Vol I, No. 4   

May 2013  

 

 

A monthly review for high net worth investors about how the quirks of human behavior 

drive investing...and what you can do about it

 

 

The Misbehaving Investor
     

 
About Us
Triad manages equity and balanced portfolios with a focus on absolute return and investor behavior. The firm is 100% employee owned.  New relationships begin at $1 million. 

Founded in 2008, Triad has $117 million of assets under management as of 3/31/13.  The Equity composite return, annualized and net of fees, since inception is 12.0% vs. 4.9% for the S&P 500 Index  (4/30/08 to 3/31/13).

To learn more, just reply to this message or contact:

Dave Hutchison, CFA
Managing Director
(949) 679-3991
dhutchison@triadim.com

Please visit us at:
www.triadim.com











 
 
Hello!

Recently, many investment managers have been binging on beverage and food companies.  In this month's issue, we talk about the difference between a safe company and a safe investment. 

All the best,

 

John Feb 5    

John Heldman, CFA

President
Triad Investment Management


This Bud's For You?

 

If you remember the 1970's disco era then you might recall "This Bud's for You," an advertising campaign for Budweiser beer. This American icon has since been sold to a Belgium-based brewer and the commercial retired. While this "Bud" may still be for you--personally I think the stuff tastes awful, but I'm kind of a beer snob--I'd be careful about imbibing the common stock of the parent company AB InBev. The beer may have lots of fizz, but the common stock could leave an investor feeling flat. Why's that? I'm glad you asked.

 

It might be traceable to individual investors. Or perhaps institutional investors. You know, the professionals who should know better. Or both. Here's how I see it. The market has levitated itself higher over the past few years and currently resides at all-time high levels. In Pavlovian fashion, the always-dependable individual investor--often dependably wrong on timing--has decided it's time to jump into the pool-the stock market. So, stock market mutual funds have been receiving their strongest inflows in years.

 

Now here's where it gets interesting. It's likely that individuals are now comfortable going back into the pool, but don't want to jump into the deep end. Instead, they prefer to enter the shallow end, walking down the stairs and holding onto the railing. While wearing a flotation device. So, it's possible investors have been buying "conservative-sounding" funds that focus on large, stable, consumer-oriented companies such as food and drinks. Or, perhaps investors have left it up to the professional money managers to decide where to invest the recent inflows.  

 

The fund managers, always mindful of risk, above all their own career risk, might decide it's better to be safe than sorry. Risk aversion could lead to investing the current inflows in Budweiser, McDonald's, Nestle, Diageo (Guinness, Captain Morgan rum, etc.) or Yum Brands (KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut). Can't go wrong here, right?

 

Wrong. The psychological scars from 2 massive market declines in the past 12 years have perhaps pushed investors into safer companies, raising their stock valuations. The irony is that a collection of fairly safe COMPANIES could turn out to be mediocre or even risky INVESTMENTS, as the company valuations are currently elevated, in our view.  

 

We constantly remind ourselves and our clients that it's important to separate business performance from common stock investment performance. A great company selling at a nosebleed valuation can be a lousy investment.  So while promotion may be necessary and desirable when it comes to selling beer, it's not a recipe for stock market success.

 

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Results are presented net of fees and include the reinvestment of all income.

     

2013 Triad Investment Management, LLC