completed by March 2016. In the interim, the ELN continues to attack and clash regularly with the military, particularly in rural areas. These groups and drug trafficking gangs are also involved in ongoing competition to control drug trafficking routes. Drug production and trafficking account for a significant amount of capital for these groupings.  Clients are advised against all non-essential travel to rural and remote areas of Colombia, specifically to areas outside of secure urban and tourist centres (Bogota, Cartagena, Barranquilla, Santa Marta, Medellin and Santiago de Cali). This advisory is in place due to high levels of insecurity, partly as a result of the presence of non-state armed groups and the associated risks of kidnapping, conflict and terrorism. Persons travelling in rural areas should consider travelling with a security escort.

INDIA - (Update) Security remains heightened amid state legislative elections in India's Bihar state. On 28 October, voting will proceed in Bhojpur, Buxar, Nalanda, Patna, Saran and Vaishali districts, while elections in Gopalganj, Paschim Champaran, Purvi Champaran, Muzaffarpur, Sheohar, Sitamarhi and Siwan are scheduled for 1 November. The districts of Araria, Darbhanga, Katihar, Kishanganj, Madhepura, Madhubani, Purnea, Saharsa and Supaul will vote on 5 November. Vote counting will begin on 8 November. As a precaution, over 50,000 additional security force personnel have been deployed to the administrative capital, Patna, and other key locations in the state. Thus far, the elections have proceeded without major incident. Nonetheless security remains elevated, primarily due to the ongoing Maoist insurgency across remote and rural areas of Bihar, as well as the states of Andhra Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal, for several decades. The Maoist rebels (also known as Naxalites) have been battling the central government and claim to represent the indigenous, 'landless' tribal peoples of rural India, particularly those that have not benefited from the country's economic development. The groups may seek to disrupt the voting process through small-scale gun and bomb attacks or acts of sabotage on government or election-related facilities. Such attacks pose a clear incidental threat to foreign nationals in the state over the election period. Clients are advised against non-essential travel to rural and remote areas of Bihar, as well as to a number of other states due to a Maoist insurgency. Persons currently in the state are advised to maintain a low profile and avoid all politically motivated rallies, polling stations and political party offices before during and after the polls. Clients are further advised to monitor local media closely for developments.

INDIA & PAKISTAN - The pro-separatist coalition, the All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC), has called for a shutdown (general strike) in India's northern Jammu and Kashmir state on 27 October. The shutdown coincides with the anniversary of the 1947 union of Jammu and Kashmir with India. Associated anti-India and pro-separatist demonstrations are also anticipated across the state on the day. Similar anti-India protest action is also expected in Pakistan. APHC forces in Pakistan, representing Azad Kashmir, have called for a demonstration outside of the Indian High Commission in the capital, Islamabad, on 27 October. The embassy is located in the G-5 area (diplomatic enclave). Related gatherings in Azad Kashmir, north eastern Pakistan, are anticipated. The shutdown is expected to be widely observed in Jammu and Kashmir and moderate to severe disruptions to business and transportation services should be anticipated. There is also a high risk of violence at all related gatherings in the state on the day. Clashes between separatists and the local security forces are regularly reported. The risk of violent unrest at related events in Pakistan, including in Azad Kashmir or Islamabad, is considered lower. The day may also be utilised by pro-separatist militants to conduct attacks against Indian state interests. Attacks, should they occur, will likely include low-level bombing or shooting attacks against Indian security force personnel in Jammu and Kashmir towns and cities or along the India-Pakistan border. Clients are advised against all non-essential travel to Jammu and Kashmir (except the eastern Ladakh region) due to ongoing threats of separatist conflicts and terrorism. Travellers are further advised against all non-essential travel to parts of Pakistan, including the Islamabad Capital Territory and Azad Kashmir, due to the threat of terrorism. Clients in Jammu and Kashmir should avoid all street protests, prepare for possible travel disruptions by contacting and reconfirming the status of scheduled services with their travel provider and avoiding all travel near Indian state facilities or personnel. Persons in Pakistan should avoid all related street protests in Islamabad and Azad Kashmir as a standard precaution.

 

GEORGIA - (Update) The resumption of protest action by opposition supporters is possible in Georgia's capital, Tbilisi, as a controversial court case resumes at the City Court on 26 October. The case involves private television channel, Rustavi 2, which has been linked to the opposition United National Movement (ENM). It is alleged that the government is attempting to use the courts to shut the station down, therefore infringing on media freedoms in the country. Protests over the court case were held on 19 and 22 October. The protests were largely peaceful in nature and well attended. Nonetheless, the threat of violent unrest at such gatherings cannot be discounted. Localised travel disruptions should be anticipated in the vicinity of the protest. Should any further protests take place on 26 October and the days that follow, they are likely to centre on the City Court or the capital's Freedom Square. Persons currently in or planning travel to Tbilisi in the coming days are advised to avoid all protests as a precaution, and to keep itineraries flexible to accommodate associated travel disruptions. Developments should be monitored.

 

TURKEY - At least seven suspected Islamic State (IS) militants were reportedly killed in a gunfight which took place amid a security operation in Turkey's Diyarbakir province on 26 October. The security operation took place in the Kayapinar district of Diyarbakir, and focused on a residential building, said to have been occupied by IS militants. At least two security force members were killed when explosives detonated in the vicinity of the residential compound. Further information is unavailable. This is the latest in a series of security incidents affecting Turkey's southern provinces in recent weeks. The spike in frequency of incidents follows the suspected IS bombing in Suruc on 20 July, and a renewed government offensive against Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) positions in south eastern Turkey and northern Iraq. Diyarbakir has been one of the worst-affected regions. Further such incidents are expected over the short- to medium-term, as well as Turkish government retaliation, including anti-terrorism operations and raids. Clients are advised against all non-essential travel to Diyarbakir. Clients in the province should obtain a full security risk assessment from their security provider. Travel should be conducted during daylight hours, on main roads and in the presence of a security escort. This is particularly relevant for persons travelling outside of primary urban centres.

 

PAKISTAN - Opposition political party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), is expected to hold a mass rally in the Faisalabad city of eastern Pakistan's Punjab province, on 28 October. The rally will be addressed by PTI leader, Imran Khan, as part of the group's campaign for the upcoming local government election. The rally will be held at the Dhobi Ghat Grounds on Kotwali Road, near the city centre. The PTI is the second largest political party in Punjab; as such, the rally is likely to be well supported. Significant traffic congestion should be anticipated on roads to and from the protest venue, as supporters arrive and depart from the event. Due to the large number of attendees anticipated, the possibility of stampedes cannot be ruled out; these pose a clear incidental threat. It is also likely that authorities will increase security measures ahead of and during the event, as the potential for clashes at the gathering cannot be ruled out. Clients are advised against all non-essential travel to Faisalabad and the wider Punjab province due to various security concerns. Persons operating in Faisalabad on 28 October should monitor local media closely for updates on the rally and for directives issued by authorities. All large public gatherings should be avoided as a precaution.

MALAWI - Civic movements will hold a protest march in Malawi's capital, Lilongwe, on 27 October. The protest rally is set to commence at the Parliament building roundabout from where hundreds of activists will march on the civic offices via the Capital Hotel roundabout.  The demonstration has been organised in protest to a recent government decision to withdraw employment contracts offered to an estimated 300 healthcare workers in the country. The rally itself is expected to be relatively peaceful and should conclude without any significant outbreaks of unrest. However, travel disruptions along the protest route is possible.  As a precaution, clients are advised to avoid the protest rally and to ensure itineraries remain flexible if travelling in and around the aforementioned locations.

SUDAN - Humanitarian organisations have claimed as many as 80 people have been killed in ongoing clashes between pro- and anti-government forces in Leer County, located in South Sudan's northern Unity State. Much of the violence occurred between 4 and 22 October; however, hostilities were reported to be ongoing in the region. Sporadic incidences of violence between forces loyal to incumbent president, Salva Kiir, and those aligned to former vice president, Riek Machar, continue to occur despite both parties entering into a ceasefire agreement in late August 2015. The terms of the ceasefire include the creation of a power-sharing government, the reinstatement of Machar as vice president and various other political and security reforms, illustrating that the agreement remains tenuous. Rebels loyal to Machar have rejected the peace deal and have vowed to continue their insurrection against the Kiir regime. Further acts of violence initiated by both government and rebel forces remain possible in Leer County and the wider Unity State. Due to the current uncertain security environment, clients are advised against all travel to South Sudan. Persons currently in or intending to travel to the country are advised to register their presence with their respective diplomatic representation and have a comprehensive contingency plan in place.