800-822-8080


Monday December 15, 2014
tableTable of Contents
From David's Desk: Quotes of the Day
The Holter Report: One Foot on a Banana Peel ...The Other in a Grave!
Andy Hoffman's Daily Thoughts: Supplemental Cartel Manipulation Proof, The End of History's Greatest Fraud
Featured Articles: Mike Savage, Le Metropole Cafe, Greg Hunter, GATA, Mineweb, Zero Hedge Market Recap
About Miles Franklin 

Send us your questions!

We will hand pick a few questions each week for our writers to answer every Wednesday.

Send an e-mail to info@milesfranklin.com
OR
Submit questions via Twitter to @MilesFranklinCo using hashtag
#askmilesfranklin

Follow us on Twitter

davidFrom David's Desk
David Schectman

In 1972 I went to work for Target Stores at a salary of $9,000. Doesn't sound like much, but here is what things cost then.

New House                              $27,600

Average Income                      $11,859

New Car                                  $3,853

Average Rent                          $165 per month

Tuition at Harvard                  $2,800 per year

Movie Ticket                           $1.75

Gasoline                                  $0.55 per gallon

First Class Stamp                     $0.08 each

Granulated Sugar                    $0.65 for 5 pounds

Milk                                         $1.20 per gallon

Ground Coffee                        $0.99 per pound

Bacon                                      $0.83 per pound

Eggs                                         $0.45 per dozen

Fresh Hamburger                   $0.64 per pound

Fresh Baked Bread                  $0.25 per loaf

 

In 1983 I went to work for Investment Rarities, my first job in the precious metals industry. In my first full year (1984) I earned over $75,000.

New House                              $82,600

Average Income                      $21,073 per year

New Car                                  $8,577

Average Rent                          $335 per month

Tuition to Harvard                  $8,195

Movie Ticket                           $2.50

Gasoline                                  $1.17 per gallon

First Class Stamp                     $0.20 each

Granulated Sugar                    $0.90 for 5 pounds

Milk                                         $2.19 per gallon

Ground Coffee                       $2.35 per pound

Bacon                                      $1.50 per pound

Eggs                                         $0.55 per dozen

Fresh Hamburger                    $1.05 per pound

Fresh Baked Bread                  $0.85 per loaf

 

That's what inflation looks like in my rear view mirror. Gold has held up very well, relative to these items, even at today's low price. In 1972 the average price for gold was $58.42. In 1983 the average price was $424. It makes more sense to compare gold to these items, which we all use, rather than the heavily "manipulated" CPI. Thought you might find this interesting.

Here is a graph of the Gold Spot Price:  

  

 

 _____________________________

 

 

Quotes of the Day

Based upon deposit/withdrawal patterns in the world's largest silver ETF, SLV, a pattern of physical silver accumulation emerges. In the big silver price take down beginning in May 2011, some 60 million ounces of silver were redeemed from the trust as investors reacted to sharply falling prices by selling shares. The silver sold at this time was, obviously, bought by someone else; as there must be a buyer for every ounce sold. Who better a buyer than the world's largest short holder at that time, JPMorgan? And over the past three and a half years, JPMorgan, by continuing to hold, albeit at a declining rate, the largest short silver holder becomes the de facto logical buying candidate.

Additionally, over the past 4 years, an unusually large amount of Silver Eagles have been produced and sold by the U.S. Mint, some 160 million ounces, in a steadily declining price environment. Nearly as many Silver Eagles were sold by the U.S. Mint over the past 5 years as were sold in the previous 23 years of the program. For the past four years, the Mint struggled to keep up with demand for Silver Eagles and frequently resorted to rationing coins. However, consistent reports from the retail dealer community indicated a fall off in broad retail demand for Silver Eagles.

The only plausible answer to this conundrum of record Silver Eagle sales and tepid retail demand was that a large entity, or entities, were behind the buying demand. Based upon the above, JPMorgan appears to me to the big buyer, accounting for 60-75 million coins over the past four years. All told, based upon SLV transaction, Silver Eagles and other forms of silver that could have been purchased, it is my guesstimate that JPMorgan could have accumulated 300 million oz of physical silver over the past four years; or three times what the Hunt Brothers were said to have bought by 1980. And please remember - there was a heck of a lot more silver in the world in 1980 than exists today; approximately 3 billion oz back then versus close to a billion oz today.

- Silver analyst Ted Butler, Butler Research, December 12, 2014

 

Here we see a chart of gold, which has already bettered its blue 50-day moving average. Now the target is the red 200-day moving average, which stands at 1270. Sit tight with your gold positions and allow the trend to have its way. The only ingredient needed now is patience -- the patience to allow the trend to run its course.

- Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters

 

 _____________________________

 

 

Today's Featured Articles

Mike Savage (The lower price of oil does NOT mean more money will be spent to help the economy)

LeMetropole Caf� (I think there's a big oil related derivatives melt-down going on.)

Jim Sinclair (The derivative time bomb was placed in the bill by Republicans. It will make 2008 look like a side shows if passed!)

Greg Hunter (Greg Hunter: Budget Battle, CIA Torture Distraction, Madoff Convictions)

 

GATA (Rickards tells USA Watchdog's Hunter about manipulation of gold and everything else)

 

Mineweb (Industrial silver use will jump 27% by 2018 - CRU) (Silver to see 11 million ounce deficit in 2015 - HSBC)

Zero Hedge (Crude Crash Set To Continue After Arab Emirates Hint $40 Oil Coming Next) (Did The American Consumer Just Unwittingly Call The Top?) (Austria Considers Repatriating Its Gold)

 

 

 

Sincerely,

 


David Schectman
holterThe Holter Report
bill holter
Bill Holter

One Foot on a Banana Peel ...The Other in a Grave!

December 15, 2014

 

Never before have I seen so many pieces of information to be put together in the span of just one week.  This past week we were bombarded with connectable dot after connectable dot, nearly each and every one of them on their own would have caused a panic 30 years ago.  I say "30 years ago" because this was before the 1987 crash, this was before anything and everything, nailed down or not ...was levered many times over in what eventually became an inflation party.  30 years ago, black was not white, wrong was not right and "debt" was still in its infancy of being money.  Fast forward to present day and we now have a monetary system with one foot on a banana peel and the other in a grave!

 

Let me list what I saw this past week as some very ugly dots to be connected, by no means is this list complete but I think you'll get the point by the time you are done reading.  Early in the week, China announced changes to their collateral rules for the credit quality necessary for corporate bonds to be accepted as collateral (now only AAA and AA bonds can now be used).  This caused a 5.6% drop the following day in their stock market which did ripple around the world to other stock markets.  This is significant because without a doubt it was an act of tightening credit and will directly decrease the liquidity available for the Chinese exchange.  This is not a one day event as CNBC would lead you to believe.

 

Next, oil has outright crashed in price and finished the week under the recently unthinkable number of $60... and the repercussions have just started to be felt.  The 130 year old firm Phibro announced they will be closing up shop while oil exporting currencies (including the ruble) were destroyed.  There had been discussion over the last several weeks regarding the future of the shale industry, this discussion is now ended in that no one can say "this will blow over" any longer.  $100's of billions of extended credit is now impaired and this credit market has crashed to yields now over 10%.  The crash in oil all by itself is enough to ruin the financial system but by no means was alone this past week.

 

The next dot to connect was the spending package passed by Congress.  As Zerohedge reported Presenting the $303 Trillion in Derivatives That US Taxpayers Are Now on the Hook For, the U.S. public was sold down the river.  Just a month after the Republicans won both houses of Congress, they have now allowed the banks to stuff their derivatives portfolios under the FDIC umbrella.  Over $300 trillion worth!  Prior to this, the FDIC insured over $6 trillion worth of bank deposits with a whopping $54 billion reserve...  How could any "true American" have voted for this?  Even a calculator with no batteries can understand this will unequivocally bankrupt the country, yet this law is passed little over one month after an election by the American public put trust in the Republicans as their "last hope?"  Was this passed by mistake or do you think they knew what they were doing?  Was Obamacare passed by mistake?  Comically, the architect of Obamacare testified to Congress after calling the American public stupid ...a traitor testifying to traitors, they should all be strung up for TREASON!  Whether you know it or not, Congress just called the American public foolish also by passing this traitorous law.

 

I asked in the above paragraph if you thought they "knew what they were doing?"  The Treasury Dept. this past week put out to a bid request to supply "survival packs" for their 3,800 bank examiners.  For what possible reason could bank examiners need a survival "fanny pack?"  Does the Treasury know something they are not telling us?  I would also like to ask why the Chicago Fed is "bricking up" their ground floor windows.  Are they expecting something?  Rioting maybe?

 

If all of the above wasn't enough for you, don't worry, there is more ...and even bigger news!  Early in the week, Russia announced they are moving up the testing for their newly proposed currency clearing system.  It had been planned for a May 2015 testing phase followed by going live, this is now moved up to Dec. 15th, yes, this Monday!  Why?  Why are they moving up the start date?  Presumably they also know something or see the immediate need to be able to clear funds for trade outside of SWIFT.  If you think this one through, Russia will have the ability to facilitate ANY trade between ANY two or more parties while excluding the use of dollars ...and the prying eyes of America!  This will mean whatever sanctions on Russia will be lessened, it also means SWIFT is no longer the only game in town.  Maybe the BRICS et al will no longer care, or need to use SWIFT?  No, not "maybe," definitely.

 

So far I haven't even mentioned gold but don't worry, we got two huge pieces of news.  In case you had not noticed, gold/silver were the best performing asset class for a truly dismal financial week.  First, Austria is now considering repatriating all of her gold.  I mentioned last Monday in "The Mother of all Bank Runs" that Austria could be next in line, and if so, the stage would then be set for a "northern euro" leaving the southern basket cases to fend for themselves.  I plan to write about this tomorrow so I will leave this for a separate piece.  While the ramifications are very wide, the "intent" seems to be very narrow, I will explain this tomorrow.

 

The other big gold news and one that can be categorized in the "do you think they know something" category came from CME/COMEX.  They will begin with "collars" for nine different metals, including silver and gold.  The collars will begin to kick in and trading will cease if gold moves $100 or silver $3 with ultimate daily collars of $400 and $12.  I won't bore you with the specifics, more importantly you must wonder "why?" and "why now?"  How often have we seen $100 moves in gold, much less $400?  I believe it has been only one time that gold moved over $100 in a day.  We have seen $3 moves (almost all down) in silver but these were almost exclusively during evening trade sessions and almost always on Sunday nights.  Does CME really see $12 moves in silver coming?  Again, "are they expecting something?" we don't know about ...or maybe they are afraid silver could go to zero in less than two days trading and don't want to see that happen (I believe if it was possible, this would have already been facilitated)?  Or, more likely, are they expecting huge volatility and upside moves they would like to retard and slow down?  Add this one to the category "they know something and are readying for it!" 

 

So there you have it, we had a disastrous week for financial assets and huge news, most of which points to sides being chosen and "official readying" for upcoming events.  I might add that a 6th Hindenburg omen was spotted on Thursday which most probably bodes very poorly for the stock market(s).  With all of these events lining up, one might think the U.S. public is in a somber mood.  But no, consumer sentiment numbers reported Friday saw a huge upswing ...either the public is not very bright or the reported numbers are bogus ...or both?

 

Let me finish by saying this, the market action is clearly showing we have entered a credit contraction.  Any credit contraction is a death sentence to a system which is overleveraged and already standing on a banana peel.  The markets are trying to say this at the same time "official" moves are portraying something very big is afoot.   Central banks are now collectively "running the bank".  If one had no prior knowledge of anything financial prior to this week, what was learned this week alone is enough to know something is very wrong, something very bad is going to happen and it is going to happen very soon.  I would suggest if your plans are not already finalized, do not wait until the new year to do so!

 

 

hoffmanAndy Hoffman's Daily Thoughts

 Supplemental Cartel Manipulation Proof 

December 15, 2014

 

As Zero Hedge would put it, "presented without comment." Except, of course, this article from earlier today (Sunday afternoon)...

 

 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-14/sales-silver-american-eagles-rise-record-high-second-year-row 

 

Yes, 77 "Sunday Night Sentiment" attacks in the past 78 weeks - whilst no other market materially moved. Actually, tonight took a full two hours before the typical Cartel raid; with oil sitting at the same -1% level as it opened at two hours ago, as opposed to most weeks, when the attacks start within 15 minutes of the ultra-thin Sunday night open (if that long).

 

Think these monsters aren't terrified? Amazing how much more intense the attacks became in the weeks leading up to the Swiss vote; let alone, now that the END GAME of global economic collapse is upon us.

 

Why am I writing this - on Sunday night, as Diana is cooking dinner? To let you know just how desperate TPTB have become to prevent the "Achilles Heel of the Financial World" - i.e., silver, from doing NOW what it must inevitably do, sooner or later...

  

   

  

 

 

  

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And remember, gold is up for the year - by 1% in the U.S., and on average, 5% in the rest of the world (as you'll see in my next article). And as for silver, demand has NEVER been higher - or the outlook for supply EVER so weak.

 

 

PROTECT YOURSELF, and do it NOW!

 

Call Miles Franklin at 800-822-8080, and talk to one of our brokers.  Through industry-leading customer service and competitive pricing, we aim to EARN your business.


  

______________________________ 


 

The End of History's Greatest Fraud

December 12, 2014

 

On my weekly podcast with Kerry Lutz, we discussed the expanding malaise taking over the American mindset; if you will, an ominous shift in the zeitgeist of free spending that has characterized our entire lifetimes. In other words, the horrific 11% decline in "Black Friday" weekend shopping was not only characteristic of an economy in freefall, but a growing state of fear and apathy.

 

Even the MSM is not writing incessantly about holiday shopping, with only the government's "economic lie machine" still trying to convince us otherwise - per the embarrassingly blatant "seasonal adjustment" they utilized to enable November's retail sales report to "beat expectations" yesterday morning. Frankly, it's difficult to believe anyone believes such propaganda anymore, which is why the government's only remaining "perception weapon" is the expanding manipulation of financial markets. To that end, the "chasm of destruction" between the reality of an expanding DEPRESSION and a record "Dow Jones Propaganda Average" has become so wide, it won't be long before all three components of the "evil tripod" of perception alternation - i.e., money printing, market manipulation and propaganda - are permanently disabled.

 

Think about it as reality is setting in everywhere. How many holiday cards have you received this year? In our household, we have received just four compared to perhaps 15-20 in a typical year. How many Christmas shopping commercials have you seen on television? You know, with "Jingle Bells" and the Nutcracker music playing? How many phone calls have you received, letting you know how people are doing? It's just a feeling, but I sense more and more people are knee-deep in financial concerns; and thus, the supposed "common knowledge" that holiday shopping must be a major event is rapidly dying.

 

As for the cause of this sentiment shift - which we assure you is much worse outside the U.S., where "reserve currencies" can't mask reality as well - look no further than the fiat Ponzi scheme that has created the largest most global debt edifice ever. In other words, "history's greatest fraud." Oh, TPTB are still trying to blow it up further - by publishing fraudulent retail sales numbers to instill "confidence," for instance. Or, for that matter, offering 3% down mortgages through the Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae zombies and trillions of taxpayer subsidized, undischargable student loans. However, few are biting at the bait anymore - as debt saturation has clearly been reached and the economy too weak to even support hope anymore for the "99%." And again, for all the secular Americans reading this, the rest of the world is in MUCH worse shape growing worse each day.

 

At the Miles Franklin Blog, we have discussed the inevitability of economic collapse incessantly, with only the when and how remaining to be answered. Well, "the big one" hasn't yet arrived; but for the first time, its inevitability is starting to appear imminent. And unless something dramatically shifts in the coming weeks, the most likely catalysts will be one we've spoken of ad nauseum - i.e., Greece; and another, the "black swan" of collapsing oil prices that is annihilating both global economic activity and government finances.

 

This morning, the Greek stock and bond markets are falling again with the former down an incredible 20% in the past three days alone. And as for oil, WTI sits just over $59/bbl. as I write, with "lesser grades" like Bakken crude more than $10/bbl. lower, and Canadian heavy closer to $20/bbl. lower. In other words, nearly back to 2008's crisis levels, and the real pain hasn't even started. Frankly, even I am scared by how rapidly the economy is likely to plunge, given that an entire third of S&P 500 capital expenditures occur in the energy industry; which, consequently, has been the only industry to generate net job growth over the past seven years. Yes, all other industries have been net job negative during the so-called "recovery" six years of ZIRP, QE and stock market support has produced; and now that oil prices are freefalling, even the "island of lies" that is U.S. employment data is being isolated. Heck, we're already seeing the employment blowback, per last week's surge in continuing job claims to a four-month high. In fact, U.S. oil well drilling permits plunged an astonishing 40% in November alone - which, by the way, ended with WTI crude at $70/bbl. compared to $59/bbl. this morning.

 

As for financial "markets," yesterday's "desperation tutorial" described TPTB's incredibly blatant efforts to "calm" markets Wednesday afternoon - when oil prices really started plunging, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield commenced a new downside assault on the 2.2% "line in the sand" we noted two months ago. After all, per yesterday's MUST HEAR Audioblog, if these ugly market trends can't be reversed before Wednesday's FOMC meeting, the Fed will be forced to not only refrain from removing "considerable time" from their policy statement, but potentially hint at further QE stimulus. If this occurs, methinks the three-year Cartel orchestrated PM "bear market" will decidedly be over. And as for the rest of the world's financial markets, don't be surprised if this is the "temporary exception" to the reality of 2008 revisited - i.e., government-supported stock markets - rapidly dies on the vine.

 

Actually, if you thought Wednesday's manipulations were bad, they didn't even hold a candle to yesterday's! All day, interest rates were under pressure, along with oil prices that continue to plunge. However, the PPT was hell-bent on recouping Wednesday's stock losses, given that the Dow is NOT ALLOWED to fall two days in a row. They even managed to generate a massive equity "buying panic" early on - even in energy stocks, whilst energy bonds continued their Lehman-like collapse. And when a scorching 30-year Treasury bond auction was priced at 1:00 PM EST, they still put every ounce of their manipulative efforts into capping gold and silver's rises - for the second straight day, with prototypical DLITG or "Don't Let it Turn Green" algorithms - and preventing 2.2% on the 10-year bond from being materially breached on the downside. By day's end, PMs were roughly unchanged, the Dow 60 points higher and the 10-year yield 2.19%, with oil below $60/bbl. However, this morning, as I write at 7:50 AM EST, oil is barely above $59/bbl., stock futures are down sharply, PMs are again roughly unchanged and the 10-year Treasury yield is at....drum roll please...2.12%; as clearly, the Fed is losing this war.

 

The day is still young, and we eagerly wait to see if TPTB can reverse these ugly trends before the weekend. If not, any remaining "hope" of FOMC hawkishness will disintegrate, giving rise to talk of "deflation fears" and the potential timing of "QE4." Throw in the wildcard of Wednesday's Greek "snap elections" - which will likely give rise to fears of a "GrExit" from the Euro currency; and you have the ingredients of a global financial meltdown that could - no, will - make 2008 look like a "walk in the park."

 

Remember, this time around the Central banks have no dry powder and governments no trust from their citizens. And thus, with the supply/demand balance of physical gold and silver so tight, it wouldn't take much to instigate a buying mania. We can only warn you to prepare for what's coming; and frankly, precious metal purchases are only part of what you need to do to maximize your ability to survive. Hopefully, you'll act to protect yourself quickly; and if your gold and silver purchases are amongst your precautions, we humbly ask you to call Miles Franklin at 800-822-8080 and give us a chance to earn your business.

 

PROTECT YOURSELF, and do it NOW!

 

Call Miles Franklin at 800-822-8080, and talk to one of our brokers.  Through industry-leading customer service and competitive pricing, we aim to EARN your business.

 

 

featuredFeatured Articles

Weekly Article -www.raymondjames.com

Mike Savage

 

Anyone who reads my articles every week has heard me say many times that we are subjected to 24 hour a day propaganda from the main stream media which attempts, and generally succeeds, at shaping our thoughts on almost everything. The only reason they get away with it is that we have become lazy and rely on them for information. Many, including myself, would call a lot of it misinformation.

 

While catching up with an old friend on Facebook I saw this posted on his timeline. "We are buried beneath the weight of information, which is being confused with knowledge, quantity is being confused with abundance and wealth with happiness". - Tom Waits

 

To me, this is a great saying that allows us to see that not all information is relevant or correct, having a lot of something doesn't create wealth- especially if what you have can be created with no effort or cost and that anyone relies on their wealth for happiness is in for a rude awakening- money comes and goes- be a good steward of what you are managing for now.

 

All of the discussion in the media is about the decrease in the price of a barrel of oil and how it will be great for the consumer. At first look, that makes sense. If you would have spent $50.00 filling your gas tank and now it only costs $40.00 you would have $10.00 more to spend on something else.

 

So what is missing in this example? The fact that the purchaser has no more income now than they did a few months ago. This person, unless he or she goes deeper into debt, can only spend what they earn. My point is that this person may buy an extra trinket or two but this will NOT increase economic activity in any way- it will just redirect the spending to another area. "Printed" money is not income nor collateral.

 

Of course, the talking points are that consumers will spend more because of the extra money not being spent on gas and oil products. Of course, in my opinion, this rhetoric has been discredited at least a bit because of the projections that black Friday sales were down 11% from last year.

 

I also spoke to a client who is President of a large high-end international designer and I made the comment that "The rich are still buying I hear" Her response to me was "Don't believe that! Everyone is waiting for Black Friday. They are already discounting at 40% - where do you go from there? It is scary out there!"

 

While I am enjoying putting less of my money into my gas tank I am also watching a slow motion train wreck taking place in oil companies and the price of crude oil. Of course, anyone who doesn't own any oil stocks or oil as a commodity may say "so what, the prices are lower and that is good for me".

 

Be careful making that assumption. It is believed that up to 20% of the high-yield bond market is linked in some way to the price of oil. The fact that oil has dropped from $110.00 per barrel to around $64.00 as I write this means that oil has had a 42% decrease in its perceived value over the last 6 months.

 

Think about that for a moment. Put yourself in the position of a banker or investor that lent these companies money to develop their businesses based upon the idea that the collateral backing this loan was oil at $100.00 per barrel. The collateral that you made the loan on is now 40% less than when you lent the money. Are you worried if you are in their shoes? If you are not yet, how about the profits that were projected to pay the interest, and eventually the principal, over time. They have now been reduced by a far larger margin because the fixed cost to produce oil and gas does not go down anywhere near the amount that these companies are losing in revenue because their product is selling at a deep discount.

 

My point here is that for a bank to make a loan there has to be collateral. This drop in the price of oil may make it a lot harder to finance new projects because of a lack of collateral going forward. If the price were to keep dropping you may start to see defaults in some of the weakest companies first and then even the better companies could be affected.

 

Just a quick note here that many better companies have hedged (locked in a price) for the next year or two and are profiting from that strategy as we speak.

 

To make my point, it has been reported on CNBC and other outlets that rig applications were down 40% in November, which shows that the price may already be affecting future activity. Keep in mind it is always easier to stop drilling when prices fall than it is to ramp up production when the price rises back because the supply and demand equation gets back into balance.

 

If you think that high yield bonds don't affect other assets this was reported today 12/9 on Bloomberg by Oliver Renick and Callie Bosh: "Global equities fell after China said lower-rated bonds can no longer be used for some short-term loans" (Bad collateral!) The Chinese stock market dropped over 5% on the news!

 

This move in oil is not normal. It is an extraordinarily large move in a short period of time in a commodity that we all use every day. The only historical precedent would be 2008 into 2009. Even during the oil shocks of the 1970s the price moves were not this violent.  

 

There are many` stories out there about why the oil price has dropped so sharply but the main reasons that I believe to be true are that:

 

1)      Oil is being used as a weapon to punish Russia and others by the USA

2)      Saudi Arabia sees this as an opportunity to impair the USA's fracking industry and neutralize a great source of global competition while impairing the national budgets of their enemies like Iran, Syria and Russia. They are also looking to increase their market share.

3)      The world economy is far weaker than the authorities care to admit and the price of oil is reflecting economic reality. Too much production and a lack of consumption. Cheap money enabled overcapacity to be built.

4)      There is also a currency war taking place that has made the US dollar stronger- short term and is also making the price decline steeper.

 

A couple of questions that I believe have to be asked are these:

 

In a world that depends upon loan and debt growth to continue (many have called it "inflate or die" because without continued debt growth the system would implode under its own weight as we almost saw in 2008) can we afford to have a key part of our collateral to create that debt be trading at a 40% discount for very long? Another key question would be what do China, Russia, India, South Africa, Iran and others do to respond?

 

Are your assets set up to get through this or do you still have a 60/40 split and have your fingers crossed like the last 15 years of boom and bust?

 

Many of us think of war as dropping bombs and invading armies. Today, most warfare is taking place in commodity pits, Forex markets, cyber warfare rooms, etc. This is likely the reason for a lot of the volatility we are seeing in many markets.  I suppose this is better than the mayhem we have seen in the past- hopefully these actions are not ultimately leading us there.

 

As always this is no time for complacency! Be Prepared!

 

Mike Savage, ChFC Financial Advisor

2642 Route 940 Pocono Summit, Pa 18346

(570) 730-4880

 

______________________


12/12 Gold/Silver Consolidate Gains ... Expect More Explosiveness In Weeks Ahead - www.lemetropolecafe.com

Obviously, the featured market attraction remains the disappearing oil price. Down, down and further down it goes. While everyone realizes this is quite the boon for the U.S. consumer, the effects on our energy sector, and those financing it, could be catastrophic for a great number of people and firms. Thoughts from Dave from Denver...

Something is collapsing behind the scenes

I think it's related to oil derivatives. I've been reading that the big banks like Goldman are sitting on a lot of un-syndicated shale company bank debt. That stuff has almost no collateral value with oil at $60 when the breakeven price is $100. It has option value, which means the junk subordinated debt is worth ZERO.

A friend of mine - who has structured oil derivatives contracts in the past - and I think there's a big oil related derivatives melt-down going on.

Look at how the price of oil is literally in free-fall now. It's down well over $2 now just today.

I also bet Phibro is being forced to unload a lot of bad long positions.

There's a reason that they can't hold the stock market even on a day like yesterday when the buy-volume in the morning was insane.

To read the full article, please subscribe to Le Metropole Cafe.com.

______________________


In The News Today - www.jsmineset.com

Posted December 12th, 2014 at 10:42 AM (CST) by Jim Sinclair

 

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

The derivative time bomb was placed in the bill by Republicans. It will make 2008 look like a side show if passed!

House passes full omnibus budget bill despite Democrat revolt - as it happened

Tom McCarthy and Alan Yuhas in New York

Thursday 11 December 2014 22.10 EST

 

House Speaker John Boehner supported the omnibus bill. Photograph: J. Scott Applewhite/AP

Summary

We're going to end our coverage for the night with a summary of the key events in Congress.

The House passed the "cromnibus" bill to fund the federal government for the next fiscal year, avoiding a government shutdown despite a rebellion by Democrats. The final votes tallied to 219-206.

The Senate has until midnight Saturday to take up the bill, thanks to a short-term resolution passed by the House to give it time. Senator Harry Reid said the chamber could take up the bill as early as Friday.

Democrats spent hours in disarray and angry revolt over the inclusion of two riders added to the bill at the 11th hour, one on campaign contribution limits and the second on finance. Members of the party were particularly enraged by the latter, which would insure derivative trading on Wall Street.

The House voted by unusually emotional speeches from Democrats furious with each other, with representatives decrying big banks and exhausted by gridlock in Congress.

Speaker of the House John Boehner rallied Republicans after a minor spat broke out in his own party, as hard right conservatives argued to use the bill as leverage on immigration.

The White House breathed a sigh of relief as a bill it backed passed with bipartisan support, though division among Democrats portends problems for the remainder of Barack Obama's presidency.

Senate majority leader Harry Reid has announced that the chamber will take up the omnibus bill tomorrow.

More...

______________________


WNW 170- Budget Battle, CIA Torture Distraction, Madoff Convictions - usawatchdog.com

 

By Greg Hunter On December 12, 2014 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups

By Greg Hunter's USAWatchdog.com  (Friday 12/12/14)

 

USAWatchdog.com
The $1 trillion budget that just passed the House of Representatives has something in it for everybody-to hate. Conservative Republicans hate that Obama Care and illegal immigration are funded and liberal Democrats hate the rollback of rules for Wall Street and political donations are dramatically increased. Lots of Republicans think they lost, and plenty of Democrats revolted against the President and they also think they lost. There have been big splits with Republicans in the past, but the new news is the Democrats are not at odds with each other and the President. I predicted that Democrats would vote against the President, and that is what is happening. I have to admit, both sides have good reason to hate what they hate. I think this is just a preview of what the next two years will be like.

 

The so-called CIA torture was out this week, and on the same day, Obama Care architect Jonathan Gruber testified about the lies he helped to concoct to get that bill passed. I never thought I would agree with Dick Cheney on anything, but I think this whole thing is, as he says, "full of crap." Democrats spent $40 million on this and did not talk to a single person, past or present, from the CIA. What kind of an "investigation" is that? I can't believe Democrats did not know about this interrogation program. The other thing is this was supposed to be really bad behavior, and some of it was, but there are no charges or prosecutions planned at all. It only endangers America. I'll bet the folks at the CIA are mad as hell. They didn't even get the courtesy of telling their side of the story in the report. Also, what about this Drone murder program that has killed thousands of people accidentally as collateral damage? Isn't murder as bad as torture? Also, American citizens were executed without charge or trial including a 16-year-old boy who was killed after his father was killed. Isn't murder at least as bad as torture? Where is the report on that?

So, why did the Democrats put on this show? I think it was to distract us from Professor Gruber who testified on Capitol Hill on the same day as the CIA report was released. USA Today finally covered the story in the main section of the paper. The paper had mentioned it on the opinion section in the past. Look at the softball headline, "Gruber sorry for 'insulting' comments on Obama Care." Insulting comments? He and Democratic leaders, including the President, produced a series of lies and fraud to get this passed. I call it the biggest policy fraud in the history of America. Here's another reason for CIA distraction, told by this headline from Infowars.com: "Congress Passes Bill Which Grants "Unlimited Access to Communications of Every American." This was a voice vote only, and it passed 325 to 100-outrageous! There is no 4th Amendment anymore, and this bill was not even debated. Lots of Republican voted for this, as well as Democrats. It was a bipartisan vote to trash our Constitutional rights!!! This is why I have always said the two parties just take turns ripping us off.

Finally, look at all the coverage USA Today gave to the Madoff employees who got sentenced this week in the biggest Ponzi fraud in history. Madoff got 150 years, and other folks at his firm got serious jail time. The Judge said these folks "should have stopped and reported the fraud." How about JP Morgan who helped Madoff with this fraud for years? JP Morgan, or I should say shareholders, paid $2.6 million to avoid criminal charges. They, too, "failed to report the fraud. I'll bet all the Madoff players would like to have paid a fine and walked! Of course, you will not hear that sort of comparison or analysis from USA Today. I am sure Gannett (USA Today's parent company) and the banking relationship it has with JP Morgan has nothing to do with the soft coverage JP Morgan gets.

Join Greg Hunter as he analyzes these stories and more in the Weekly

Video Link

DC Pork Bill Passed, Torture Report Distraction, Congress Allows All NSA Spying
DC Pork Bill Passed, Torture Report Distraction, Congress Allows All NSA Spying

______________________


Rickards tells USA Watchdog's Hunter about manipulation of gold and everything else - www.gata.org

By cpowell

Created 2014-12-12 10:11

11:13a CET Friday, December 12, 2014

 

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In what may be his best interview yet -- conducted by USA Watchdog's Greg Hunter -- fund manager and author James G. Rickards discusses manipulation of the gold market, which he describes as so obvious that the manipulators should be embarrassed, and secret interventions all over the place by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. Rickards says there will be gold "demand shocks" from China and India and that these may break the Western gold price suppression scheme. GATA gets a mention.

Rickards argues that the Fed has only two choices, depression or hyperinflation, a choice that is the consequence of its market manipulation. The U.S. government, Rickards said, should have let the country's failing banks fail, insuring the ordinary depositors and reorganizing the banks with clean balance sheets. The government didn't serve the public interest this way, Rickards adds, because of cronyism -- the links between the banking industry and government officials, something, he says, he saw in action when he was lawyer for Long-Term Capital Management during its bailout.

Hunter's interview with Rickards is 34 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZnyK2LdJAk&feature=youtu.be

 

______________________


Industrial silver use will jump 27% by 2018 - CRU - www.mineweb.com

Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Wednesday , 10 Dec 2014

 

RENO (Mineweb) - 

More and more applications for silver are being invented, discovered, and, importantly, commercialized, said a new report from the Silver Institute and CRU Consulting, stoking the growth potential from several of the most important industrial silver applications.

Total industrial silver demand is forecast to reach nearly 680 million ounces annually by 2018, according to the "Glistening Particles of Industrial Silver" report scheduled for public release Wednesday morning.

Half of this growth will occur in the electrical and electronics sector, but additional demand will be due to growth in the use of silver in batteries, Ethylene Oxide (EO) in the chemical sector, anti-bacterial uses of silver, the automotive industry, silver coated bearings, and the brazing alloys/solders sector.

"Over the past decade, physical silver demand has seen strong growth, of which industrial demand for silver, has contributed the largest share," said CRU. Loss from the photography sector have been offset by increasing demand from other sectors as well as new applications, such as silver-zinc batteries, clothing and hygiene.

Continue reading on Mineweb.com.

***

Silver to see 11 million ounce deficit in 2015 - HSBC - www.mineweb.com

Author: Lynette Tan
Posted: Thursday , 11 Dec 2014

 

Fastmarkets.com - 

The demand and supply balance for silver is likely to swing from a three million ounce surplus in 2014 to an 11 million ounce deficit in 2015, said HSBC in a report focusing on the outlook of silver.

The deficit comes mainly from a reduction in mine production, lower scrap supplies as well as a halt to government sales. Consequently, the small but persistent deficit should limit further price declines.

Despite the deficit forecast, the bank is keeping its average price for silver outlook at $17.65 for 2015 and expects the precious metals to trade in the price range between $15 to $21 per ounce.

This is all very nice, but in the second paragraph above, the author talks about "a halt to government sales".  As Ted Butler has pointed out, no government has owned any silver for many, many years, so I'm not sure about the accuracy of the data he's using.  Secondly, deficits mean nothing to the price.  Look at platinum and palladium, which have both been in supply/demand deficits for several years now.  It has meant nothing.  The same with silver, because until JPMorgan et al decide, or are the given the word, prices are going nowhere---and only the willfully blind, or those whose jobs depend on them not seeing it, won't admit it.  Einstein was right.  The only thing that exceeds the amount of hydrogen in the world, is human stupidity.  I thank Casey Research's Jeff Clark for sharing it with us.

Continue reading on Mineweb.com.

 

______________________


Crude Crash Set To Continue After Arab Emirates Hint $40 Oil Coming Next - www.zerohedge.com

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/14/2014 19:24 -0500

 

In space, no one can hear you scream... unless you happen to be Venezuela's (soon to be former) leader Nicolas Maduro, who has been doing a lot of screaming this morning following news that UAE's Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei said OPEC will stand by its decision not to cut crude output "even if oil prices fall as low as $40 a barrel" and will wait at least three months before considering an emergency meeting.

Continue reading on Zero Hedge.com.

 

***

Did The American Consumer Just Unwittingly Call The Top? - www.zerohedge.com

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/14/2014 12:42 -0500

 

Hey! Who said economics can't be fun?! How is it not absolutely brilliant that in the face of a collapsing shale oil industry - or at least, for the moment, of its financing model -, and the worst week for the Dow since 2011, the Thomson Reuters/UofMichigan consumer sentiment index shows American consumers are more optimistic than they've been in 8 years, and that "more consumers volunteered good news than bad news than in any month since 1984?? 1984! How does one trump that as a contrarian signal? And that I don't mean to sound funny: that is serious.

 

Continue reading on Zero Hedge.com.

 

***

Austria Considers Repatriating Its Gold - www.zerohedge.com

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/12/2014 13:11 -0500

 

And just like that, the list of countries who want to repatriate their gold just increased by one more, because after Venezuela, Germany, the Netherlands, sorry Switzerland, and rumors of Belgium, we now can add Austria to those nations for whom the "6000 year old barbarous relic bubble" is more than just "tradition."

From Bloomberg:

Austrian Central Bank Mulls Relocating London Gold: Standard

The Austrian state audit court says central bank should address concentration risk of storing 80% of its gold reserves with the Bank of England, Standard reports, citing draft audit report. Court advises central bank to diversify storage locations, contract partners.

Austrian central bank reviewing gold storage concept, doesn't rule out relocating some of its gold from London to Austria: Standard cites unidentified central  ank officials. Austria has 280 tons gold reserves, according to 2013 annual report. Austrian Audit Court Will Review Nation's Gold Reserves in U.K.

And from derStandard.at (Google translated):

The gold reserves of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) and their deposits in the UK and in Switzerland are a recurring theme in political discussions. Especially like the Freedom require relocation to Austria, the example of the Deutsche Bundesbank in mind, who want to move their gold by 2020 half of them to Germany.

In Austria, the Court has adopted in its recent OeNB examination of the issue of gold. In its draft report he gives the OeNB diverse recommendations on the way. One of the key points: Given the "high concentration risk in the Bank of England" advise the examiner to "rapid evaluation of all possibilities of a better dispersion of the storage locations". Not only the parties to be diversified, but it should also come to the "actual spread of the storage locations".

Continue reading on Zero Hedge.com.

 

 


recapMarket Recap
Friday December 12, 2014




aboutAbout Miles Franklin
Miles Franklin was founded in January, 1990 by David MILES Schectman.  David's son, Andy Schectman, our CEO, joined Miles Franklin in 1991.  Miles Franklin's primary focus from 1990 through 1998 was the Swiss Annuity and we were one of the two top firms in the industry.  In November, 2000, we decided to de-emphasize our focus on off-shore investing and moved primarily into gold and silver, which we felt were about to enter into a long-term bull market cycle.  Our timing and our new direction proved to be the right thing to do.

We are rated A+ by the BBB with zero complaints on our record.  We are recommended by many prominent newsletter writers including Doug Casey, David Morgan, Future Money Trends and the SGT Report.

The views and opinions expressed in this e-mail are solely those of the original authors and other contributors. These views and opinions do not necessarily represent those of Miles Franklin Ltd., the Miles Franklin Ltd. staff, and/or any/all contributors to this site.  

Readers are advised that the material contained herein is solely for informational purposes. The author and publisher of this letter are not qualified financial advisors and are not acting as such in this publication. The Miles Franklin Report is not a registered financial advisory and Miles Franklin, Ltd., a Minnesota corporation, is not a registered financial advisor. Readers should not view this publication as offering personalized legal, tax, accounting, or investment-related advice. All forecasts and recommendations are based on opinion. Markets change direction with consensus beliefs, which may change at any time and without notice. The information and data contained herein were obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation, warranty or guarantee is made that it is complete, accurate, valid or suitable. Further, the author, publisher and Miles Franklin, Ltd. disclaims all warranties, express, implied or statutory, including, but not limited to, implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, accuracy and non-infringement, and warranties implied from a course of performance or course of dealing. The reader accepts information on the condition that errors or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The author, publisher, Miles Franklin, Ltd, and their respective officers, directors, owners, employees and agents are not responsible for errors or omissions or any damages arising from the display or use of such information. The author, publisher, Miles Franklin, Ltd, and their respective officers, directors, owners, employees and agents may or may not have a position in the commodities, securities and/or options relating thereto, and may make purchases and/or sales of these commodities and securities relating thereto from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Authors of articles or special reports contained herein may have been compensated for their services in preparing such articles. Miles Franklin, Ltd. and/or its officers, directors, owners, employees and agents do not receive compensation for information presented on mining shares or any other commodity, security or product described herein. Nothing contained herein constitutes a representation, nor a solicitation for the purchase or sale of commodities or securities and therefore no information, nor opinions expressed, shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any commodities or securities mentioned herein. Investors are advised to obtain the advice of a qualified financial, legal and investment advisor before entering any financial transaction.

 

IN NO EVENT SHALL AUTHOR, PUBLISHER, MILES FRANKLIN, LTD, AND THEIR RESPECTIVE DIRECTORS, OFFICERS, EMPLOYEES AND AGENTS BE LIABLE FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, PUNITIVE, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL, CONSEQUENTIAL, EXEMPLARY OR OTHER DAMAGES ARISING OUT OF OR IN ANY WAY CONNECTED WITH ANY INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN OR IN ANY LINK PROVIDED HEREIN, PRODUCTS AND SERVICES ADVERTISED IN OR OBTAINED HEREIN, OR OTHERWISE ARISING OUT OF THE USE OF SUCH INFORMATION, WHETHER BASED ON CONTRACT, TORT, NEGLIGENCE, STRICT LIABILITY OR OTHERWISE.
Copyright � 2014. All Rights Reserved.