Gasoline prices - which nearly dropped below $2 a gallon nationally in January before spiking almost 25% higher - could soon test multiyear lows again.
U.S. benchmark West Texas crude sank to $42.85 early Monday before settling off 2.1% to $43.88 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, a six-year low. Brent crude, the international benchmark, eased 2.3% to $53.44 in the wake of a burgeoning global supply glut and prospects of even more oil coming to market with a possible nuclear accord with Iran paving the way for higher Iranian exports.
The renewed slide in crude pushed U.S. wholesale gasoline prices for mid-April delivery down 2% to $1.72 a gallon. Currently, retail prices, down nine straight days, average $2.42 a gallon, up from $2.25 a month ago, after falling to $2.02 in late January.
"I think we could see a retest of $2.02 if crude doesn't stabilize soon,'' said Tom Kloza, chief analyst for the Oil Price Information Service. "The last time we saw (West Texas crude) settle below $43.50 a barrel in March 2009, the average retail price was about $1.93 a gallon."
After topping out above $107.23 a barrel last June, West Texas crude has tumbled almost 60%.
Monday's drop came after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said recent cutbacks in U.S. output may not tighten global supplies until late 2015. That followed Friday's news that U.S. crude inventories remain at record levels.
Weak demand and the lingering oil glut could be a boon for consumers, especially in California, where refinery woes had pushed prices up from $2.79 a gallon in mid-February to an average of $3.54 by last week.
With crude expected to continue tumbling, gas prices could have already topped well before the traditional late-April/early May peak.
"My sense is that many motorists will see retail prices below $2 a gallon in the actual (peak) driving season and that the national average will be below $2 somewhere between May and October," Kloza said.
Georgetown University professor Brenda Shaffer, a specialist on energy and foreign policy who has long analyzed the ties between geopolitics and oil prices, says given how much global oil is currently stored in inventory, just the prospects of higher Iranian oil exports will send global oil prices plummeting.
"We are a long ways away from seeing significantly more Iranian oil in the market,'' Shaffer said. "But U.S. demand isn't picking up. And oil storage is near capacity. Iran just adds another bite to the market and will result in a dip in prices."