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Feature article: Why the World's Appetite for Oil Will Peak Soon
The conventional wisdom about steadily rising demand is wrong. Within two decades, global oil use will start to fall.
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When it comes to oil demand, the conventional wisdom is clear: Population growth and a rising global middle class guarantee that demand-and prices-will rise over the coming decades. It is a story line that is almost universally accepted by investors, governments and industry alike. But like many such consensus views, it is one that should be treated with caution.
The world's economy is experiencing transformational changes that, I believe, will dramatically alter patterns of energy use over the next 20 years. Exponential gains in industrial productivity, software-assisted logistics, rapid urbanization, increased political turmoil in key regions of the developing world, and large bets on renewable energy are among the many factors that will combine to slow the previous breakneck growth for oil.
The result, in my opinion, is as startling as it is world-changing: Global oil demand will peak within the next two decades.
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SOLAR GCC ALLIANCE NEWS
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Publisher's Note:
The hype and reality of solar in the MENA region ?
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Egypt solar continues to grab headlines and industry MOU's.
Dubai Inc. announces more "world record" solar projects. Private sector market struggles
Saudi solar market pauses
Since the beginning of 2015, the regional solar industry has shifted like the sands of the desert. Q4 2014 ended with Jordan as the blooming solar market but was quickly replaced by the UAE and Egypt in Q1 2015.
Egypt is enjoying a "solar gold rush" lately from hopeful solar developers expecting the Egyptian governments solar FDI strategy to jump start the market. Egypt focused solar conferences and exhibitions continue to fill the business calendar. While these activities are promising it remains to be seen how soon construction will begin on the first large scale solar projects. Last week Egypt's Ministry of Electricity and Renewable Energy signed seven binding memoranda of understanding (MOUs) totaling 320 MW of solar and wind projects worth some $500 million under the government's feed-in tariff (FIT) program. The country is aiming to install 2.3 GW of solar by 2017, along with a renewable energy target of 20% by 2020. Like Jordan, Egypt grid capacity and other solar program issues may delay solar project development.
Dubai continues to roll-out an impressive renewable energy media campaign as a lead up to Expo 2020. DEWA recently announced plans to accelerate the amount of solar power in Dubai's energy mix from 1% to 7% by 2020 and to 15% by 2030 from the previous target of 5%. DEWA will release a bid for a 700MW photovoltaic tender in the fourth quarter of 2015, using the Independent Power Producer model. However, there are very few solar projects developing outside UAE government sponsored mega projects. The private sector solar market is struggling to develop a pipeline of solar projects while electricity rates remain subsidized at very low rates.
Saudi Arabia , the solar energy "sleeping giant" has become a mirage recently. In September 2013 Saudi Arabia was the focus of the global solar industry. Today K.A.CARE's "white paper" is long forgotten and the global solar industry has shifted to more promising emerging markets. Behind the scenes SEC and Saudi Aramco continue to discuss renewable energy strategies internally as the private sector looks for solar project development outside Saudi Arabia. Recent government sponsored solar projects in Dubai and Egypt drew strong interest from Saudi solar companies with very competitive bids. Last month, Dubai and Saudi Arabia-based Abdul Latif Jameel Energy acquired Fotowatio Renewable Ventures (FRV) from Spain, including its global 3.8 GW pipeline of PV projects.
I remain hopeful that Saudi Arabia will one day assume a leadership position in developing solar throughout the Middle East. Given the many internal and external issues confronting the new Saudi government, I expect further delays in government sponsored solar energy development. I do not foresee any significant solar project tenders during the balance of 2015.
MENASOL 2015 begins today in Dubai. This annual event typically provides a good forum for networking and market insights for the MENA solar industry.
Best regards,
Browning Rockwell
Executive Director, Solar GCC Alliance
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Solar GCC Alliance Jobs Portal
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Solar Careers in the MENA/GCC Region portal - over 2,000 CV's
The Solar GCC Alliance Jobs Portal is your source for opportunities in the GCC's growing solar industry. Click below to find jobs or qualified candidates.
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Solar GCC Alliance - featured company
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The Art of Solar - We are solar architects.
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Solar GCC Alliance Partner News
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 Egypt-SIA releases report :
"Egypt's Solar Energy Market - FiT Program and Beyond 2015"
Egypt has captured the headlines and attention of the solar industry the last several months. With potentially 2.3 GW of power to be generated by photovoltaic energy in the next couple of years, the world is taking notice; major international players are coming to Egypt, forming key relations with local enterprises to make this ambitious goal a reality.
Download the report - Solar Energy Market - FiT Program and Beyond 2015
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Solar Trade Leads and Tenders Bulletin Board
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Upcoming Events
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Save the Date - Oct. 7-8, 2015
co-hosted by SASIA, Solar GCC Alliance and partners
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Annual Desert Solar in the Mena Region - 2015 Saudi Arabia
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REGIONAL & GLOBAL SOLAR NEWS
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Global - MENA - GCC countries:
Renewable Energy Prospects:
United Arab Emirates - REmap 2030 analysis
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IRENA's host country, the United Arab Emirates, has partner on one of the first REmap country reports. The UAE took a bold stance to embrace renewable energy - a stance that captured the attention of countries
throughout the Middle East and the world. But it was the right choice, as this report demonstrates. Renewable energy makes economic sense for the region decades earlier than expected, and the UAE now stands ready to benefit from its first-mover advantage.
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Thin-film technology best placed to secure Saudi Arabia's solar target
With a module efficiency of 16%, Manz AG presented an impressive new record efficiency grade for CIGS thin-film solar modules at SNEC in Shanghai, the world's leading trade fair for the photovoltaics (PV) industry.
Following this efficiency upgrade, CIGS thin-film modules, which were already highly suited to the region's weather conditions, are now in an even stronger position to help achieve Saudi Arabia's solar objectives," said Mohamed Alammawi, Manz's vice president of sales for the MENA region.
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 Towards a Brighter Future DEWA recently announced plans to accelerate the amount of solar power
in its energy mix to 15% by 2030 from the previous target of 5%. What was behind that decision and might DEWA be in a position to raise the target again in the coming years?
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Interview with His Excellency Saeed Mohammed Al Tayer, managing director and CEO of DEWA.
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Jordan prequalifies 15 for $150mn solar project
Jordan has prequalified 15 companies to build a $150mn solar power plant in the south of the country.
The 65-75 megawatt (MW) project will be located in Qweira in the southern Governorate of Aqaba, the Jordan Times reported citing a spokesman for the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources.
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EU Donates MAD 465 Million to Fund Morocco's Noor III Solar Plant
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The Middle East region, near to the Tropic of Cancer, is a prime spot for solar electricity generation having ample sunlight for the larger part of the day. "The gulf region is one of the four major areas in the world ideal for harnessing solar energy on a mass level
"Shifting our dependence from the conventional methods of power generation to more viable and sustainable methods is a must, if we are to preserve the precious non-renewable resources for our future generations, and solar power is the most potent alternative," said Mohammed Hakim Tirmizi, Managing Director of Al Awal Group, leading manufacturers of solar power generation devices in Oman.
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Kuwait to build 100 solar-powered fuel stations
Kuwait is planning to build 100 solar-powered fuel stations in the next five years, said a report.
The stations will be installed, 20 at a time, Shukri Al-Mahrous, deputy chief executive officer of Kuwait National Petroleum Company, was quoted as saying by Kuna, the country's official news agency. The first 20 stations are expected to start operation by 2017, it added.
The project is part of KOC's efforts to increase reliance on renewable energy in generating electricity, he said.
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CONFERENCES & EXHIBITIONS
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Featured Event - Menasol - May 13 - 14, 2015 Dubai, UAE
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Meet leading policy makers and win projects to increase your profits in MENA
Begins Today !
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www.solargcc.com
Published by - Solar GCC Alliance
P.O. Box 16111 , RAK, U.A.E.
Email: info@solargcc.com
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