Bill Holter

Fire, Water...and the "4 G's"

October 16, 2014

I have thought about writing this type of piece many times before but have only touched on the subject several times.  I had decided in the past not to venture forth because I was afraid that what I wrote might be perceived incorrectly and turn readers off to my main message of protecting themselves financially.  What I am about to write assumes we will have at least a short period of time where life goes back if not 150 years, but maybe to "caveman days."    

Before really getting started, ask yourself if you believe it is even possible for an event, or events (plural) could possibly send us back in time where one must be self-sufficient just to sustain life?  Is it possible for the global fiat money system to collapse?  Is it possible to have a widespread banking and financial system closure?  Is it possible for a war, any war to pass the Rubicon and go nuclear?  Is it possible for some type of pandemic (Ebola?) to become widespread which shuts the system down and people to within their homes?  Is any of it even possible?  In my opinion any or all scenarios are possible, the fiat money and financial system breakdowns are even highly probable in my opinion.  If you don't believe this then what follows is a waste of your time ...until maybe it's not?

Assuming a few weeks or few months where "nothing works" as it once did, what can you do now to prepare yourself?  There are several areas, each with its own subsets and choices.  I will ask a few questions and hopefully if you have not prepared for anything yet, you get cracking.  If you have prepared then hopefully at least one light bulb goes on where you say to yourself "I had not thought of that."  First, you have only so much money you can use to prepare with so you do whatever you can.  Secondly, if you live in a city or densely populated area, in my opinion you shouldn't.  Remember, you can only do the best you can do and if/when things pass there is no sense in beating yourself up for something forgotten.

To begin with, fire and water are life's necessities, the "4G's" (God, Grub, Guns and Gold) will all have variable importance to your survival depending who and where you are.  The two most important things to mankind sustaining himself are "fire and water."  If workers are not getting paid (or fearful of a pandemic) to man and maintain a clean water supply will they go to work?  What will you do for clean water?  If you live near a river or other water supply then great ...but it's probably not drinkable.  You can also put trashcans under your downspouts ...this is probably also not drinkable.  Have you done anything to aid in purifying water?  Do you have Clorox?  A filtration system such as a Steri pen or even something as simple as purchasing Life straws?  Nothing can live without water, this should be your number one concern, and a filtration system should be a top concern.

Do you plan to boil water?  What will be your source of heat?  LP gas?  How many tanks?  Wood?  Have you ordered a cord or two?  How will start a fire?  Do you have massive amounts of newspaper or kindling to get it started?  Do you even have disposable lighters or matches?  What will you use for light at night?  The fireplace?  Candles?  Do you have enough to last a couple of months?  Had you thought about buying a dozen or so of the solar driveway lights and instead of prettying up your driveway, you won't smack your knee on the coffee table after dark?   

What about food?  How will you cook what you have?  Have you stored anything ...at all?  Have you stocked up in the different categories such as bulk, protein, vegetables and fruits etc.?  How long and what are the expiration dates?  How long after the expiration dates is it safe to eat?  Have you stored your grains so that bugs will not infiltrate?  I personally found that "parboiled rice" stores much longer and does not attract bugs like other rice ... (it also tastes better).  Do you have oil to cook with?  In my opinion, if you want to build a storage it should be done with dry products, canned products and topped off with dehydrated products that will last up to 25 years.  (Once you get the basics taken care of, don't forget some "fun food."  How great would some M+M's, potato chips, raisins or even cookies taste after not having any for 2 months or more?)  Remember, you will need water for much of this.  If you want to cook rice, pasta, dehydrated packages or even MRE's, you will need WATER and preferably FIRE to sterilize and allow for warm food.  I could write an entire book on this subject but YOU need to research and decide what is best for your family.  What is right for me, my next door neighbor or anyone else may not be the solution for you.  You may have a special diet, low sodium or even an allergy.  Some people are allergic to peanuts (I am), peanut butter is great for protein intake but not if it affects you negatively.  You need to try to think of everything in the food category, not just what will fill your bellies but for nutrition and the ability to actually prepare it.  

What about household goods?  What if you have an ant or insect problem?  How will you get rid of your waste from food?  Maybe a little bit of gasoline will help you burn it?  Plastic bags?  What about "your" waste?  How will you dispose of it?  Have thought about what it would be like to "squat in the woods?  Two pieces of rope between two trees tied to a saddle "girth" to lean back on might be handy huh?  What about your medical products?  Can you purchase some of your meds ahead?  If your insurance company won't let you buy more than 2 months ahead ...can you purchase some from Canada or elsewhere to give you a buffer?  What about over the counter products?  Do you have any cold or flu medicine?  Aspirin or pain killers?  What about something simple like Rolaids or even diarrhea medicine?  Toothpaste or soap?  An extra couple of razor blades, shampoo and don't forget the toilet paper?  I mentioned disposable lighters earlier, you would need these but here is a valid question ...what would a .99 cent lighter be worth to someone who didn't have one?  Would it maybe be worth a bicycle or something similar?

Speaking of transportation, what will you use if gasoline could not be procured?  A horse?  How will you feed him?  A bicycle?  What if it gets a flat?  Could you repair it or do you even have a pump to pump it up if it becomes low?  Speaking of a horse, do you have a cat or some dogs?  What will they eat?  Table scraps of rice and beans?  What will they drink for water?  So you live near a river and will get water from there and travel on your bike ...can you protect yourself and your bucket of water?

Protection, this is a whole 'nother topic.  Do you have any arms?  More ammo than just one clip or two?  Can you shoot and actually hit your target?  When was the last time you practiced?  Do you live in a state where it is legal to carry concealed?  Do you have a license in case you were stopped (if the police are actually working) while carrying?  How about a shotgun for close quarters at home?  Do you only have buckshot or did you remember to buy some birdshot for a squirrel or juicy white wing dove?  How about a pellet gun for a rabbit or something similar?  Have you ever cleaned and cooked an animal before or might it be a good idea to buy a book or print something from online now so at least you have an idea what to eat and what not to?   

I have written extensively regarding "money" itself.  Do you have a little bit of "cash cash" which might spend for a short time period for something your neighbor has a surplus of?  How about silver?  Did you buy 100 ounce bars?  10 ouncers? Or did you buy rounds or junk which will be "spendable?"  Have you spoken to any local farmers and asked them if they will accept silver now?  Will they?  Do you even know any local farmers?  How about your serious capital?  Have you taken anything "out of the system" so if a financial collapse or even a major "hack attack" wiped out your balances, will you have anything left?

Another area I am sure some will roll their eyes at is "religion."  Do you have any spiritual relationship with whoever your God is?  Should you?  Is it something you believe is worthy now?  Or when things look darker than midnight will you come around to it?  What about your physical shape?  Can you walk 10 miles packing supplies?  Have you exercised or tried to keep yourself in good shape given your age?

I have only scratched the surface here and I am sure I will hear from those who say what about batteries or radios or whatever.  Yes!  That is exactly the point of me writing this ...THINK!  Think for yourself.  Think now about what you might need.  If I am wrong and we "live happily ever after" you can ride your bike, eat your food, have some fun target practicing and make your driveway the envy of your neighbors after dark!  And...You will be purchasing any and all items most probably "2%" (sarcasm) cheaper than you can get them a year from now!

Maybe I am wrong, I don't think so.  In my opinion, the odds of some sort of major league "Black Swan" have increased greatly over the last couple of years and are approaching certainty.  Do I know what it will be?  Do I know when it will arrive?  Do I know how severe or long lasting affects it will have?  No, of course not, but I do know that "something" (many things) just ain't right.  I know the population is now more unprepared than any time in my lifetime to be self-sustainable.  The will isn't there, the ability is fleeting and the knowledge is almost gone.  No one will "prepare" anything for you, only you can "think" and then "act" for yourself.  Please do not fall into the trap I hear all the time ..."they" will never let it happen."  "They" have put us in the situation we now find ourselves and unfortunately it is my opinion "they" will kick the table over and then "blame" it on something "out of their control."  The system is big, too big, and there is nothing anyone as an individual can do about it.  The ONLY thing you can do is be as ready as you can for when the table does get kicked over.  I hope this piece was helpful and even if just one person takes heed, it was well worth my time to write it. 

Crashing Oil Prices Portends Unspeakable Horrors

October 15, 2014

OK, so how about that for a headline? And no, we're not exaggerating as the charge toward global depression, war and hyperinflation is exploding out of control, like terrified wildebeest pursued by a den of lions. We wrote last week that the only difference between 2008 and today - aside from tens of trillions of debt and historic geopolitical tensions - was the PPT's ability to manipulate equity markets higher. However, "Economic Mother Nature" is decidedly asserting herself; and consequently, TPTB are massively losing control of paper financial markets. Eventually, the physical gold and silver markets will be liberated as well, ending the Cartel's disgusting, 15-year masking of reality. And with just $50 million of silver inventory on the Shanghai exchange, and U.S. Mint sales on pace for one of their best months ever, it's just a matter of time before the Financial System's Achilles Heel destroys it - permanently. Now, more than ever, it appears "it" has commenced - i.e., the "Big One."

Frankly, we could write entire articles on no less than a dozen "horrible headlines" this morning, including...

1. Greek stock and bonds collapsing as a 2015 default appears certain
2. The collapsing French government, as Hollande has lost political support
3. Plunging German growth estimates
4. The growing Italian movement to secede from the Euro monetary system
5. Growing support of Catalonian secession
6. This morning's horrifying plunges in U.S. Retail Sales, the Empire State Manufacturing Index and Mortgage Purchase Originations
7. Wells Fargo reporting yesterday that mortgage activity has plummeted to 2008 Lehman levels
8. The all-out global commodity crash, highlighted in today's article
9. Exploding currency volatility - i.e., the "single most bullish precious metals factor imaginable"
10. Unmitigated Western bond yield crash as the "most damning proof yet of QE failure" exposes a collapsing global economy.
11. Exploding U.S. debt about to eclipse $17.9 billion due to the "unreported" $100 billion spent on Iraq, Syria and the Ukraine
12. Last night's absurd stock repurchase admission by Intel - likely, marking the painful end of one of QE's most hideous shareholder-destroying practices. It is estimated that 95% of all 2014 U.S. corporate earnings were plowed into buybacks - often supplemented by new debt - at historically high valuations, whilst average property, plant, and equipment averaged 22 years of age, its oldest level in 60 years.
13. A new study purporting the largest "TBTF" banks may require $900 billion of capital to remain solvent

If we really get a sustained, disinflationary forecast ... then I think moving back to additional asset purchases should be something we should seriously consider.

- John Williams, SF Fed President, October 14, 2014

In other words, the "countdown to the Yellen reversal" has commenced"; and if it occurs this Fall, we may well see the long-awaited collapse of the gold Cartel.

This morning, WTI crude prices are down another $1+ to $81/bbl., whilst Brent Crude has plunged to $84/bbl. The carnage on energy industry equities is catastrophic, as all energy-related sectors have broken down to multi-year lows, portending a horrific 2008-style crash.

Overseas, $80 crude puts the budgets of essentially all major oil producers underwater from Iran to Russia to even Saudi Arabia. OPEC, which back in my energy analyst days of 1995-2005 was all-powerful, can no longer support prices. And thus, as what we expect to be a far greater economic cataclysm than 2008 unfolds, it would not be surprising to see oil prices fall to $30-$40/bbl. again - as global economic activity utterly implodes. Frankly, it is difficult to envision a scenario where the resultant geopolitical tension does NOT catalyze war - and hopefully not World War III.

But even uglier is the impact collapsing oil prices will have on the "last bastion" of illusory American success - the shale oil bubble that will surely collapse in short order. On average, it is estimated that shale oil's marginal cost of production is $85/bbl. However, as we learned earlier this year, when the nation's largest shale field had 96% of its reserves erased, the economics of this rapidly depleting resource are far uglier than the propaganda will have you believe - and the finances of venture capital financed "juniors" horrific, as their balance sheets were piled up with high-yield debt. Eighteen months ago, I wrote of the "unending energy independence hype" I experienced first-hand as an energy analyst - and from everything I've read, shale is no different. In other words, just as the first "pillar" of the "recovery" propaganda, housing, was decidedly broken this summer - the second, energy, is dead now too.

Only time will tell if TPTB can even slow the global economic and financial market collapse; and certainly, they can't stop it. If ever there was a time to heed the warnings the Miles Franklin Blog have proffered all these years, it's NOW. The window to PROTECT your assets from the inevitable hyperinflation that collapsing economies and currencies will cause is rapidly closing - as when the scant amount of actual metal runs out - as it did in varying degrees in 2008, 2011, and 2013 - you may never get another chance to procure it.

Worldwide Fiat Implosion: How High Can Silver Go?  

October 16, 2014

Andy Hoffman spoke with SGT Report to discuss bond yields around the world have now hit an average an all-time low, global interest rates plunging, oil prices, Shanghai Gold Exchange, gold and silver.  To listen to the interview, please click below. 

WORLDWIDE FIAT IMPLOSION: HOW HIGH CAN SILVER GO?

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My Most Important Audioblog Yet 

October 15, 2014

On his weekly podcast, Andy Hoffman discusses the U.S. dollar, oil prices, gold and silver, U.S interest rates, record Silver Eagle sales and retail sales.   To listen to the audio, please click below.  

My Most Important Audioblog Yet

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