Latest OECD leading indicators show
global economy in state of flux 
February 7, 2013
Greetings!

    

 
According to the OECD ("Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development"), the US economy managed to stage a leading indicator "rally" into the most favorable northeast quadrant.  The red six month lagging tail on the graph clearly shows the economic leading indicators moving from expansion to slowdown, only to move back to the expansion quadrant in late 2012 (the red circle is the last data point for November 2012).

 

 OECD US November 2012   

  

 

As for the global economy, its six month lagging tail shows a more muted journey.  While it follows a similar path of the US economy, the broader global economy's leading economic indicator is just now moving back towards the expansionary quadrant, though it is still in slowdown mode.

 

 OECD US 11/2012

 

 

Europe, Asia & Emerging Markets tell varying stories

 


The European debt crisis had the European LEI in the recessionary quadrant for all of the last six months, with it just now moving towards the recovery stage.

 

 

OECD Big Europe 11/2012  

 

 

With a slowdown in some of the larger Asian countries, the Asian LEI finally moved from the recession quadrant to the recovery zone.

 

OECD Big Asia 11/2012  

 

 

Of the BRIC countries, Russia seems to be having the hardest time righting the ship, with its LEI moving from slowdown to recession.

 

OECD BRICs 11/2012  

 

 

We think the big question is can the global central banks provide enough quantitative easing to keep the global economy afloat under the increasing weight of austerity, debt burdens and Fiscal Cliff 2.0?  Currently, these leading indicators seem to be giving a mixed message as to where the global economy is headed.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Optimus Advisory Group's Mission
Optimus Advisory Group manages several SMAs designed to provide superior risk-adjusted returns over a full market cycle while maintaining a low-correlation to traditional market indices.
 

For more information about any of our programs, please contact us.  You may also download the factsheets for any of our investment strategies by clicking on the factsheets webpage link.  

 

Thank you for your interest in our liquid tactical and alternative investment strategies.  We'll continue to keep you informed as we move forward.

 

Sincerely,

 


Steve Rumsey

Chief Investment Officer
Optimus Advisory Group

(949) 727-4734

 

Advisory services offered through Optimus Advisory Group,
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Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of preparation and are subject to change.

 

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