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Wednesday November 19, 2014
tableTable of Contents
Miles Franklin Q & A: Gold and Silver Market Suppression Scheme
From David's Desk: Quotes of the Day
The Holter Report: Why Don't You Believe Them?
Andy Hoffman's Daily Thoughts: He Doth Protest Too Much - The "Best" Of Thomas Jordan
Interview with SGT Report
Featured Articles: Le Metropole Cafe, King World News, Ed Steer, Zero Hedge, Kitco
Market Recap
About Miles Franklin 



 

Q: I have a question for your Q&A day on Wednesday.  Leonard Melman seems to think it may be a very long time before gold and silver recover and then go up substantially.  What do you think of his analysis?  

 

David Schectman's Answer:

 

Checking our records, I see that you have been receiving our newsletter since 2009 and spoke with one of our senior brokers in 2013. One would think that, after all this time and exposure to Andy Hoffman, Bill Holter and myself, you would already know the answer to the question. Our views are very clear and consistent.

 

You are not asking for a guaranty here, you are asking for our "opinion" of Melman's views. I don't follow his work but did a bit of checking. It appears he is primarily involved with exploration and junior mining company analysis.

 

Melman's view is not one in isolation. The thing is, I am not sure what he bases his views on. The Elliott Wave people have their own reasons. So do the deflationists, like Harry Dent. I don't know where he is coming from but I can assure you, regardless of how he got to his conclusion, all of us at Miles Franklin strongly disagree.

 

It's one thing to take the position that gold and silver could fall further. Anything is possible in the short-term, but to think that gold and silver will languish for a prolonged period of time is, in our opinion, laughable.

 

We base our views on the following: The Fed continues to recklessly expand the money supply, which will prove to be very inflationary. Supply is contracting while demand is increasing. To assume that gold and silver will be in a long-term decline goes against these strong supply/demand fundamentals. It totally ignores the reams of information that strongly imply the prices are low, not due to fundamentals, but due to market manipulation.

 

Do you think that Richard Russell, Jim Sinclair, Bill Murphy, Ted Butler, David Morgan, Eric Sprott, Rick Rule, Gerald Celente, Bill Fleckenstein, Paul Craig Roberts, Jim Rickards, Jim Willie and Doug Casey, to name but a few highly creditable folks all got it wrong? And to that list you can add Andy Hoffman, Bill Holter and myself. We have a combined 60+ years' experience in the precious metals industry.

 

Look, anything is possible. I give Melman a 5% chance of being right, because anything can happen. But I tell you straight that my son Andy, Bill Holter, Andy Hoffman and I all have close to 100% of our portfolios in gold, silver and platinum. And a few mining shares. That does not mean that we will be proven correct, but we sure think so and put our money where our mouth is.

 

I guess it is disappointing to think that you have been exposed to our excellent commentary for nearly five years and still allow Melman to make you feel so uneasy about the future of gold and silver. I spend nearly $250,000 a year to publish our newsletter, whose goal is to help educate you (and all our readers) and give you comfort in a difficult marketplace. We can't control short-term pricing, but we can and do explain what is happening and why - and where this will all end up. I find it hard to believe that anyone who has read our material for several years would even bat an eye at Melman's viewpoint. You should know better; you read the views of most of the people I mentioned above, whom I frequently quote for our readership. I am certain that all of them would tell you that Melman's view is preposterous!

 

Be sure and read the excellent article titled "Forget Ebola, Worry About the Coconut Virus" featured in the LeMetropole Caf� section below. There is an easy-to-understand explanation of how inflation really works. It will be enlightening to many of you. Even if you already understand the concept of inflation, the analogy used is wonderful. I enjoyed it immensely!

 

Q: Does all this news in the media about the banks being fined for collusion relate to the commodity manipulation? If so, is it the same cartel you are always mentioning?

 

Bill Holter's Answer:

 

We don't "know" the answer to this question but we can make a pretty good educated guess that the answer is "yes".  Our contention has been for years that gold and silver are manipulated while the mainstream would label us as "kooks" forever even thinking this.  Now, after LIBOR, munis, Treasuries, HFT trading etc. etc. being discovered as snake pits, our contentions carry more weight.  The point is this, gold and silver are kryptonite to the central bank's fiat monies, are we to believe that these two precious metals are the ONLY assets on the planet that are not manipulated?  Common sense tells you that yes, the same bad characters doing dirty work elsewhere are the ones in the gold and silver market suppression schemes.  The masses will figure this out AFTER they no longer have the ability to procure metals in my opinion.

 

Q: I have a question for your Q&A day on Wednesday.  I just watched a video with Randy Smallwood the CEO of Silver Wheaton recorded on November 12, 2014. In the video he said that he is fine with silver at these prices. Even at these prices he has margins in excess of 70% because his cost of production is around $4.50/oz. This is the second time i saw a video from a CEO of a major silver producer which stated that his cost of production was around $5 an ounce. If these guys aren't lying, which i doubt they are, these cost of production figures are way below what i heard at the Silver Summit. These prices may not be all in costs but they are low enough that they kept silver below $9/oz for the twenty year period of 1985-2005. I was under the assumption that we would start to show shortages at these prices. However when i get costs of production of around $5/oz. right from the CEO's of major producers I could see we could be a lot lower than $15/oz. for many years to come. Without having a financial collapse why couldn't we have silver prices at or below $15 for another twenty years?

 

Andy Hoffman's Answer:

 

Randy Smallwood is NOT "fine" with prices here, he is simply playing the marketing mantra that because SLW is a royalty company and not an actual producer, they are "immune" to lower prices.  LOL.

 

For one, SLW's earnings are 100% correlated to silver prices.  And their cost is NOT $4.50/oz., as that is just their variable cost per ounce.  They also paid billions for the rights to $4.50/oz. silver - and sometimes, the production they pay for is a lot less than expected, or non-existent.  In the case of the Pascua Lama Project, for example, SLW paid Barrick $625 million for the right to part of the mine's silver - which as it turns out, may never be produced - leaving SLW $625 million out in a litigation nightmare with ABX.  Moreover, when base metal prices decline, the mines SLW buys silver by-product from can be shut-in - which is exactly what occurred in 2008, when SLW nearly went bankrupt.

 

SLW may not have its "own" operating risk, but with the royalty model, it takes on the operating risks of dozens of mines - and still has 100% exposure to silver prices.

 

Frankly, if Smallwood is "fine" with rigged silver prices trading below the cost of production, causing his stock price to do this, he should be fired.

 

 

 

 

davidFrom David's Desk
David Schectman

Quotes of the Day

 

The real message in [Friday's Commitment of Traders Report were] the extraordinary changes among the commercial traders. On the plunge to four year silver price lows over the past two reporting weeks, the raptors [the Commercial traders other than the 'Big 8'] sold 9,700 long contracts and the 'Big 8' bought back more than 6,300 short contracts (with the Big 4's share of that being 4,000 contracts). Never have the commercials, usually thick as thieves, gone in such different directions. Heretofore, it was always the commercials behaving as the three musketeers - you know, all for one, and one for all. Not this time.

 

From the data, here's what I think occurred. The big commercial shorts (JPM) knew that some raptors were stretched thin on margin on a massive long position in silver that totaled 42,400 contracts two weeks ago. When the price of silver suddenly plunged an additional two dollars, the margin calls were overwhelming for a number of the raptors and they were forced to liquidate almost 10,000 of their long contracts. A two-dollar adverse move on 10,000 contracts means coming up with $100 million on, quite literally, a moment's notice. If you don't have the $100 million to deposit immediately, you are sold out immediately.

 

Since the biggest beneficiaries of the price plunge (apart from the technical funds, which, no matter what, are not running the show like the commercials) were the biggest shorts (including JPMorgan), which bought back 6,300 shorts at immense profits; it stands to reason that these big shorts orchestrated the whole damn thing. Otherwise, I suppose you would have to believe that the commercials are such clean good guys that someone from above rewarded them. Looking at the almost daily settlements for price manipulation [in other areas] by the big banks, it's not possible they are innocent good guys in any way.

- Silver analyst Ted Butler, Butler Research, November 15, 2014

 

______________________


Today's Featured Articles

 

LeMetropole Caf� (Forget Ebola, Worry About the Coconut Virus)

 

King World News (Richard Russell: Stock Market Crash, Gold & Eventual Hyperinflation)(David Stockman On Monetary Breakdown & Skyrocketing Gold)

 

Ed Steer (The demand for gold has become ferocious.�  Silver demand is even greater)

 

Zero Hedge (Ukraine Admits Its Gold Is Gone: "There Is Almost No Gold Left In The Central Bank Vault") (Japan's Last Stand - Portent Of Keynesian Collapse) (Eric Sprott: Global Gold Demand Is Overwhelming Supply)

 

Kitco (At Least 50% Of Your Portfolio Should Be In Gold: NYT Best Seller Robert Ringer)



Sincerely,

David Schectman
holterThe Holter Report
bill holter
Bill Holter

Why Don't You Believe Them?

November 19, 2014

 

David Cameron, Prime Minister of Britain wrote an article which was published in The Guardian yesterday.  The headline "Red lights are flashing on the global economy" in my opinion is very true what he followed the headline with was not.  In this article which was penned after leaving the G-20 summit, Mr. Cameron went on to mostly tell the truth about the global woes but was very careful to exclude Great Britain.  To me, this sounded like some sort of "whistle stop" campaign about how well Britain is being managed and their risk is the possibility of being tipped over by global events.

 

"Well managed" he purports?  This is not even close to being so and the "austerity" he speaks of is only a pipe dream and no longer even an option.  I would ask him a few questions were he willing to take any, such as "didn't Britain try austerity for 6 months or so only to find out it cannot be implemented without an economic and financial implosion?"  I might even ask him how he feels now that Britain sold 60% of their gold reserves at the worst prices possible since 1979 ...but that wouldn't be a gentlemanly question would it.

 

In any case, let's look at the headline ..."red lights are flashing on the dashboard of the global economy."  This is true nearly all over the world.  As a matter of fact, the "engine" for global growth just announced one of their diesel tanks as empty.  It's been discovered that China's "shadow banking system" had a huge increase in bad debt.  Understand that this is not the "core" banking system but this did add to China's growth acting as an afterburner of hot and easy credit.  A reversal of this credit will surely drag on the economy and will probably even surprise the complacent as to where it shows up.  "Where" being further news on hypothecated, re hypothecated and re re re hypothecated commodities.  We still don't know fully how the warehouse frauds uncovered earlier in the year will fall, a decline in credit from the shadow banking system can only reveal more fraud!

 

So David Cameron "covered his butt" with the headline, when the time comes he can now say "I told you so, you should have listened to me."  Unlike David Cameron who is still in office and trying to cover his reputation, there are two ex U.S. government officials who are and have been telling you the truth for years, Paul Craig Roberts and David Stockman.  Mr. Roberts was Asst. Treasury Secretary from 1975-1978 and David Stockman was the Director of OMB under Reagan.  When I read or first heard their opinions I can remember thinking "WOW, this guy is from the government and telling the truth!".  This is still so today and both of these men seem to be getting louder and much more urgent in their warnings.  Neither hedges nor flip flops in their opinions which I respect as much as I do their logic.  They have been and are telling you the absolute truth and doing so in my opinion out of pure "character!"  They both say "it's over" from a mathematical standpoint, I don't understand why anyone even questions what they say?

 

Another ex "federal" employee who has been boisterous lately is Alan Greenspan.  I have recently written how he is out selling books and trying to clean up his legacy.  Part of this has been to admit gold in fact is money, it is better than any fiat ever and that there will be "great financial difficulties" at some point.  Mr. Roberts and Mr. Stockman, unlike Alan Greenspan, are not out on the speaking circuit trying to clean up their legacies, they are firmly and cleanly intact.  They I believe are trying to help anyone who would listen while Alan Greenspan's motive in my opinion is one of "don't blame me, I warned you."

 

There are others of course but these four will suffice for what I am trying to get across to you.  "Why don't people believe them?"  Yes I know, if you are reading this then you probably do believe them but why don't the masses?  I have an opinion on this, I think most people know "something" is wrong, VERY wrong.  Many don't really know what it is and wouldn't really understand it unless handed to them on a platter.  Most people are not "wired" to understand economics or finance.  Some, many, are just too worn down by daily life to bother "figuring it out" while others (MANY) just want to bury their heads in the sand ...because the truth is just too ugly to bare! 

 

I do understand the concept of the masses being slowly and methodically being "dumbed down" over the years.  Notice I used the word "methodically" which in my mind includes "intent."  I say this because a knowledgeable and well informed population is hard to pull the wool over their eyes ...a dumbed down population on the other hand will (has) stand by and accept things the "way they are."  This is important because our "money" system is fake and fraudulent, sadly only one or two out of 100 in the West understands this.  The rest of the world still "gets it" which is why Western vaults are being raided by Eastern buyers. 

 

Once all is said and done, the majority in the West will finally get it but unfortunately this will be too late.  I have always said that "one second too late is equal to a lifetime," unfortunately this is the case.  "We" cannot save the masses as they will not listen for whatever their personal reasons.  What we can do is try.  I would urge anyone reading this to pass my writings along to friends and loved ones that you care about.  When you come across Paul Craig Roberts or David Stockman's writings or anyone else "who makes sense" ...forward it!  Yes I know, you have tried this and either lost friends or became the "black sheep fool of the family."  All you can do is try!  Time is very short now, we know this because the Achilles Heel, gold supply has become very tight.  We know this because even career politicians like David Cameron have told you.  We know this because many Western nations have already proposed and signed "bail ins" where bank balances will be stolen upon the financial collapse.  We know this for so many various reasons, not the least of which is your own common sense. 

 

To finish, I want to link to Mr. Roberts and Stockman's latest work.  Does it sound like things are a "little bad?"  Or does it sound like the system is hopelessly broken?  Please understand this if nothing else, Stockman and Roberts have no ax to grind whatsoever. They worked in government during a time when "serving your country" was still the mindset.  Please read their latest, David Stockman On Monetary Breakdown & Skyrocketing Gold and A Global House Of Cards - Paul Craig Roberts these are their honest opinions!  It's over ...and only a matter of time until our world reflects this fact! 

 

 

hoffmanAndy Hoffman's Daily Thoughts

He Doth Protest Too Much - The "Best" Of Thomas Jordan

November 18, 2014

 

If this was a decade ago, the merger of Baker Hughes and Halliburton would dominate my attention, as I covered them like blankets from 1995-2005. Every move they made, every step they took, I was watching them, writing of them and adjusting my multi-thousand line "earnings models." In other words, I was as devoted to oilfield service then as I am to precious metals now; only now, not is my career committed to gold and silver and significant amounts of my free time - but my life's savings as well.

 

Today, oilfield services are no longer a part of my economic consciousness - replaced entirely by the upcoming cataclysm that global financial markets, economic activity and geopolitics are headed for. The fate of precious metals is equally set in stone with only the when and how of Cartel failure remaining to be determined. Thus, the next two weeks are of paramount importance in the "gold wars"; as not only is the potentially apocalyptic Swiss gold referendum scheduled for November 30th, but the much ballyhooed December COMEX contract expiration November 24th - amidst record silver open interest and unprecedented backwardation.

 

For the third time in a week, the Cartel were hell bent on enforcing their time honored "Cartel rule #2" - i.e., "all great PM days must be followed by horrible ones." This following Friday's "shocking" surge whilst the "yesses" strengthened their leadership in the Swiss referendum polls, and a slew of PM-bullish news that since expanded dramatically - starting with this weekend's "G-20" boondoggle in Australia. The best the world's "leaders" could come up with was an ambiguous "promise" to grow the global economy by a measly 2% with not even a hint of a viable plan to do so. Not that anything short of hyperinflation can accomplish such a feat anyway, certainly not on a real basis. However, the real story in Brisbane was not petty economic propaganda, but relentless attacks on Vladimir Putin, who arrived with four warships in tow, and left early on account of being "tired." Yes, tired of being vilified by the very people responsible for the second Cold War - and by all means, well prepared to "knock things down, and drag them out."

 

Thus, the Cartel already had their work cut out for them. Irrespective, they executed their 74th "Sunday Night Sentiment" paper raid of the past 75 weeks, which was reversed entirely when first, China reported its largest bad loan surge in a decade; and second, Japan supplied one of the most horrifying "misses" on record, as 3Q GDP plunged 1.6%, compared to expectations of a 2.2% increase. And thus, following the second quarter's 7.1% GDP collapse, Japan is officially back in recession - which is clearly why "Abenomics II" was announced two weeks ago.

 

No matter, the Cartel simply executed its eighth 12:30 AM EST paper raid in the past eleven trading days, when the plunging Japanese market was closed for its lunch break; followed by their 332nd "2:15 AM" EST raid in the past 375 days, and additional attacks at the 8:20 AM COMEX open and 10:00 AM close of the global physical markets. And this is following an utter catastrophe of a U.S. industrial production report, which unexpectedly declined - following the last two weeks' "trifecta" of declining factory orders, durable goods orders and construction spending. But don't worry, the "new hail mary" algo showed up as usual, to lift the benchmark 10-year yield from the Fed's "line in the sand" at 2.30%, whilst the PPT executed its 17th "dead ringer" algo in a row on the "Dow Jones Propaganda Average" at exactly the 10:00 AM time when open market operations were supposed to be no more, care of the supposed "end of QE."

  

 

 

And oh yeah, I neglected to mention the most PM-bullish news of all - which frankly, I'm
still reeling from, given how unexpected and potentially CARTEL SHATTERING it was. Yes, just after Draghi gave yet another speech discussing the weakness of the Euro economy, reiterating his willingness to do "whatever it takes" to save it, ECB board member Yves Mersch delivered what may one day be remembered as the "shot heard round the financial world," in saying

 

Theoretically, the ECB could purchase other assets such as gold, shares, and ETFs to fulfill its promise of adopting further unconventional measures to counter a longer period of low inflation.

-ETF Daily News, November 17, 2014

 

For once, even I am speechless! The ECB has been as mortal an enemy of gold as the Fed - in attempting to illegitimize it, in favor of the sacrosanct fiat currency underlying its power base. To wit, such a statement not only legitimizes gold's monetary value in spades, but directly affronts supposed "allies" like the Fed and Bank of England; not to mention, the Swiss National Bank at its moment of greatest need. In our view, there is no other way to analyze such a dangerous, calculated statement than to assume significant "splintering" of TPTB's views, particularly against the "all-powerful" Federal Reserve as the global money printing group rockets into uncharted realms.

 

Speaking of the beleaguered SNB, which could be two weeks from its demise as a relevant entity, we felt the need to "step up the pressure" as the potentially historic referendum approaches. My past two articles were Friday's "call to the Swiss" - in which we pledwith the Swiss to save their country by re-linking the Franc to gold; and Monday's "most prescient statement ever made" of Ferdinand Lips' 2005 comment that "if the SNB does not stop its gold sales, Switzerland will have to buy it back one day - but at a higher price." Today, we focus on how the SNB's villainous Chairman, Thomas Jordan, "doth protest too much" to the referendum, in his goal of not only maintaining power but delaying the inevitable realization of his policy failures.

 

In many ways, the MSM's incessant "assumption" of a no vote mirrors their equally callous, description of the pre-election Catalonian polls. Despite last year's polls, on average, depicting 55% support for secession, compared to just 20% against and 25% undecided, nearly all MSM articles suggested a Catalonian "no" vote was likely - in contrast to the actual result of 81% yes, 4% no, 15% undecided. Which is exactly how they are writing of the Swiss gold referendum, despite initial polls putting the "yesses" strongly ahead, and Friday's Deutschebank report that the yesses had a "narrow but clear lead." You know, the same type of pro-establishment propaganda that gave credence to this weekend's toothless, baseless, G-20 "growth" communique.

 

As for Jordan, it's quite amazing just how vigilantly he is publicly fighting the gold referendum, despite Swiss law proclaiming it illegal to do so. In other words, Swiss bankers have as little regard for the law as their compatriots throughout the Western world - which we assure you, will not be lost on the Swiss people, who fiercely support the independence their direct democracy process engenders.

 

On September 6th, 2011, Jordan was an SNB board member when its infamous peg with the Euro was instituted at 4:00 AM EST, just as the U.S. Labor Day weekend was concluding. "Coincidentally," gold was trashed instantaneously from its all-time high level of $1,920/oz., in what I long ago deemed "Operation PM Annihilation I." Not a few people - such as our good friend Turd Ferguson - believe the Swiss were directly involved in this raid, coincident with one of the most PM-bullish events of our lifetime. And thus, we wouldn't be a bit surprised if the SNB's supposed 1,040 tonne gold holding is no more real than the U.S. Treasury's 8,134 tonnes.

 



In recent weeks, Jordan has been campaigning against the initiative, as if for his
life, despite the aforementioned law prohibiting it. And in doing so, has made some defenses imaginable - starting with the comical hyperbole that a "yes" vote would represent a "fatal error of judgment."

 

This is from a man presiding over a tripling of the SNB's balance sheet since 2008 - mostly since the Euro peg was announced; to an astonishing 80% of GDP, compared to "just" 25% for the Federal Reserve. In the process, the "Euro Franc" has plunged 16%, yet Switzerland's average quarterly GDP growth of just 0.4% has been no better than the rest of the continent. And as for the "deflation" its rigged CPI purports over this period, it's no more fraudulent than in Japan; as before the recent 16% and 20% plunges in the Euro and Yen, respectively, Tokyo and Osaka were ranked the world's two most expensive cities, whilst Zurich and Geneva were ranked seven and ten.

 

Comically, Jordan claims gold reserves should not be increased because it would make it more difficult to defend the Euro peg - i.e., the primary source of the nations' biggest ill, the aforementioned inflation that catalyzed this year's "Decent Salary Referendum" - which would have raised the Swiss minimum wage to $25/hour, three times that of the United States!

 

Ominously, he actually depicts the cap as the "main policy tool to defend the SNB's mandate of price stability," in perhaps the most paradoxical statement ever made. He also claims gold is not valuable because it is non-interest bearing, despite the fact that Swiss Treasury bill rates are currently negative; whilst 10-year yields are just 0.4%; and he himself promises official negative rates if the economy continues to weaken. Better yet, he claims gold is "one of the most volatile and riskiest investments" as the SNB admits to buying domestic and international small-cap stocks!

 

Frankly, we could write another two or three pages dissecting Jordan's anti-gold arguments - as well as those of his equally desperate SNB colleagues ranging from rote propaganda, to undecipherable platitudes and flat out lies. However, we'll simply end with a comment representative of global Central banking hubris in general - of how "too little gold in the economic crisis was never Switzerland's problem; but instead, the strong franc, whose massive overvaluation has led to major problems." Yes, Thomas, nothing is worse for a population than a strong currency, or better than a weak one. Let's just see how Switzerland does if the "tragedy" of gold re-linking is mandated - and conversely, how many months weeks days it will take the people to fireyou for treason, assuming the current "yes" leadership wins the day.

 

 

interviewInterview with SGT Report
November 19, 2014

Andy Hoffman spoke with SGT Report to discuss the Ukraine gold is gone, currencies collapsing around the world, the Swiss referendum, the stock market, Japan, gold and silver. 


WORLDWIDE WAR FOR PHYSICAL -- Andy Hoffman
WORLDWIDE WAR FOR PHYSICAL -- Andy Hoffman

featuredFeatured Articles

11/17 Ivan Lo - The Equedia Letter - Forget Ebola, Worry About the Coconut Virus - www.lemetropolecafe.com

 

Forget Ebola, Worry About the Coconut Virus

 

Ivan Lo

 

Dear Readers,

 

A week ago, I was at a birthday party for a rocker who had just turned 50.

 

His daughter, my girlfriend's best friend, had placed notes on the tables showing the cost of things when he was born (1964) and the cost of things today.

 

I couldn't help but snicker at what I saw: The drastic difference between the average cost of goods, services, and housing and the average annual salary.

 

Since the notes were a novelty item, I didn't know if the prices shown on the notes represented "nominal" or "real" prices. So I asked.

 

No one knew the answer. As a matter of fact, most people couldn't tell me what the differences between nominal and real prices were.

 

I explained.

 

Nominal prices are the actual sticker price of something, not adjusted for inflation; in other words, a dollar is worth a dollar no matter how you look at it.

 

Real prices are the prices after it has been adjusted to account for inflation; in other words, what one-dollar can actually buy.

 

That seems simple enough.

 

But as we discussed the differences further, I soon found out that most didn't understand the modern concept of inflation.

 

Sure, they knew inflation meant rising prices.

 

But they all believed, as they were always taught in school, that inflation was the result of increased aggregate demand that lead to rising prices.

 

And if they told me that 50 years ago, I would have said they were mostly correct.

 

But that's 50 years ago.

 

Do you remember the prices of goods from when you were a kid?

 

Brainwash 101

 

In our modern society, inflation is now being used in place of devaluation.

 

That's because the dollar is now backed by nothing more than promises - as it has been since the end of the Bretton Woods System, somewhat backed by gold (see "How the Government Borrows Money").

 

And since the Fed is now the biggest holder of U.S. debt (see Biggest Buyers of Garbage), it also means the dollar is now primarily backed by the Fed's accounts which have never been publicly audited.

 

I want to go back to a Letter I wrote last year on inflation, "Inflation vs. Deflation: A Growing Currency War."

 

(The Fed) want(s) you to believe that we absolutely need inflation because the opposite - deflation - is a terrible thing. They want you to believe deflation represents a lack of economic growth.

 

But historically, deflation under normal circumstances has never been the cause of poor growth - as a matter of fact, it was quite the opposite.

 

Deflation occurred in the U.S. during most of the 19th century (the most important exception was during the Civil War).

 

But this deflation was caused by technological progress that created significant economic growth.

 

This was also a period before the establishment of the US Federal Reserve System's role in active management of monetary matters.

 

So "they" may tell you that deflation is a very bad thing.

 

But what deflation really means is a lack of growth in "their" banking system.

 

The Fed is a bank. Its growth - like all banks - relies on lending.

 

If people stop borrowing, banks wouldn't make money.

 

The more they lend, the bigger they become.

 

And the Fed has lent more money since 2007 than it ever has in its history.

 

Here's a look:

 

Equedia.com

 

Starting to get the picture?

 

What Inflation Means for the Fed

 

The Fed's policy is to prevent inflation from falling too low.

 

What that really means is that their policy is to prevent the cost of living from...well...staying the same.

 

Inflation is good for those who are heavily indebted, but punishes those who have been financially responsible.

 

The scary part is that people have fallen for the "we need inflation" mentality because they have been so heavily brainwashed by the media that inflation is a great thing and deflation is really bad.

 

Inflation vs. Deflation

 

Inflation means prices for goods and services are rising, which means you have to pay more for something.

 

Deflation means the opposite, which means you pay less.

 

The less we pay, the less likely we need to borrow to pay for the things we buy.

 

We're all bargain hunters. If we could buy a new iPad for $500 instead of $1000, we would.

 

So why then would we want inflation? Why would we want to pay more for something, when we can pay less?

 

Why wouldn't we want deflation instead?

 

Deflation: Good or Bad?

 

If our society never fell into this debt crisis, we would want deflation.

 

But since our world has fallen for the idea of cheap money via the central bank system, deflation can be scary.

 

Deflation increases the real value of debt.

 

In other words, deflation makes it harder to pay back money that you have borrowed.

 

Let's use housing as a simple example.

 

If housing prices drop by 10% (deflation), a homeowner with a large mortgage could see the real value of his debt rise by 10% because he now owes 10% more than what his home is worth (assuming he borrowed all the money for his house to keep the math simple.)

 

Since deflation means lower prices, which can eventually lead to wage declines, that same homeowner would now have a higher ratio of monthly mortgage payments to wage income.

 

Deflation would mean higher loan-to-value ratios for homeowners, leading to increased mortgage defaults (which we saw in 2007) and ultimately a crash in the banking system.

 

Banks need people to borrow to keep their system alive and they have done a great job of making everyone pay more for everything as a result.

 

The more expensive things get, the more we have to borrow - and that's good for the banks.

 

Housing prices haven't gone up because the real estate market is hot; they've gone up because credit has been cheap.

 

The next time you're buying a condo in Vancouver for $1 million, or a condo in Toronto for $750k, don't thank a great real estate market for that - thank the central banks.

 

Deflation: The Bigger Picture

 

Deflation causes a country's debt-to-GDP ratio to rise.

 

As prices fall GDP is lowered, which then leads to a country's inability to service its debt - the same debt accumulated as a result of easy money.

 

In other words, if deflation occurs, many countries could default...or print more money to prevent that from happening - which is exactly what the US is doing.

 

The central bankers' blueprint is very simple: If they can make you believe that inflation is low, then they can print as much money as they want, further entangling the world in a central bank credit system."

 

What do you think of inflation now?

 

What Inflation Really Means Today

 

Ludwig von Mises, one of the most notable economists and social philosophers of the twentieth century, defined inflation as the following:

 

"Inflation, as this term was always used everywhere and especially in this country, means increasing the quantity of money and bank notes in circulation and the quantity of bank deposits subject to check.

 

But people today use the term 'inflation' to refer to the phenomenon that is an inevitable consequence of inflation, that is the tendency of all prices and wage rates to rise. The result of this deplorable confusion is that there is no term left to signify the cause of this rise in prices and wages.

 

There is no longer any word available to signify the phenomenon that has been, up to now, called inflation."

 

Well said.

 

In simpler words, the term inflation is now widely used simultaneously to describe two very different things: True Price Inflation and Monetary Inflation.

 

The Truth About Your Money

 

True Price Inflation is caused by an increase in aggregate demand forcing the price of goods and services to go up. It is what most of us have been taught in Economics 101.

 

For example, let's say you're on an island and there are 1,000 coconuts available (a fixed supply), the price of a coconut will depend on how many people want one. If 5,000 people wanted one, the seller can raise prices so that the richest 1000 are the only ones that can afford to buy one. When demand is higher than supply, prices go higher.

 

However, monetary inflation - often mistaken for true price inflation - is not the result of aggregate demand, but a decline in the value of a currency.

 

Let's again use coconuts as an example.

 

You start on an island with a limited supply of 1,000 coconuts. So when people trade these coconuts for other things, the price is fairly constant.

 

Over time, you save up 20 coconuts, which you can trade for a new hut.

 

Then, one day, a ship hits some rocks by your island, and its cargo of coconuts washes ashore.

 

Suddenly, 5,000 coconuts are lying on the beach, and everyone scatters to grab some.

 

Because the coconut supply has increased, your coconuts can no longer be traded for a new hut because every one has more coconuts.

 

This scenario shows that monetary inflation is not the result of an increase in aggregate demand, but a decrease in the demand of a currency. In the above case, coconuts are the currency.

 

As I mentioned earlier, in our modern society, inflation is being substituted for another word: devaluation.

 

Now think of the coconut scenario in the context of our own current financial system, substituting coconuts for dollars.

 

Every time you save enough coconuts to buy a new hut, the Fed drops another boat of coconuts onto your island.

 

All of a sudden the coconuts you saved can no longer buy you what they once did before the Fed's drop.

 

If you want to buy that hut you have been saving for now, you'll now have to borrow more coconuts.

 

The Coconut Virus

 

The Fed has dropped an unprecedented amount of coconuts onto our island.

 

But that's not the worst part.

 

Along with these coconuts, the Fed has also dropped a coconut virus that spreads to all other coconuts.

 

We'll call this virus negative zero real interest rates.

 

This virus causes coconuts to spoil over time.

 

So if you save your coconuts, they will eventually become worthless.

 

But that's not all.

 

The Fed will continue dropping these coconuts to make sure you use them before they spoil.

 

Get the picture?

 

Back to Real Life

 

We can't control how fast these coconuts drop, and we can't control where they end up.

 

Let's also assume there are those who started with more coconuts and used their riches to build a coconut collector, so that every time coconuts were dropped, they would gather the most coconuts.

 

We'll call these guys the richest 0.0001%, or bankers - whichever you prefer.

 

If we made a living on the island selling lemonade, it would take a long time before the dropped coconuts affected our earnings because we can't control where, when, and how the dropped coconuts will be spent, nor who will spend them.

 

Since the richest 0.0001% can only drink so much lemonade and they collected the most dropped coconuts, it will take even more time for those dropped coconuts to affect our earnings.

 

This means it will take a long time before we can increase wages for our island employees, if at all.

 

So what's the result of all of these dropped coconuts in our real world scenario?

 

Here's a look at the rising average cost of goods against wages in US dollars, in nominal terms.

 

Le Metropole Cafe
 

In the last 50 years, the price of oil has gone up 32x; housing 18x; pack of gum 20x; subway ride 16x; and movie night for two 15x.

 

The average annual and minimum wage increase? Eight times.

 

Welcome to modern slavery.

 

Enjoy saving your coconuts.

 

To read the full article, please subscribe to Le Metropole Cafe.com.

 

__________________________

 

 

Russell - Stock Market Crash, Gold & Eventual Hyperinflation - kingworldnews.com

November 18, 2014

 

With historic events taking place around the globe, the Godfather of newsletter writers, 90-year old Richard Russell, covered everything from a stock market collapse, to gold, hyperinflation, and massive numbers of homeless people in New York.  The 60-year market veteran also included a fantastic chart to go along with his outstanding commentary.

 

"On the news that Japan is back in recession, the Central Bank of Japan countered the news with a massive explosion in quantitative easing. On this news, Japan's yen semi-crashed.

 

The stock market in the US continues with its bullish progression, a sell signal, little downward follow-through, and then either the Dow or the Transports goes to a new high. Today, with 50 minutes to the close, the Dow is well on its way to recording a new record high."

 

Russell also included this quick note from Dennis Gartman:

 

Continue reading on King World News.

 

***

 

David Stockman On Monetary Breakdown & Skyrocketing Gold - kingworldnews.com

November 15, 2014

 

Today David Stockman warned King World News that the global monetary breakdown is going to intensify and this will lead to a skyrocketing gold price.  KWN takes Stockman's warnings very seriously because he is the man former President Reagan called on in 1981, during that crisis, to become Director of the Office of Management and Budget and help save the United States from collapse.  Below is what Stockman, author of the website contracorner, had to say in his powerful interview.

 

Eric King:  "David, you're thoughts on the gold market as there is all of this massive money printing all over the world.  It really is unprecedented."

 

Stockman:  "Yes.  It's leading to a breakdown of the monetary system, not to the classic hyperinflation, which causes a flight to gold in the initial instance....

 

Continue reading on King World News.

 

 

__________________________

 

 

Koos Jansen: Who's Feeding China's Gold Hunger? - www.caseyresearch.com

By Ed Steer

November 18, 2014

 

The Wrap

 

Just reading the highlights of the precious metal-related stories in today's column, it's easy to see that the demand for gold has become ferocious.  Silver demand is even greater, as India imported almost a record amount in October---and China, in the Bloomberg story mentioned above, says they want to increase solar panel production by a factor of ten next year.

 

Then there's the 40+ million silver eagles sold [mostly to JPMorgan] this year---and add to that the counterintuitive amount of silver heading into SLV---along with the manic in/out silver activity at the COMEX-approved depositories for the last number of years.  I'm sure that when the Royal Canadian Mint reports 3rd quarter results later this month, they will show record sales in silver maple leafs as well.

 

This Swiss gold repatriation looms large---as the vote on that is less than two weeks now.  And not to be forgotten in all of this is the story above that mentions that the ECB may buy gold to boost inflation.

 

Sooner or later---and sooner rather than later, I would think---something has got to give.

 

Continue reading on Casey Research.

 

__________________________

 

 

Ukraine Admits Its Gold Is Gone: "There Is Almost No Gold Left In The Central Bank Vault" - www.zerohedge.com

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/18/2014 19:47 -0500

 

... we reported of a strange incident that took place just after the Ukraine presidential coup, namely that according to at least one source, "in a mysterious operation under the cover of night, Ukraine's gold reserves were promptly loaded onboard an unmarked plane, which subsequently took the gold to the US." 

 

Needless to say there was no official confirmation of any of this taking place, and in fact our report, in which we mused if the "price of Ukraine's liberation" was the handover of its gold to the Fed at a time when Germany was actively seeking to repatriate its own physical gold located at the bedrock of the NY Fed, led to the usual mainstream media mockery.

 

Until now.

 

In an interview on Ukraine TV, none other than the head of the Ukraine Central Bank made the stunning admission that "in the vaults of the central bank there is almost no gold left. There is a small amount of gold bullion left, but it's just 1% of the gold reserves."

 

Continue reading on Zero Hedge.com.

 

***

 

Japan's Last Stand - Portent Of Keynesian Collapse- www.zerohedge.com

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/18/2014 - 12:12 - 0500

 

"Just when did Central Bankers become world media superstars and when do we get to put them back in their box?" Strutting the world stage, flitting from press conference to rubber chicken dinner, dispensing what passes for wisdom and prognosis as if the court astrologers have toppled the mighty Nebuchadnezzar and now rule in his place. Whatever happened to discreetly overseeing the balance of payments and facelessly staunching the worst panics only when absolutely necessary?

 

This is clearly Japan's last stand and there is no real exit strategy except to explicitly default on its debt. But an economic collapse and a sovereign debt default on the world's third largest economy will contain massive economic ramifications on a global scale.

 

Continue reading on Zero Hedge.com.

 

*** 

 

Eric Sprott: Global Gold Demand Is Overwhelming Supply - www.zerohedge.com

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/16/2014 21:23 -0500

 

Submitted by Adam Taggart via Peak Prosperity,

 

Precious metals have had an especially tough go of it over the past month. Both gold and silver are back in price territory last seen in 2010.

 

Eric Sprott returns to the program to discuss the facts as we know them in this market, and what's likely to happen from here. Specifically, he explains the tremendous imbalance currently seen between global supply and demand for precious metals. In his view, prices will have to correct upwards - prodigiously - to bring the two back in alignment:

 

We see almost 60 tons a week being delivered on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Well, you start annualizing 60 tons a week you're talking 3,000 tons a year now. We saw 94 tons of gold go into India in September. We saw the Russian Central Bank buy 37 tons of gold in September. I mean I could come up with numbers that might suggest that we've got 400 tons a week of demand. And we only got 230 tons a week of mine supply. And I've only gotten to three data points. I haven't even gone to the rest of the world.

 

We've now created a situation unfortunately in the market where between high frequency trading and algorithms and interference by the planers they can make things happen that looks like everything is OK. And it's the "OK" part where I think we can really relate to gold not being allowed to go up. Because that's the canary in the coal mine. If gold was above $2,000 we'd all be wondering: What the hell is going on here?  And so they haven't allowed it to happen.

 

But by suppressing the price - and one of the great things about a price of $1,100/oz is that you can buy a lot of gold at $1,100 versus $1,900 - you can buy almost 50%-60% more gold than you could three years ago with the same amount of money. And you can buy 3x the silver. With the same amount of money!

 

Continue reading on Zero Hedge.com.

 

  __________________________

 

At Least 50% Of Your Portfolio Should Be In Gold: NYT Besteller Robert Ringer - www.kitco.com

Nov 17, 2014

 

Guest(s): Robert Ringer Publisher, RobertRinger.com

 

Why should investors hold at least 50% gold in their portfolio? Kitco News speaks with American icon and New York bestselling author Robert Ringer to find out. "First of all, I'm not in the investment business, I don't give investment advice but I've said for a good 35 years...buy gold, buy as much as you could possibly buy because gold is money," he told Daniela Cambone. "Don't measure the price of gold by dollars, measure the value of dollars by ...

 

Continue reading on Kitco.com.



 

recapMarket Recap
Tuesday November 18, 2014




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