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Apple's Cash, an Update

Earlier, we highlighted Apple's cash position, and wondered why investors would oppose Carl Icahn's propose for the company to increase its cash return by a modest $13 billion (below).

 

In its quarterly financial report yesterday, Apple pleasantly surprised investors by beating most analyst expectations. It also announced a "significant" increase in its cash return (share repurchase and dividend) program. While nice, it's actually not that significant, although it does exceed what Icahn proposed.

 

The increase entails an additional $30 billion in share repurchases and an increase in the dividend "on an annual basis". The share repurchase program thus went to $90 billion, from $60 billion. They increased this quarter's dividend 8%, too.

 

According to this helpful chart, Apple has $151 billion in cash right now. We estimate that it's on track to have $238 billion by 12/31/15, based on forecast operating cash flow, and before further repurchases and dividends.

 

Apple now plans to return to shareholders $65 billion of that cash ($44 billion in share repurchases, and $21 billion in forecast dividends). That will leave them with $173 billion in cash by the end of 2015.

 

Previously, they planned to return $35 billion to shareholders, relative to what they have today. That would have left them with $203 billion at the end of 2015. So, the increase in share repurchases reduces their forecast cash balance by about 15%.

 

How an investor thinks about this depends on what you want. You could view it as a 50% increase in cash return. You could also view it as responsive to investors like Icahn, who proposed an effective increase of $13 billion in cash return. Perhaps a good start.

 

Or, you could view it as a relatively small reduction in what are otherwise immense cash holdings. That's how we think about it.

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Resources and Advisory Services
Apple's Cash, an Accounting

Cash as of 12/28/13$159 billion 

 

Debt as of 12/28/13: $17 billion 

 

Net cash as of 12/28/13: $142 billion 

 

Operating cash flow generated, FQ1 2014: $23 billion ...


You can see where we're going with this. You can find the rest of the accounting for Apple's current and forecast cash, with an accounting of the recent debate about what to do with it, in current blog post.

 

Previous blog posts

 

Herbalife May Be a Great Trade, But It's Not an Activist Investment (February 4, 2014)

Why Does Carl Icahn Bother With Nonbinding Proposals? (January 28, 2014)

Proxy Access Plods Along (January 21, 2014)

You can find other useful resources at the TAI website, including our research on "Effective Activism, on the Cheap", our white paper with the basics on activist investing, and our new guides on exempt solicitationconsent solicitation, and special shareholder meetings.
For further information, or to discuss a specific turnaround situation, please contact:
 
Michael R. Levin
m.levin@theactivistinvestor.com
847.830.1479