Industry news
Overview of current and planned wind projects in South Africa
With over 40 utility-scale wind projects now announced in South Africa, and big wins expected in the upcoming Round 5 of the REIPPP programme, the wind landscape in South Africa is continuing to expand.
Do you want to get an overview of the current and planned wind projects in South Africa? For further information, contact:
Amy Allebone-Salt
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Industry news
WWF workshop on the economics of nuclear energy in South Africa
A one-day workshop, hosted by WWF South Africa and the Heinrich Boll Stiftung at the Wits Club, Johannesburg, on 9 March 2016, was attended by presenters, panelists and delegates deeply embedded in the energy sector in South Africa.
However, notably absent from the workshop, were representatives from potential nuclear vendor companies, such as Rosatom, Areva, Westinghouse and the other contending nuclear vendor countries, Japan, China or South Korea, none of whom had apparently been invited to attend or participate.
The workshop was opened by Layla Al-Zubaidi of the Heinrich Böll Stiftung, after which Saliem Fakir of WWF South Africa introduced Mycle Schneider, an independent international energy and nuclear analyst, and author of the renowned annual World Nuclear Industry Status Reports.
Click here to download the latest World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2015 (16,5 MB PDF file)
Mycle Schneider gave a high-level overview of international trends in the nuclear power sector, making reference to the latest comprehensive World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2015, showing the declining contribution of nuclear energy in the global mix, and the generally parlous state of the nuclear vendor industry, with particular reference to USA, France, Japan, Russia, China and South Korea.
This was followed by a panel discussion on "Energy planning - the IRP and the necessity of nuclear energy" introduced by Prof. Anton Eberhard of the UCT Graduate School of Business, and also including panellists Dominique Doyle of Earth Life Africa and Dr. Velaphi Msimang of the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection.
Thereafter a presentation on "What the new nuclear build would mean for the South African economy" was given by Tara Caetano of the UCT Energy Research Centre, which detailed her research on the negative impact of a new nuclear build programme on the electricity price in South Africa.
This was followed by a panel discussion on "The costs of nuclear power for South Africa and the financing options", involving panellists Dr. Iraj Abedian of Pan-African Investment and Research Services, Jaco Kriek of Standard Bank (and former CEO of the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor Company), and Dr. Dawid Serfontein of North-West University.
After the lunch break, a panel discussion on "Nuclear procurement" was moderated by Dominique Doyle of Earth Life Africa, involving panellists Dr. Edwin Ritchken, an independent consultant and analyst, Chris Yelland of EE Publishers, and Mycle Schneider.
Finally a presentation was given by Dr. Tobias Bischof-Niemz of the CSIR on the option of wind and solar power in combination with "flexible" power sources such as gas, for the provision of economical, base-load power in South Africa.
This was then followed by a panel discussion on "Viable alternatives to nuclear energy for South Africa", moderated by Prof. Wikus van Niekerk of Stellenbosch University, and involving panellists Mike Rossouw, an advisor to Department of Energy IPP Project Office, Piet van Staden of Sasol, and Prof. Rosemary Falcon of Wits University... (more)
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Industry news
A different position on the economics of nuclear energy in South Africa
As balance and counterpoint to the above article, we publish here, with permission, the summary and main findings of a recent report entitled:
South Africa - the economics of nuclear energy
by Trusted Sources, UK
Click here to read the full article
Click here to download the full report (900 kB PDF file)
Summary
Over the past year, political momentum has been building in South Africa behind the plan to build a modern fleet of nuclear power plants (NPPs) with aggregate capacity of nearly 10 GW.
At the same time, the plan remains the subject of lively debate, much of which is focused on the affordability for South Africa of the substantial cost of as much as US $50-billion.
Against this background, this report considers some of the economic implications were this nuclear energy initiative to go ahead. First, we estimate the cost of nuclear generated electricity. We then model the extent of the resulting reduction in CO2 emissions.
A further modelling exercise is focused on the impact on economic growth in South Africa economy from varying degrees of localization of the investment involved in building nuclear power capacity on the scale envisaged.
Main findings
- Applying the International Energy Agency (IEA) method and formula for the "levelised cost of electricity" (LCOE) - that is, the average lifetime cost of generating electricity using different fuels over the life of the corresponding technologies - the resulting estimate of the nuclear LCOE compares favourably with the current cost of coal-fired generation (US $86,88/MWh in our base case vs. the IEA's estimate for coal of US $99,79/MWh at the same cost of capital).
- South Africa's planned nuclear energy development would reduce carbon emissions compared to the business-as-usual baseline by 21%. A monetary value may be put on this reduction based on carbon tax rates. That value would be around US $5-billion assuming a modest tax rate of US $5/tonne that may seem suitable for a developing country, rising to about US $22-billion if South Africa were to introduce a carbon tax close to conservative forecasts of future European levels - around €20/tonne. These values apply to our modelling period out to 2040 but would be higher in practice since the NPPs' useful life would continue for another three decades.
- The localisation of a portion of the investment in the envisaged NPP new builds would produce a positive shock for South African industry and economic growth. At the highest plausible localization level of 45%, the multiplier effect of this industrial investment on GDP would be 3,4x and the monetary value of the incremental value added in current US dollars would be over US $77-billion (about one quarter of the country's current GDP)... (more)
Click here to download the full article
Click here to download the full report (900 kB PDF file)
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