Market Summary
July 2014
Historically, the numbers show that markets typically run from November thru April, known as the strength period.

Conversely, the numbers also show that markets are typically flat to negative in the months of May through October, known as the "unfavorable season."

While this does not hold true 100% of the time, it has proven to be true the majority of the time since 1950.

However, so far this year, we have seen a reversal of sorts, with January through April being flat to negative, and May and June being positive.

Am I saying that the next four months will be negative, thus proving that selling in May and buying back in November works? NO. It very well may be that this year continues on a reversed course and the summer could be the positive months for the year.

In a Wall Street Journal article, Ned Davis Research found that since 1950, on average, stocks have gone up 8% from the beginning of October through the end of April but have increased only 1% from the beginning of May through the end of September. 
(E.S. Browning, "Danger for the Economy-Yes, Rally for Stocks Now, November 4, 2002)
Our Management Philosophy

Limit downside risk and provide clients a reasonable rate of return over a market cycle.


With over five decades of combined money management experience in South Texas, you can be sure that Walter and Anthony Reyna have seen it all. This father-son pair built and developed Walter J. Reyna Inc. on the importance of hard work and strategic planning and continue to implement these core values in their business today.


The Reynas believe that wealth accumulation and protection are the result of exceptional planning, not luck. Visit our website to learn more.


Walter J. Reyna, Inc.
5315 North McColl Road
McAllen, Texas 78504 

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Market Summary Continued
Also of note, from 1950 through 2001, there have been 34 declines of at least 10% in the Dow Jones
. In 31 of those cases, key portions of the pullback-often the brunt of the sell-off, occurred during the May-October period. (Nelson Freeburg, Formula Research Newsletter, August 21, 2001).

So here we are in July, historically a positive month after May and June. Will the "reverse" course hold true this year with a pullback in July? That is not something we nor anyone can answer. However, many experts (economists, hedge fund managers, etc) are calling for a market pullback of some extent, and we are in the camp that agrees with that assessment. While we still hold equity exposure, we have patiently been waiting for such a pullback as an opportunity to put more cash to work.

It is important to note: For all the media headlines of new highs, the Dow Jones is actually barely positive for the year. It is our opinion that this market rally is in its late stages, but there may still be some room for a final run.  


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For more information about your portfolio performance, please refer to your personalized statements or contact us. Regulatory restrictions prevent us from reporting personalized performance data in this newsletter. See below for important disclosures. 

Portfolio Insights
(1)The S&P 500 Index is representative of domestic markets and includes the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks.  Individuals cannot invest directly in any index and unlike investments; the S&P 500 Index does not incur management fees, charges, or expenses. (2) All Statistical information, investment category determinations, and economic data retrieved from Past performance is no guarantee of future results and all investment strategies involve the risk of financial loss. 


This publication is proprietary and limited to the sole use of Walter J. Reyna, Inc. clients.  Client portfolios are designed for the moderate investor but are actively managed on a monthly basis and may not follow traditional risk adjusted asset allocation models. Walter J. Reyna, Inc. maintains full discretion over said accounts and manages as deemed necessary. Clients with questions about the fees associated with their discretionary advisory account should refer to their advisory agreement. The information contained herein is for illustration purposes only. It is not necessarily complete, does not include client directed investments, and its accuracy is not guaranteed by Walter J. Reyna, Inc.  All clients should reference their periodic statements for accuracy. All clients needing additional information about holdings in the portfolio, including the objectives, risks, asset class and costs associated should refer to their respective prospectus. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by e-mail or telephone.  Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation nor investment advice, for the purchase of any future security referred to in the Advisory Newsletter.  Investments offered through Registered Representatives of Lincoln Financial  Securities Corporation, member SIPC.  Lincoln Financial Securities Corporation and Walter J. Reyna, Inc. are not affiliated.