Denver Money Manager, LLC 
January, 2013
In This Issue
What Can Investors Learn from the 2013 Stock Market Behavior?
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Denver Money Manager strives to empower people to achieve balance in their lives and experience financial serenity by integrating their finances with their life's passions and purpose.

 

What can investors learn from the 2013 stock market behavior?

 

Surprise! Stocks were the big winners in 2013

  

The unusually strong performance of global stocks in 2013 was a welcome surprise. To some experts, it wasn't supposed to look like this. A Barron's cover story appearing in November 2012 warned investors to "get ready for the recession of 2013." The title of a Time article on the outlook for financial markets that same month shouted, "Why Stocks Are Dead". A prominent economic forecaster who predicted the downturn in 2008 suggested that four elements-stagnating US economic growth, the European debt crisis, a slump in emerging markets, and military conflict in the Middle East-could combine and lead to a "superstorm".

  

With so many economic hobgoblins to frighten them, many investors found it easy to dismiss more positive developments as unsustainable or irrelevant. Below is a sampling of the 2013 financial headlines:

January 12

"Rebirth of Equities Ain't Necessarily So," Financial Times

February 8

"Scant Pickup in Economic Growth Seen for 2013," Wall Street Journal

March 7

"Stock Markets Defy Economic Woes," Financial Times

April 2

"Lesser Expectations: Earnings Hopes Dim for First Quarter," USA Today

May 18

"Stock Market Optimism on This Scale Hard to Explain," Financial Times

July 7

"As Investors Rush in, Stocks Are Sending Warning Signals," Wall Street Journal

August 24

"Lofty Profit Margins Hint at Pain to Come for U.S. Shares," Wall Street Journal

September 18

"Profits Boost Needed for Wall Street's Equities Run," Michael Mackenzie, Financial Times

October 7

"Get Ready For a Drop in Stock Prices," Shefali Anand, Wall Street Journal

November 16

"Is This a Bubble?" Joe Light, Wall Street Journal

 

What can investors learn from this year's market behavior?

Most of us accept the idea that predicting the future is difficult, and predicting how other investors will respond to unpredictable events is even harder still. But, for some investment advisors and their clients, the temptation to engage in such efforts is irresistible. If only we could do so, we could be superheroes to our clients. We could have the satisfaction of outwitting other clever market participants. We would be so attractive to prospective clients that there would be a line standing at our door. However, the results from this past year teach us that we should be skeptical of anyone's ability to do this well enough to outperform our "simple but not easy" investment discipline. So, we resist the temptation to predict.

 

 However, we can guarantee the 2014 headlines will be just as frightening as 2013 so stick with our "simple but not easy" investment discipline, namely: focus on what you can control, globally diversify your money, own multiple asset classes, measure you goals and risk tolerance, buy, hold, and rebalance your asset allocation. When investors are studying the long-run record of US stock market returns several years from now, we suspect many of them will find it difficult to recall exactly what it was that they were so worried about that discouraged them from pursuing the capital market rewards that were there for the taking. That won't be the case for Denver Money Manager clients.

 

What are we telling clients to do right now?

Resist the temptation to abandon your allocation to bonds, real estate, emerging market stocks, or international developed stocks in favor of chasing the returns in the U.S. stock market. Rising interest rates is good news not bad news for investors because it means the economy is recovering and savers can expect more interest income. In the short term, bonds play an important role in stabilizing the volatility of your portfolio. Do not sell you bond investments but keep the bond maturities under 5 years. Given the stock market returns of the last 5 years, a priority for 2014 is to re-measure client's tolerance for risk in relationship to their current allocation and financial goals. Happy New Year!

  

 
Thank you for the opportunity to be of service.
 
The Denver Money Manager Team
Aaron, Rob, Paula, and Joel
 
 
 
 

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