Weekly Article -www.raymondjames.com
Mike Savage
Anyone who reads my articles every week has heard me say many times that we are subjected to 24 hour a day propaganda from the main stream media which attempts, and generally succeeds, at shaping our thoughts on almost everything. The only reason they get away with it is that we have become lazy and rely on them for information. Many, including myself, would call a lot of it misinformation.
While catching up with an old friend on Facebook I saw this posted on his timeline. "We are buried beneath the weight of information, which is being confused with knowledge, quantity is being confused with abundance and wealth with happiness". - Tom Waits
To me, this is a great saying that allows us to see that not all information is relevant or correct, having a lot of something doesn't create wealth- especially if what you have can be created with no effort or cost and that anyone relies on their wealth for happiness is in for a rude awakening- money comes and goes- be a good steward of what you are managing for now.
All of the discussion in the media is about the decrease in the price of a barrel of oil and how it will be great for the consumer. At first look, that makes sense. If you would have spent $50.00 filling your gas tank and now it only costs $40.00 you would have $10.00 more to spend on something else.
So what is missing in this example? The fact that the purchaser has no more income now than they did a few months ago. This person, unless he or she goes deeper into debt, can only spend what they earn. My point is that this person may buy an extra trinket or two but this will NOT increase economic activity in any way- it will just redirect the spending to another area. "Printed" money is not income nor collateral.
Of course, the talking points are that consumers will spend more because of the extra money not being spent on gas and oil products. Of course, in my opinion, this rhetoric has been discredited at least a bit because of the projections that black Friday sales were down 11% from last year.
I also spoke to a client who is President of a large high-end international designer and I made the comment that "The rich are still buying I hear" Her response to me was "Don't believe that! Everyone is waiting for Black Friday. They are already discounting at 40% - where do you go from there? It is scary out there!"
While I am enjoying putting less of my money into my gas tank I am also watching a slow motion train wreck taking place in oil companies and the price of crude oil. Of course, anyone who doesn't own any oil stocks or oil as a commodity may say "so what, the prices are lower and that is good for me".
Be careful making that assumption. It is believed that up to 20% of the high-yield bond market is linked in some way to the price of oil. The fact that oil has dropped from $110.00 per barrel to around $64.00 as I write this means that oil has had a 42% decrease in its perceived value over the last 6 months.
Think about that for a moment. Put yourself in the position of a banker or investor that lent these companies money to develop their businesses based upon the idea that the collateral backing this loan was oil at $100.00 per barrel. The collateral that you made the loan on is now 40% less than when you lent the money. Are you worried if you are in their shoes? If you are not yet, how about the profits that were projected to pay the interest, and eventually the principal, over time. They have now been reduced by a far larger margin because the fixed cost to produce oil and gas does not go down anywhere near the amount that these companies are losing in revenue because their product is selling at a deep discount.
My point here is that for a bank to make a loan there has to be collateral. This drop in the price of oil may make it a lot harder to finance new projects because of a lack of collateral going forward. If the price were to keep dropping you may start to see defaults in some of the weakest companies first and then even the better companies could be affected.
Just a quick note here that many better companies have hedged (locked in a price) for the next year or two and are profiting from that strategy as we speak.
To make my point, it has been reported on CNBC and other outlets that rig applications were down 40% in November, which shows that the price may already be affecting future activity. Keep in mind it is always easier to stop drilling when prices fall than it is to ramp up production when the price rises back because the supply and demand equation gets back into balance.
If you think that high yield bonds don't affect other assets this was reported today 12/9 on Bloomberg by Oliver Renick and Callie Bosh: "Global equities fell after China said lower-rated bonds can no longer be used for some short-term loans" (Bad collateral!) The Chinese stock market dropped over 5% on the news!
This move in oil is not normal. It is an extraordinarily large move in a short period of time in a commodity that we all use every day. The only historical precedent would be 2008 into 2009. Even during the oil shocks of the 1970s the price moves were not this violent.
There are many` stories out there about why the oil price has dropped so sharply but the main reasons that I believe to be true are that:
1) Oil is being used as a weapon to punish Russia and others by the USA
2) Saudi Arabia sees this as an opportunity to impair the USA's fracking industry and neutralize a great source of global competition while impairing the national budgets of their enemies like Iran, Syria and Russia. They are also looking to increase their market share.
3) The world economy is far weaker than the authorities care to admit and the price of oil is reflecting economic reality. Too much production and a lack of consumption. Cheap money enabled overcapacity to be built.
4) There is also a currency war taking place that has made the US dollar stronger- short term and is also making the price decline steeper.
A couple of questions that I believe have to be asked are these:
In a world that depends upon loan and debt growth to continue (many have called it "inflate or die" because without continued debt growth the system would implode under its own weight as we almost saw in 2008) can we afford to have a key part of our collateral to create that debt be trading at a 40% discount for very long? Another key question would be what do China, Russia, India, South Africa, Iran and others do to respond?
Are your assets set up to get through this or do you still have a 60/40 split and have your fingers crossed like the last 15 years of boom and bust?
Many of us think of war as dropping bombs and invading armies. Today, most warfare is taking place in commodity pits, Forex markets, cyber warfare rooms, etc. This is likely the reason for a lot of the volatility we are seeing in many markets. I suppose this is better than the mayhem we have seen in the past- hopefully these actions are not ultimately leading us there.
As always this is no time for complacency! Be Prepared!
Mike Savage, ChFC Financial Advisor
2642 Route 940 Pocono Summit, Pa 18346
(570) 730-4880
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12/12 Gold/Silver Consolidate Gains ... Expect More Explosiveness In Weeks Ahead - www.lemetropolecafe.com
Obviously, the featured market attraction remains the disappearing oil price. Down, down and further down it goes. While everyone realizes this is quite the boon for the U.S. consumer, the effects on our energy sector, and those financing it, could be catastrophic for a great number of people and firms. Thoughts from Dave from Denver...
Something is collapsing behind the scenes
I think it's related to oil derivatives. I've been reading that the big banks like Goldman are sitting on a lot of un-syndicated shale company bank debt. That stuff has almost no collateral value with oil at $60 when the breakeven price is $100. It has option value, which means the junk subordinated debt is worth ZERO.
A friend of mine - who has structured oil derivatives contracts in the past - and I think there's a big oil related derivatives melt-down going on.
Look at how the price of oil is literally in free-fall now. It's down well over $2 now just today.
I also bet Phibro is being forced to unload a lot of bad long positions.
There's a reason that they can't hold the stock market even on a day like yesterday when the buy-volume in the morning was insane.
To read the full article, please subscribe to Le Metropole Cafe.com.
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In The News Today - www.jsmineset.com
Posted December 12th, 2014 at 10:42 AM (CST) by Jim Sinclair
Jim Sinclair's Commentary
The derivative time bomb was placed in the bill by Republicans. It will make 2008 look like a side show if passed!
House passes full omnibus budget bill despite Democrat revolt - as it happened
Tom McCarthy and Alan Yuhas in New York
Thursday 11 December 2014 22.10 EST
House Speaker John Boehner supported the omnibus bill. Photograph: J. Scott Applewhite/AP
Summary
We're going to end our coverage for the night with a summary of the key events in Congress.
The House passed the "cromnibus" bill to fund the federal government for the next fiscal year, avoiding a government shutdown despite a rebellion by Democrats. The final votes tallied to 219-206.
The Senate has until midnight Saturday to take up the bill, thanks to a short-term resolution passed by the House to give it time. Senator Harry Reid said the chamber could take up the bill as early as Friday.
Democrats spent hours in disarray and angry revolt over the inclusion of two riders added to the bill at the 11th hour, one on campaign contribution limits and the second on finance. Members of the party were particularly enraged by the latter, which would insure derivative trading on Wall Street.
The House voted by unusually emotional speeches from Democrats furious with each other, with representatives decrying big banks and exhausted by gridlock in Congress.
Speaker of the House John Boehner rallied Republicans after a minor spat broke out in his own party, as hard right conservatives argued to use the bill as leverage on immigration.
The White House breathed a sigh of relief as a bill it backed passed with bipartisan support, though division among Democrats portends problems for the remainder of Barack Obama's presidency.
Senate majority leader Harry Reid has announced that the chamber will take up the omnibus bill tomorrow.
More...
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WNW 170- Budget Battle, CIA Torture Distraction, Madoff Convictions - usawatchdog.com
By Greg Hunter On December 12, 2014 In Weekly News Wrap-UpsBy Greg Hunter's USAWatchdog.com (Friday 12/12/14)
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USAWatchdog.com |
The $1 trillion budget that just passed the House of Representatives has something in it for everybody-to hate. Conservative Republicans hate that Obama Care and illegal immigration are funded and liberal Democrats hate the rollback of rules for Wall Street and political donations are dramatically increased. Lots of Republicans think they lost, and plenty of Democrats revolted against the President and they also think they lost. There have been big splits with Republicans in the past, but the new news is the Democrats are not at odds with each other and the President. I predicted that Democrats would vote against the President, and that is what is happening. I have to admit, both sides have good reason to hate what they hate. I think this is just a preview of what the next two years will be like.
The so-called CIA torture was out this week, and on the same day, Obama Care architect Jonathan Gruber testified about the lies he helped to concoct to get that bill passed. I never thought I would agree with Dick Cheney on anything, but I think this whole thing is, as he says, "full of crap." Democrats spent $40 million on this and did not talk to a single person, past or present, from the CIA. What kind of an "investigation" is that? I can't believe Democrats did not know about this interrogation program. The other thing is this was supposed to be really bad behavior, and some of it was, but there are no charges or prosecutions planned at all. It only endangers America. I'll bet the folks at the CIA are mad as hell. They didn't even get the courtesy of telling their side of the story in the report. Also, what about this Drone murder program that has killed thousands of people accidentally as collateral damage? Isn't murder as bad as torture? Also, American citizens were executed without charge or trial including a 16-year-old boy who was killed after his father was killed. Isn't murder at least as bad as torture? Where is the report on that?
So, why did the Democrats put on this show? I think it was to distract us from Professor Gruber who testified on Capitol Hill on the same day as the CIA report was released. USA Today finally covered the story in the main section of the paper. The paper had mentioned it on the opinion section in the past. Look at the softball headline, "Gruber sorry for 'insulting' comments on Obama Care." Insulting comments? He and Democratic leaders, including the President, produced a series of lies and fraud to get this passed. I call it the biggest policy fraud in the history of America. Here's another reason for CIA distraction, told by this headline from Infowars.com: "Congress Passes Bill Which Grants "Unlimited Access to Communications of Every American." This was a voice vote only, and it passed 325 to 100-outrageous! There is no 4th Amendment anymore, and this bill was not even debated. Lots of Republican voted for this, as well as Democrats. It was a bipartisan vote to trash our Constitutional rights!!! This is why I have always said the two parties just take turns ripping us off.
Finally, look at all the coverage USA Today gave to the Madoff employees who got sentenced this week in the biggest Ponzi fraud in history. Madoff got 150 years, and other folks at his firm got serious jail time. The Judge said these folks "should have stopped and reported the fraud." How about JP Morgan who helped Madoff with this fraud for years? JP Morgan, or I should say shareholders, paid $2.6 million to avoid criminal charges. They, too, "failed to report the fraud. I'll bet all the Madoff players would like to have paid a fine and walked! Of course, you will not hear that sort of comparison or analysis from USA Today. I am sure Gannett (USA Today's parent company) and the banking relationship it has with JP Morgan has nothing to do with the soft coverage JP Morgan gets.
Join Greg Hunter as he analyzes these stories and more in the Weekly
Video Link
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DC Pork Bill Passed, Torture Report Distraction, Congress Allows All NSA Spying |
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Rickards tells USA Watchdog's Hunter about manipulation of gold and everything else - www.gata.org
By cpowell
Created 2014-12-12 10:11
11:13a CET Friday, December 12, 2014
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
In what may be his best interview yet -- conducted by USA Watchdog's Greg Hunter -- fund manager and author James G. Rickards discusses manipulation of the gold market, which he describes as so obvious that the manipulators should be embarrassed, and secret interventions all over the place by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. Rickards says there will be gold "demand shocks" from China and India and that these may break the Western gold price suppression scheme. GATA gets a mention.
Rickards argues that the Fed has only two choices, depression or hyperinflation, a choice that is the consequence of its market manipulation. The U.S. government, Rickards said, should have let the country's failing banks fail, insuring the ordinary depositors and reorganizing the banks with clean balance sheets. The government didn't serve the public interest this way, Rickards adds, because of cronyism -- the links between the banking industry and government officials, something, he says, he saw in action when he was lawyer for Long-Term Capital Management during its bailout.
Hunter's interview with Rickards is 34 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZnyK2LdJAk&feature=youtu.be
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Industrial silver use will jump 27% by 2018 - CRU - www.mineweb.com
Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Wednesday , 10 Dec 2014
RENO (Mineweb) -
More and more applications for silver are being invented, discovered, and, importantly, commercialized, said a new report from the Silver Institute and CRU Consulting, stoking the growth potential from several of the most important industrial silver applications.
Total industrial silver demand is forecast to reach nearly 680 million ounces annually by 2018, according to the "Glistening Particles of Industrial Silver" report scheduled for public release Wednesday morning.
Half of this growth will occur in the electrical and electronics sector, but additional demand will be due to growth in the use of silver in batteries, Ethylene Oxide (EO) in the chemical sector, anti-bacterial uses of silver, the automotive industry, silver coated bearings, and the brazing alloys/solders sector.
"Over the past decade, physical silver demand has seen strong growth, of which industrial demand for silver, has contributed the largest share," said CRU. Loss from the photography sector have been offset by increasing demand from other sectors as well as new applications, such as silver-zinc batteries, clothing and hygiene.
Continue reading on Mineweb.com.
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Silver to see 11 million ounce deficit in 2015 - HSBC - www.mineweb.com
Author: Lynette Tan
Posted: Thursday , 11 Dec 2014
Fastmarkets.com -
The demand and supply balance for silver is likely to swing from a three million ounce surplus in 2014 to an 11 million ounce deficit in 2015, said HSBC in a report focusing on the outlook of silver.
The deficit comes mainly from a reduction in mine production, lower scrap supplies as well as a halt to government sales. Consequently, the small but persistent deficit should limit further price declines.
Despite the deficit forecast, the bank is keeping its average price for silver outlook at $17.65 for 2015 and expects the precious metals to trade in the price range between $15 to $21 per ounce.
This is all very nice, but in the second paragraph above, the author talks about "a halt to government sales". As Ted Butler has pointed out, no government has owned any silver for many, many years, so I'm not sure about the accuracy of the data he's using. Secondly, deficits mean nothing to the price. Look at platinum and palladium, which have both been in supply/demand deficits for several years now. It has meant nothing. The same with silver, because until JPMorgan et al decide, or are the given the word, prices are going nowhere---and only the willfully blind, or those whose jobs depend on them not seeing it, won't admit it. Einstein was right. The only thing that exceeds the amount of hydrogen in the world, is human stupidity. I thank Casey Research's Jeff Clark for sharing it with us.
Continue reading on Mineweb.com.
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Crude Crash Set To Continue After Arab Emirates Hint $40 Oil Coming Next - www.zerohedge.com
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/14/2014 19:24 -0500
In space, no one can hear you scream... unless you happen to be Venezuela's (soon to be former) leader Nicolas Maduro, who has been doing a lot of screaming this morning following news that UAE's Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei said OPEC will stand by its decision not to cut crude output "even if oil prices fall as low as $40 a barrel" and will wait at least three months before considering an emergency meeting.
Continue reading on Zero Hedge.com.
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Did The American Consumer Just Unwittingly Call The Top? - www.zerohedge.com
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/14/2014 12:42 -0500
Hey! Who said economics can't be fun?! How is it not absolutely brilliant that in the face of a collapsing shale oil industry - or at least, for the moment, of its financing model -, and the worst week for the Dow since 2011, the Thomson Reuters/UofMichigan consumer sentiment index shows American consumers are more optimistic than they've been in 8 years, and that "more consumers volunteered good news than bad news than in any month since 1984?? 1984! How does one trump that as a contrarian signal? And that I don't mean to sound funny: that is serious.
Continue reading on Zero Hedge.com.
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Austria Considers Repatriating Its Gold - www.zerohedge.com
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/12/2014 13:11 -0500
And just like that, the list of countries who want to repatriate their gold just increased by one more, because after Venezuela, Germany, the Netherlands, sorry Switzerland, and rumors of Belgium, we now can add Austria to those nations for whom the "6000 year old barbarous relic bubble" is more than just "tradition."
From Bloomberg:
Austrian Central Bank Mulls Relocating London Gold: Standard
The Austrian state audit court says central bank should address concentration risk of storing 80% of its gold reserves with the Bank of England, Standard reports, citing draft audit report. Court advises central bank to diversify storage locations, contract partners.
Austrian central bank reviewing gold storage concept, doesn't rule out relocating some of its gold from London to Austria: Standard cites unidentified central ank officials. Austria has 280 tons gold reserves, according to 2013 annual report. Austrian Audit Court Will Review Nation's Gold Reserves in U.K.
And from derStandard.at (Google translated):
The gold reserves of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) and their deposits in the UK and in Switzerland are a recurring theme in political discussions. Especially like the Freedom require relocation to Austria, the example of the Deutsche Bundesbank in mind, who want to move their gold by 2020 half of them to Germany.
In Austria, the Court has adopted in its recent OeNB examination of the issue of gold. In its draft report he gives the OeNB diverse recommendations on the way. One of the key points: Given the "high concentration risk in the Bank of England" advise the examiner to "rapid evaluation of all possibilities of a better dispersion of the storage locations". Not only the parties to be diversified, but it should also come to the "actual spread of the storage locations".
Continue reading on Zero Hedge.com.