Most of the major commercial real estate sectors show gradually improving fundamentals and are easily absorbing the relatively small amount of new space that is coming online, with a full recovery ahead in the multifamily market, according to the National Association of REALTORS® quarterly commercial real estate forecast published on November 26, 2012.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the market has been slowly building momentum. "Job creation is the key to increasing demand in the commercial real estate sectors," he said. "The economy is expected to grow 2.5 percent next year, and with modest job creation, assuming there is no fiscal cliff, the demand for commercial space will gradually rise. The greatest friction that remains is a tight credit environment, notably for

Vacancy rates over the next four quarters are forecast to decline 1.0 percentage point in the office market, 0.6 point in industrial, 0.2 point for retail and 0.1 point in multifamily; however, multifamily has the tightest availability and is experiencing the strongest rent increases, well above the rate of inflation.

"The primary factor holding back greater job creation has been uncertainty over regulations and associated costs," Yun said. "With the elections behind us and Washington apparently resolved to prevent a fiscal cliff, it's hoped that ambiguity over regulatory issues will clear relatively soon so employers can understand the rules of the game and the layout of the field."

NAR's latest Commercial Real Estate Outlook offers projections for four major commercial sectors and analyzes quarterly data in the office, industrial, retail and multifamily markets. Historic data for metro areas were provided by REIS, Inc., a source of commercial real estate performance information. 

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