Greetings!
According to the OECD ("Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development"), the US economy managed to stage a leading indicator "rally" into the most favorable northeast quadrant. The red six month lagging tail on the graph clearly shows the economic leading indicators moving from expansion to slowdown, only to move back to the expansion quadrant in late 2012 (the red circle is the last data point for November 2012).
As for the global economy, its six month lagging tail shows a more muted journey. While it follows a similar path of the US economy, the broader global economy's leading economic indicator is just now moving back towards the expansionary quadrant, though it is still in slowdown mode.
Europe, Asia & Emerging Markets tell varying stories
The European debt crisis had the European LEI in the recessionary quadrant for all of the last six months, with it just now moving towards the recovery stage.
With a slowdown in some of the larger Asian countries, the Asian LEI finally moved from the recession quadrant to the recovery zone.
Of the BRIC countries, Russia seems to be having the hardest time righting the ship, with its LEI moving from slowdown to recession.
We think the big question is can the global central banks provide enough quantitative easing to keep the global economy afloat under the increasing weight of austerity, debt burdens and Fiscal Cliff 2.0? Currently, these leading indicators seem to be giving a mixed message as to where the global economy is headed.
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