TUNIS, TUNISIA - Last Wednesday's savage terrorist attack in Tunis targeted the one country that has delivered on the promise of the Arab Spring by producing a real-and surprisingly liberal-democracy. In every other Arab country swept by mass pro-democracy protests in 2011 and 2012, hopes have been cruelly dashed.
Egypt struggles under a military-dominated dictatorship. Syria is mired in a civil war, and now Libya and more recently Yemen are sliding in the same direction. Democratic protests in Bahrain were brutally crushed by troops from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf neighbors, and nowhere else did protests reach a scale that seriously challenged autocracy.
Sometimes in history, small countries assume a strategic significance out of all proportion to their size. As the lone Arab country to move forward from popular upheaval to democracy, Tunisia is now vital to the future of the entire Arab world. The United States should bet very heavily, but smartly, on its future.
There is a sense of optimism and pride that this first Arab Spring country is the only one to successfully complete a democratic political transition. The parliamentary and presidential elections in late 2014 led to an inclusive coalition government, dominated by the secular bloc Nidaa Tounes, or Call of Tunisia, and the Islamist Nahda party. Though Nahda only holds one cabinet position, it still agreed to join the government rather than remain an opposition movement. Learning lessons from the disastrous rule of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Nahda decided against running a presidential candidate.
Coming in tandem with the optimism, though, are widespread concerns that the political achievements will not hold if leaders do not quickly deliver to the people. As one speaker at a conference I attended noted, Tunisia has had its political revolution, but the economic revolution hasn't begun. The main takeaway from the conference, well attended by Tunisia's top business elite and potential international investors, was that without economic development and investment, it would be difficult to lock in Tunisia's political gains and build a sustainable democracy in the Arab world.
The U.S. continues to rely on military tools to the detriment of political and economic levers in the Middle East. But Tunisia offers the opportunity to strike a better balance. Now is the time to double down and help Tunisia succeed.
Last week's terrorist attack in the country's capital was the first to kill civilians since 2002. Some analysts say secularist political gains may have fueled fringe Islamist groups.
Tunisians worry that such terrorism will scare off foreign tourists and investors whom Tunisia needs to revive its flagging economy. Another fear is that political violence will inflame domestic tensions and lead to heavy-handed security measures that erode civil liberties.
"This will be a key moment which will determine Tunisia's chances for development as well as its capacity to fight terrorism effectively and found a durable democracy," says Transport Minister Mahmoud Ben Romdhane, referring to a planned investment conference here.
"If we don't protect rights, democracy in Tunisia will fail," he says. "We achieved a revolution for democracy, freedom, and rights."
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For all its apparent madness, the Bardo attack seems driven by an icy logic: that the leaders they want to depose are too well protected to be easily targeted. Far better to aim for the soft underbelly of a state, in this case the economy.
Meanwhile, growing numbers of young Tunisians are leaving to join Islamic State in Syria, Iraq and Libya, radicalised by a sense of hopelessness that endures in a country with too many young men and not enough jobs.
Since its fall, crushed by Roman invasion, democracy vanished from Tunisia until it returned in 2011, only now to be threatened by an enemy within. "Terrorism hits all the countries of the world, we saw it in France, in the US, in Morocco, and they all survived," says tour guide Najib Tabouri. "We can survive it, too."
A strong, stable and prosperous Egypt is certainly in the best interest of the region and the United States. But, by largely supporting the country's increasingly authoritarian government without question, the United States is pursuing an unprincipled and dangerous policy.
Since Mr. Sisi took power in July 2013, following a wave of protests against the country's first democratically elected president, Mohamed Morsi, an Islamist, it has become increasingly clear that the Egyptian government has no intention of building democratic institutions or tolerating opposing views.
Administration officials said that Mr. Kerry favors continuing the military aid and is awaiting a final decision from the White House. If the aid is extended, the United States would be abetting Egypt's ruthless business as usual.
