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| Alpine fault data reveals quake risk
A study of sediment layers in the Southern Alps has offered new insights into the likelihood of the Alpine Fault generating a large earthquake in our lifetimes, making headlines here and overseas.
 The research, published today in the leading journal Science presents a revised timeline of earthquakes occurring on the alpine faultline dating back 8,000 years. The GNS Science researchers who undertook the study found that the 24 earthquakes occurred that occurred during this period did so with unusual regularity (in seismological terms). The average interval between quakes was about 330 years, with the shortest about 100 years, the longest interval was approximately 500 years.The last rupture was 295 years ago.
The consistency of the fault rupturing led the researchers to estimate that, based on previous patterns, there was a 30% chance of the fault rupturing in the next 50 years.
In a GNS Science media release, lead researcher Dr Kelvin Berryman pointed out the increasing probability of a rupture as time goes on, saying, "The bottom line is - if not in our lifetimes then it is increasingly likely in our children's or our grandchildren's. Therefore a precautionary approach is certainly warranted."
Expert commentary collected by the SMC and a roundup of extensive local and international media coverage is available on the SMC website.
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Carbon price roll out in Australia
This Sunday sees the official launch of the carbon tax (that dare not speak its name) in Australia.
Experts across the ditch are welcoming the signal sent by policymakers, and speaking optimistically about the prospects for weaning the heavily fossil fuel-dependent country off coal.
It's happening faster than people realise, according to Peter Newman, Professor of Sustainability at Curtain University. He told the Australian Science Media Centre:
"King Coal is well and truly on the way out. What's more, renewables now make up over half of all new power being generated in Australia.
"The carbon tax is a small step that will help send a signal that renewables are right and King Coal is finished. That message has been out there since the Federal Government first began to take it seriously. The dollars involved in the tax are small, the signal is big!
"It is time we as a society, embraced the opportunities presented by this increased investment in renewable energies and stepped away from our belief in the unchallengeable dominance of fossil fuel power and the inadequacies of renewables.
"We need to shift the public discourse away from the doom and gloom perpetuated by some politicians and instead have confidence in our progress towards creating a greener world."
Here in New Zealand, economist Suzi Kerr at Motu Economic and Public Policy Research sees Australia's carbon price as part of a growing global movement to sidestep deadlocked UN negotiations on greenhouse gas emissions:
"Cooperation cannot be forced from above and no country can solve the problem alone. Each credible and visible step forward by any player, however small, not only reduces climate change directly but also builds trust among countries. This trust that no one is acting alone reduces political resistance elsewhere."
"Australia's introduction of a carbon tax leading into a emissions trading system, is another extremely helpful step toward building global cooperation on climate mitigation."
Full comments available on the AusSMC website. |
| Swine flu impact examined
How many people died in the 2009 swine flu pandemic?It is a simple enough question, but one that is very difficult to answer.
A new study published this week in the journal Lancet Infectious Diseases has used elaborate statistical modelling techniques to provide the best estimate of deaths due to the swine flu virus (H1N1) so far.
During the pandemic, 18,500 laboratory-confirmed H1N1-deaths were reported worldwide from April 2009 to August 2010. However, as a general rule, the number of lab-confirmed flu deaths is known to be significantly lower than the number of flu deaths that actually occur, and the new research indicates that an estimated 151,700 to 575,400 people died as a result of having contracted 2009 H1N1 during the first year that the virus circulated in each country worldwide.
An international team of influenza experts, including Dr Sue Huang from ESR in New Zealand, calculated the estimated mortality rates by taking into account the known data on deaths due respiratory infections (of any kind) for each country.
The result also agreed with previous data that highlighted swine flu's particular impact on younger adults; 80% of the deaths occurred in people younger than 65 years, contrary to seasonal influenza where most deaths occur among the elderly.
You read more about the research on Stuff.co.nz or NZ Herald Online.
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On the science radar...
Bark found in early human bite, the tides of titan, super toilets, Dark ages carbon mystery, stopping time, acoustic tweezers and messages in twisted light.
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Quoted: Stuff.co.nz
"This is how science works. EPA is not required to re-prove the existence of the atom every time it approaches a scientific question."
US Judges David Sentelle, Judith Rogers,
and David Tatel, dismissing criticisms of the EPA
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| Sciblogs Podcast: Digital Earth 2.0
On the Sciblogs podcast this week we look at the progress made on Digital Earth initiatives like Google Earth - what's in store for the next generation of Earth visualisation and simulation platforms?
We talk to Sciblogger Ken Perrott about new data from the 2011 Australian census that shows more Aussies are ditching religion and we check in with a scientist examining the barely tapped potential of nature to supply compounds and extracts that can be used in medicines.
You can stream the podcast by clicking here, or subscribe in iTunes or via RSS. You can even listen to the podcast on your phone via Stitcher.com
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New from the SMC
Experts respond: Alpine fault risk: Experts respond to new research revealing the Alpine Fault is surprisingly regular in generating quakes.
In the News:
Whale breeding studied: The first paternity study of southern right whales has found a surprisingly high level of local breeding success for males.
Reflections on Science:
Climate psychology: In the latest issue of Element magazine Rebecca Blithe explores new research into the reasoning of climate change denial.
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Sciblogs highlights
Some of the highlights from this week's posts:
Rio wrap: a real limp deal (where's the way out?) - Gareth Renowden rounds up the outcome from the environmental summit in Brazil, Rio+20.
Hot Topic
Science is a Girl Thing! ? The European Union's advertising campaign to get more women into science has missed the mark and hit a sexism sore spot, reports Michael Edmonds.
Molecular Matters
Science is messy - for girls too! Ken Perrott also weighs on the EU's allegedly sexist science scandal currently playing out in the blogosphere.
Open Parachute
If we build it, will they come... - If you can think it, you can make it. Peter Kerr checks out a new creative initiative mashing design and manufacturing together.
sticK
What constitutes beauty? - tarantulas!Alison Campbell steps up in defence of a cohort of eight-legged immigrants arriving at Wellington Zoo.
Bio Blog
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Research highlights
Please note: hyperlinks point, where possible, to the relevant abstract or paper.
Climate change shifts plants: Large areas of vegetation are likely to shift abruptly to alternative states as a result of climate change, according to new research. However, differences in the timing of these shifts will dampen their overall effect on the Earth system. In particular, increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is shown to encourage shifts to vegetation types with larger leaf areas and/or woody-plant dominance.
Nature
Looks pretty, tastes like cardboard: Plant breeders who have spent 70 years selecting tomatoes that are uniformly light green fruit before ripening get a nice supermarket display as they turn red evenly. Unfortunately, new research shows molecular changes responsible for the "uniform ripening" trait also reduce the fruit's sugar content. Scientists now suggest manipulating a transcription factor called GLK2 could help enhance the production and quality of tomatoes and other crops.
Science
Autism diagnosis at age 2: Computer analysis of recordings done with commonly-available EEG equipment, can identify children as young as two years suffering from autism.
Autistic children have reduced short range connectivity, with poor function of local brain networks - especially in the left hemisphere regions responsible for language - and increased connectivity between regions further apart.
BMC Medicine
Mind-reader: People suffering from paralysis or locked-in-syndrome may be able to communicate with the first real-time, brain-scanning speller. A letter-encoding technique that requires almost no pre-training uses mental tasks which produce 27 distinct brain patterns corresponding to each letter of the alphabet and the equivalent of a space bar.
Current Biology
Coffee clash: Regular, moderate, coffee drinking may reduce heart failure risk - but you can have too much of a good thing. American scientists say Scandinavian research shows moderate consumption - equivalent to two American coffee shop drinks - may actually protect against heart failure by as much as 11 percent. Excessive coffee drinking - five to six cups a day - has no benefit and may even be dangerous.
Circulation Heart Failure
Nicotine vaccinations: US researchers have developed a novel anti-body vaccine that blocks addictive nicotine chemicals from reaching the brain, and tested it in mice. The vaccine triggers the liver to continuously produce antibodies that gobble up nicotine the moment it enters the bloodstream - potentially a way to help addicted smokers being harmed by the other 4000 chemicals in a burning cigarette.
Science Translational Medicine
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Policy updates
Some of the policy highlights from this week:
Net Ban: Primary Industries Minister David Carter has today announced further measures to protect Maui's dolphins. The existing recreational and commercial set net ban will be extended further along the Taranaki coast and out to two nautical miles.
Folate submission: The Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) has released a discussion paper (setting out options which range from mandatory fortification of most breads through to voluntary fortification) and is receiving submissions until July 16. |
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Upcoming sci-tech events
For these and more upcoming events, and more details about them, visit the SMC's Events Calendar. |
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